Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico: (Is Invest 95L)

[northjaxpro]

Can someone.help me out? We have lots of reporting stations with up to 40 mph pressure now down to 29.78 at one bouy. Well defined low. Why is this not being called a t.d. sometimes it seems.if a.model or nhc doesn't forecast it, they are hesitant to call it quickly. Not trying to flame them, it just seems they're slower to pull the trigger. Just my opinion of course and I could be totally wrong.

As I just mentioned, if this Low somehow manages to confound us all and the experts at the NHC and stay over water a bit while longer, I think this will be classified as a TD, possibly a minimal TS, based on the current trends. Not an official forecast of course, just my educated opinion.

[psyclone]

I'd guess this doesn't meet their persistence requirement yet. And if it moves over land soon (it's so close) it won't matter. OTOH if it keeps drifting south it will have more water to play with. As usual I'd go with their current thoughts.

[NDG]

4 hr radar shows to me that it has been moving SSE, convection increasing on the southern quadrant.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displ ... duration=4

[caneman]

Ok. Thanks

[Sanibel]

I think WX57 will win this argument.

[northjaxpro]

Yes, the Low it has been on this steady slow south/southeast drift for nearly 24 hours now, definitely not anticipated for that length of time, let alone drifting back over Apalachee Bay.

[caneman]

The bad.thing is that if it drift.another 29 or 30 miles south, it will have.more water to work with.

[NDG]

Some area reports near the low pressure center have been reporting dewpoints in the low 80s, wow!

[tolakram]

I just looked at the radar you all have been looking at. Agree, S/SE, sorry I did not look before. Tropics are always interesting!

[ronjon]

Looking at RAD trends, the center may be tightening due to the frictional effects of land nearby.

[NDG]

I think WX57 will win this argument.

Last time he chimed in this is what he had to say, obviously it was not inland and it has not moved inland yet like models had forecasted.

Weak low-level swirl has moved inland into the eastern FL panhandle. Pressures are starting to rise across the NE Gulf. No evidence of any rotation in offshore obs. Development chances remain near zero.

[NCSTORMMAN]

How long can it keep doing this southward movement. What is to stop it from continuing south?

[ronjon]

Also a large part of the shoreline up there is coastal swamp for 20 miles inland so interaction with land probably not a big deal in the near term.

[northjaxpro]

The Low is drifting literally. It has basically moved about 60 miles in 24 hours to the South/Southeast. That is only about 2.5 miles per hour folks. Talk about drifting. But, it has found the warm waters of Apalachee Bay and for the past 4 hours, it is really beginning to organize better. It is definitely not a naked swirl like earlier today that's for sure. Banding keeps improving on the southeast quadrant.

[psyclone]

Banding is impressive especially on the south. It sure looks like a TD.

[tailgater]

Can someone.help me out? We have lots of reporting stations with up to 40 mph pressure now down to 29.78 at one bouy. Well defined low. Why is this not being called a t.d. sometimes it seems.if a.model or nhc doesn't forecast it, they are hesitant to call it quickly. Not trying to flame them, it just seems they're slower to pull the trigger. Just my opinion of course and I could be totally wrong.

I'd like to hear the reasoning behind that also. Earlier it was void of convection but the last 3 or 4 hrs it would or should qualify( IMHO)

[NDG]

These are some of the strong winds south of the low pressure area during convection free time at Clearwater Beach.

Code: Select all

08   02   4:18 pm        SW   28.0   36.9   -   -   -   -   29.91   -   81.7   81.9   -   -   -   -

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=cwbf1

[NDG]

The Low is drifting literally. It has basically moved about 60 miles in 24 hours to the South/Southeast. That is only about 2.5 miles per hour folks. Talk about drifting. But, it has found the warm waters of Apalachee Bay and for the past 4 hours, it is really beginning to organize better. It is definitely not a naked swirl like earlier today that's for sure. Banding keeps improving on the southeast quadrant.

Notice how the upper level winds have changed, they are lighter and westerly now, that most be helping it get convection closer to the COC during the day today.

[psyclone]

It's a washing machine on the coast of Pinellas county. Even the intracoastal is whipped into a frenzy.

[northjaxpro]

The Low is drifting literally. It has basically moved about 60 miles in 24 hours to the South/Southeast. That is only about 2.5 miles per hour folks. Talk about drifting. But, it has found the warm waters of Apalachee Bay and for the past 4 hours, it is really beginning to organize better. It is definitely not a naked swirl like earlier today that's for sure. Banding keeps improving on the southeast quadrant.

Notice how the upper level winds have changed, they are lighter and westerly now, that most be helping it get convection closer to the COC during the day today.

Apparently NDG, the Low has found a decent lull with the shear obviously with the sudden organization the past 4 hours. Convection is definitely wrapping now into the circulation center, to go along with convective activity increasing in intensity as well, especially on the south and southeast quadrant. This is looking more and more like a classified tropical cyclone with each passing minute currently as far as I am concerned.