2015 WPAC Season

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More people getting affected...



Most models bring a westward moving MJO into the WPAC and strengthening it there likely due to a Rossby Wave currently near the dateline...

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Looks like anywhere from the Marianas, Micronesia, Northern Philippines to Japan is the target the next 2 weeks from TC's...

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Models still developing Molave right behind Soudelor...

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GFS still developing Molave and possibly Goni but weak while EURO makes Molave a full fledge TS right behind Soudelor...

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Here comes Molave and both GFS and EURO makes it a typhoon. GFS crosses this over Okinawa and threatens China and EURO recurves it before reaching Japan...

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EURO Typhoon Molave southeast of Japan...



GFS Molave

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06Z GFS hinting on Goni and Atsani following Molave...

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All models agree that a piece of energy from Soudelor will break off within the monsoon trough and develop into Molave right over the Marianas. NWS has been saying that we could expect 6-10 inches of rain from this...

JMA



NAVGEM




CMC



EURO




GFS strengthens this to a Category 5...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Stats as of August 2

2014: 11/5/3 ACE: 90*
2015: 13/8/4 ACE: 210**

*Halong intensifying
**Soudelor rapidly intensifying (possibly STY or cat 5)

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979 mb Molave...



Formation and Peak...

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06Z GFS still hinting on Goni and Atsani long range but keeps them weak...

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Not going to post all of the 06Z GFS runs because it is a bit crazy if it pans out...

Here is Molave developing east of the Marianas and after that, it's a bit hectic...



It develops 5 more tropical cyclones crawling like ants over the basin from southern China getting hit, the southern Ryukyu islands and even Tokyo getting brushed...

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EURO with Molave and in long range Goni east of the Northern Marianas and Guam...

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96W THREAD HERE

Here comes Molave...

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http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

The August 5th update is out and expect a very very active season...

30 tropical storms
20 typhoons
13 intense typhoons
ACE 448

That's a substantial increase from the May update...

May 6th activity forecast:

27 tropical storms
17 typhoons
11 intense typhoons
ACE 400

TSR raises its forecast and predicts the 2015 Northwest Pacific typhoon season will be
hyperactive with activity about one and a half standard deviations above the 1965-2014
climate norm. It will be the most active typhoon season since at least 2004.

It should be stressed that uncertainties remain in the August-September ENSO forecast and thus in the
seasonal typhoon forecast. [b]However, the expectation of a hyperactive 2015 Northwest Pacific typhoon
season is supported by the current ACE Index (through 5th August). Its value of 228 is the highest since
reliable records began in 1965 and is almost three times the climatological ACE value through 5th
August.

There is a 94% probability that the 2015 NW Pacific typhoon season ACE index will be above-average
(defined as an ACE index value in the upper tercile historically (>322)), a 6% likelihood it will be nearnormal
(defined as an ACE index value in the middle tercile historically (238 to 322) and no chance it
will be below-normal (defined as an ACE index value in the lower tercile historically (<238)). The 50-
year period 1965-2014 is used for climatology.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

So far this year ACE
Jan 3.2125
Feb 7.945
Mar 20.7225
Apr 14.6375
May 60.5875
Jun 0.975
Jul 98.12
Aug 21.22 and increasing

Tentative Total 227.42

[xtyphooncyclonex]

West Pacific ACE though August (El Niño Years)

228.9125 --- 1972
202.2725 --- 1976
33.4275 --- 1977
196.6025 --- 1982
150.3975 --- 1986
177.8025 --- 1987
123.0025 --- 1991
143.5750 --- 1992
180.2725 --- 1994
235.7075 --- 1997
273.4130 --- 2002
289.5705 --- 2004
140.7650 --- 2006
63.6150 --- 2009
127.6075 --- 2014
236.2025 --- 2015 thru Aug 07 06z

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EURO showing Goni developing near the Marianas but recurves it...




The Marianas the hotspot globally...

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Goni east of the Marianas and Atsani developing in the Philippine Sea...

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Looking like monsters in the making. Nice, beautiful, but deadly...

Next names to be used:

Goni- A swan; symbol of loyalty

Atsani- Lightning flash

Etau- Palauan word for Storm cloud