EPAC: GUILLERMO - Post-Tropical

TheStormExpert · #181 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 9:57 pm

00z Model Guidance :darrow:

Slight left shift in models again.

TheStormExpert · #182 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 10:02 pm

Left shift in NHC track, Hawaii should really monitor Guillermo.

#183 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 10:03 pm

Models have been following the ECMWF, track wise.

I wonder if they will keep trending west and then eventually miss the state to the south.

#184 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 10:09 pm

Kingarabian wrote::uarrow: Models have been following the ECMWF, track wise.

I wonder if they will keep trending west and then eventually miss the state to the south.

None of the ECMWF runs lately have shown that. That'd be interesting though.

#185 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 10:15 pm

Code: Select all

             ----- Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  31 JUL 2015    Time :   023000 UTC
      Lat :   11:11:42 N     Lon :  129:50:06 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                4.1 / 987.3mb/ 67.4kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                4.1     4.5     5.3

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 26 km

 Center Temp : -24.4C    Cloud Region Temp : -61.0C

 Scene Type : EYE

Disregard this. Center fix off.

#186 Postby **Alyono** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 11:35 pm

MU has this approaching Hawaii, but it again is badly sheared

#187 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 11:40 pm

Alyono wrote:MU has this approaching Hawaii, but it again is badly sheared

Yes, and more west with a Maui landfall rather than the Big Island.

Also has a strong TS rather than a hurricane.

#188 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 11:44 pm

Eye wall has really contracted. Could be a big eye once it clears.

#189 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 12:02 am

#190 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 12:11 am

Looks 65-70kntish right now. Microwave still has the double eyewall, so possible ERC?

#191 Postby **Alyono** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 12:13 am

thats not a double eyewall. That's a poorly defined core

#192 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 12:25 am

Alyono wrote:thats not a double eyewall. That's a poorly defined core

I've seen worse in declared hurricanes.

#193 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 12:38 am

Looks like it wants to RI, but it's MW presentation may not be ready.

#194 Postby **Alyono** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 12:56 am

not RIing

almost appears to be mid level shear or something

There is some parameter we are missing that is causing the dynamical models to keep this weak for the most part

#195 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 1:06 am

#196 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 1:10 am

Alyono wrote:not RIing

almost appears to be mid level shear or something

There is some parameter we are missing that is causing the dynamical models to keep this weak for the most part

Interesting. Forgot about mid level shear.

Other than core development questions, what other signs do you see?

#197 Postby **Alyono** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 1:25 am

EC appears very weak and south of Hawaii

#198 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 1:35 am

#199 Postby **Alyono** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 1:43 am

ec passes south of Hawaii as an open wave

TheStormExpert · #200 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 3:30 am

Mid level Wind Shear might be an issue. Wind Shear on the other hand seems fine.

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