WPAC: SOUDELOR - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Probs near 160. Eye per ADT is at 15C and has likely warmed since.

[Ntxw]

Not just should be cat 5, could make the argument strongest storm of the year to date.

[1900hurricane]

Not just should be cat 5, could make the argument strongest storm of the year to date.

Agree with this. In terms of just comparing eye temp to CDO temp (an imperfect, but simple metric to keep track of), Soudelor now almost has a full degree of difference up on Maysak, which previously had the largest delta of the year.

[Yellow Evan]

Not just should be cat 5, could make the argument strongest storm of the year to date.

Agree with this. In terms of just comparing eye temp to CDO temp (an imperfect, but simple metric to keep track of), Soudelor now almost has a full degree of difference up on Maysak, which previously had the largest delta of the year.

Probs agree, but you can't forget about Pam.

[Yellow Evan]

TPPN10 PGTW 031815

A. SUPER TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR)

B. 03/1732Z

C. 17.76N

D. 140.75E

E. FOUR/MTSAT

F. T7.5/7.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.5. MET YIELDS A 7.0 AND PT YIELDS A 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


BERMEA

[1900hurricane]

Not just should be cat 5, could make the argument strongest storm of the year to date.

Agree with this. In terms of just comparing eye temp to CDO temp (an imperfect, but simple metric to keep track of), Soudelor now almost has a full degree of difference up on Maysak, which previously had the largest delta of the year.

Probs agree, but you can't forget about Pam.

Pam is a bit of a wild card. At the time of the maximum delta, the CDO was colder than any other storm I've looked at with this method except for Haiyan, but lackluster eye temps really held it back in terms of this metric. Maysak, Noul, Dolphin, and now Soudelor have all exceeded Pam's delta so far this year. Like I said though, it's a simple and easy metric to keep track of, but it's also far from perfect.

[gatorcane]

nice looking system and what an eye!

[cycloneye]

13W SOUDELOR 150803 1800 17.8N 140.7E WPAC 155 907

[Yellow Evan]

Cloud tops warming on the NE side. Seems to be peaking, but this is a truly special typhoon nevertheless.

[1900hurricane]

The 1830 eye temp is really something. It's yet to be seen if it hangs around that high for more than one frame, but if it manages to stay around 18*C for a few hours, I'd feel comfortable with going up to 160 kt by the next update.

[cycloneye]

JMA goes to the very top as they don't usually do this and now SOUDELOR is the strongest system of the WPAC 2015 season so far.

TY 1513 (SOUDELOR)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 3 August 2015
<Analyses at 03/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N17°50'(17.8°)
E140°50'(140.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 900hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(115kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(165kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL190km(100NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N390km(210NM)
S330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 04/06 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N18°30'(18.5°)
E138°30'(138.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 900hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(115kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(165kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 04/18 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N19°00'(19.0°)
E136°30'(136.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 900hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(115kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(165kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL310km(170NM)

<Forecast for 05/18 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N20°10'(20.2°)
E131°55'(131.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 910hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 06/18 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N21°30'(21.5°)
E127°20'(127.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 915hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL460km(250NM

[galaxy401]

Still has a day or two to try and strengthen a little more unless the EWRC keeps getting in the way.

What is the lowest pressure JMA ever did for a typhoon? I recall Haiyan was 895.

[Yellow Evan]

Still has a day or two to try and strengthen a little more unless the EWRC keeps getting in the way.

What is the lowest pressure JMA ever did for a typhoon? I recall Haiyan was 895.

Tip 870 mbar

[CrazyC83]

Still has a day or two to try and strengthen a little more unless the EWRC keeps getting in the way.

What is the lowest pressure JMA ever did for a typhoon? I recall Haiyan was 895.

Lowest without Recon I know of is 895.

I'm thinking the pressure of this monster is as low as Haiyan, since it is in an area of lower ambient pressures and a higher latitude. As for its intensity, 155 kt seems reasonable.

[1900hurricane]

Aside from Haiyan, JMA has not given a minimum pressure of below 900 mb without supporting recon data since 1991. Even getting to 900 mb is a rare thing from them.

http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/cgi-bin/dt/search_name2.pl?lang=en&upp=870&sy=1906&lowp=900&ey=2015&basin=wnp&name=

[CrazyC83]

Clearly a T7.5 right now. Needs the dark gray to wrap around for a T8.0 (it's about 40% of the way there). Good case for 160 kt perhaps.

[cycloneye]

Track shifts a little bit to the south.

[euro6208]

wow...

13W SOUDELOR 150803 1800 17.8N 140.7E WPAC 155 907

[1900hurricane]

Clearly a T7.5 right now. Needs the dark gray to wrap around for a T8.0 (it's about 40% of the way there). Good case for 160 kt perhaps.

Yeah, I'm feeling 160 kt all the way provided it more or less holds steady for a couple more hours. The sun will be coming up soon which may warm the tops a little, but I'm quite looking forward to some spectacular visible imagery.

[Alyono]

I went 145 kts at 21Z. Likely going to have another EWRC soon based upon microwave imagery. That said, winds at taiwan landfall could be 145 kts or higher.

I did hear, however, from a friend of mine from Taiwan that the structures are TC proof there. The rains are the main threat