ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

Still looks decent for what it's been up against.

[cycloneye]

The end is almost here.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak and elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
have become less favorable, and development of this system, if any,
should be slow to occur while it moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg

[NDG]

And whoever thought 94L had a good chance of developing once it gets away from the extreme eastern Atlantic's MDR into the much drier and stable environment of the MDR was blindfolded

[wxman57]

:uarrow: And whoever thought 94L had a good chance of developing once it gets away from the extreme eastern Atlantic's MDR into the much drier and stable environment of the MDR was blindfolded

That's why I said that I thought the NHC's probabilities were backwards. Best chances of development were before it tracks west into the dry/sinking air, not beyond 48 hrs.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

:uarrow: And whoever thought 94L had a good chance of developing once it gets away from the extreme eastern Atlantic's MDR into the much drier and stable environment of the MDR was blindfolded

Youre kidding, right? Nobody on here would have said such foolishness. You mean to tell me this wasn't going to develop next week?

[NDG]

:uarrow: And whoever thought 94L had a good chance of developing once it gets away from the extreme eastern Atlantic's MDR into the much drier and stable environment of the MDR was blindfolded

Youre kidding, right? Nobody on here would have said such foolishness. You mean to tell me this wasn't going to develop next week?

My point was that some were putting too much stock on the not so reliant Tropical Modeks like the SHIPS which was forecasting 94L to be a hurricane in the middle of the Atlantic's MDR where is bone dry. We know from the past it takes time for conditions to change, it doesn't change overnight, the dry and stable conditions end up winning and sting tropical waves end up drying up into the dusty air. We may not see the MDR moisten up some until at least 2 weeks from not not longer.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I knew what you meant, was just being sarcastic. Just like the models were showing a east coast storm or hurricane this week and look how well that panned out.

[TheStormExpert]

I knew what you meant, was just being sarcastic. Just like the models were showing a east coast storm or hurricane this week and look how well that panned out.

The problem there IMO was the shear forecast was way off.

[gatorcane]

This system probably will not make it but from what the GFS is showing, there may be a train of systems coming off Africa within the next 10-14 days and this system is basically just a sacrificial wave helping to put a dent in the dry and stable conditions across the MDR which could allow these other systems to develop.

[WPBWeather]

This system probably will not make it but from what the GFS is showing, there may be a train of systems coming off Africa within the next 10-14 days and this system is basically just a sacrificial wave helping to put a dent in the dry and stable conditions across the MDR which could allow these other systems to develop.

And that is the take away point Gator that some others seem to not get...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Or on the flip side theres others that cant see the forest through the trees and insist on living in fantasy land chasing rainbows and unicorns everyday thinking every cloud swirl and storm has a chance to develop regardless what conditions and others might say.

[WPBWeather]

Or on the flip side theres others that cant see the forest through the trees and insist on living in fantasy land chasing rainbows and unicorns everyday thinking every cloud swirl and storm has a chance to develop regardless what conditions and others might say.

No trolling, please...

[floridasun78]

lastest sat pic of 94l

[tolakram]

Or on the flip side theres others that cant see the forest through the trees and insist on living in fantasy land chasing rainbows and unicorns everyday thinking every cloud swirl and storm has a chance to develop regardless what conditions and others might say.

Come on Mike, it's a discussion forum where folks have fun discussing the weather. There's no need for this kind of statement, you can simply ignore the threads you don't care to read.

[floridasun78]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 312334
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
have become less favorable, and development of this system, if any,
should be slow to occur while it moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Bye.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms near a weak area of low pressure located
well to the west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands have been
diminishing. Environmental conditions are not favorable, and
development of this system is not expected while it moves westward
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

Forecaster Berg

[wxman57]

It may not be completely dead, as it could become an East Pacific storm in 10 days or so.

[northjaxpro]

So, no Bones appearance uh wxman57 for 94L

[NDG]

Looking at the TPW loop it seems that the system's leftovers will be swallowed by the ITCZ and may loose its identity of a tropical wave.

[Sanibel]

Small center burst in increasing SSTs.