WPAC: SOUDELOR - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  03 AUG 2015    Time : 133000 UTC
      Lat :   17:32:55 N     Lon :  141:26:16 E

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                6.8 / 924.4mb/134.8kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                6.8     7.0     7.3

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km

 Center Temp :  +5.5C    Cloud Region Temp : -81.3C

 Scene Type : EYE

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING
NR 18//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 268 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AFTER A BRIEF WEAKENING PERIOD DUE TO AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, STY 13W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AS
DEPICTED IN ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH DEPICTS A 20-
NM EYE. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, STY 13W HAS INTENSIFIED FROM 90
KNOTS TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE JUMPED AS HIGH AS T7.0 (140 KNOTS), HOWEVER, THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS CONSERVATIVELY HELD AT AN AVERAGE OF
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T6.5 (RJTD) TO T7.0 (PGTW). A 031204Z METOP-B
89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A COMPACT 50 TO 60NM DIAMETER EYEWALL WITH TIGHTLY-
CURVED SPIRAL BANDING. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW RADIAL OUTFLOW, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY
FURTHER. IN ADDITION, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE NEAR 31
CELSIUS. STY SOUDELOR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED FROM 135 TO 150 KNOTS WITH STY INTENSITY OCCURRING QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
B. STY 13W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
WELL-ESTABLISHED STR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR STY 13W TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS, MAINTAINING SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER
TAU 48, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE
LEADING TO GRADUAL WEAKENING.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY 13W WILL START TO WEAKEN DUE TO
REDUCED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, LOWER SSTS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VWS
TO MODERATE LEVELS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, STY SOUDELOR
WILL BEGIN TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF TAIWAN, WHICH
WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF
LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH SUPPORTS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Code: Select all

                     UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.2.1               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  03 AUG 2015    Time : 140000 UTC
      Lat :   17:34:53 N     Lon :  141:20:29 E

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                6.9 / 921.8mb/137.4kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                6.9     7.1     7.3

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

 Center Temp :  +7.3C    Cloud Region Temp : -80.8C

 Scene Type : EYE 

 Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

 Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC 
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC   

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.7T/12hr
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :  115km
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1006mb

 Satellite Name :  MTSAT2
 Satellite Viewing Angle : 21.0 degrees


[Yellow Evan]

What agency is RTGD? This is not a T6.5.

[Ntxw]

I would agree this looks like 145+knots at least.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 AUG 2015 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 17:37:01 N Lon : 141:14:21 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.1 / 916.3mb/143.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.1 7.2 7.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

Center Temp : +8.6C Cloud Region Temp : -79.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 115km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 21.1 degrees

[euro6208]

What agency is RTGD? This is not a T6.5.

RJTD

JMA?

[euro6208]

2015AUG03 143200 7.5 904.0 155.0 7.5 7.5 7.5

Solid 7.5 155 knots across the boards...

ADT 8.1.4

[Yellow Evan]

What agency is RTGD? This is not a T6.5.

RJTD

JMA?

Doubtful, since the JMA follows only their Dvorak and they're at like 100 knts or 7.0 on their scale.

[euro6208]

What agency is RTGD? This is not a T6.5.

RJTD

JMA?

Doubtful, since the JMA follows only their Dvorak and they're at like 100 knts or 7.0 on their scale.

Just googled and it is JMA. It's listed on top of their weather maps...But why isn't JTWC including ADT in their warnings is beyond me...

[Yellow Evan]

RJTD

JMA?

Doubtful, since the JMA follows only their Dvorak and they're at like 100 knts or 7.0 on their scale.

Just googled and it is JMA. It's listed on top of their weather maps...

Oh right. 100 knts on JMA scale is 6.5.

But on no planet is this a T6.5. This is pushing T8.0.

[euro6208]

The eye is the warmest it's ever been now +8.6 although cloud tops have warmed a bit...

[Yellow Evan]

New frame is at WMG status.

[Yellow Evan]

Once again, I don't like the JTWC fix.

Code: Select all

TPPN10 PGTW 031529

A. SUPER TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR)

B. 03/1432Z

C. 17.60N

D. 141.30E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.5. MET YIELDS A 7.0, WHILE PT YIELDS A 6.5. DBO MET.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   CHAPPOTIN

First of all, eye aint ragged. Second of all, at the 1432z frame, eye is OW. Ring if CMG, but the Ow eye is surrounded by CDG (CDG rules for Dvorak are unwritten). Also MET is 7.5. No need to not use DT when it's clear cut anyhow.

[Yellow Evan]

Likely nearing 155 knts.

Code: Select all

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  03 AUG 2015    Time : 150000 UTC
      Lat :   17:39:04 N     Lon :  141:14:57 E

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                7.1 / 916.3mb/143.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                7.1     7.2     7.3

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

 Center Temp : +12.1C    Cloud Region Temp : -80.3C

 Scene Type : EYE 

 Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

 Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC 
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC   

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.7T/12hr
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :  115km
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1006mb

 Satellite Name :  MTSAT2
 Satellite Viewing Angle : 21.1 degrees

[1900hurricane]

It's not atypical for cloudtops to warm a little bit as the eye clears out. Once the eye temp drops deep into the teens, this will be analyzed as a 155-160 kt storm. I'm very impressed.

[Yellow Evan]

03/1501 UTC 17.6N 141.2E T7.0/7.0 SOUDELOR -- West Pacific

[euro6208]

eye temp just shot up to +12.1C and cloud tops cooled a bit...

[euro6208]

eye temp is warmer now +13.6C

[euro6208]

Hope JTWC updates the BT early like earlier today...

This is easily cat 5...