Texas Summer-2015

[Tejas89]

This is the longest DFW airport has gone without rain since 2006.

[Brent]

I know just when you think maybe the worst is over... August happens.

5 weeks til Labor Day... 5 weeks til Labor Day.

Sept 4, 2000 Labor day...DFW maxed out at 111 just sayin

Oh don't make it worse...

Ugh the meteogram on the GFS is even worse next week... closer to 110 and no end in sight. What happened to el nino being more tolerable? We're gonna rack up the 100 days in short order even if it's too warm!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

In 2011, i remember the 500 heights being over 600 DM. Today its not even cracking 597 so this High is nowhere near as strong thank goodness.

[weatherdude1108]

I guess after the 2nd wettest May (wettest month of year climatologically), had to balance it out with one of driest July's (driest month of year climatologically). Talking of Austin area. Meteorological Law of Averages I guess. Hmmm.

[Brent]

I guess after the 2nd wettest May (wettest month of year climatologically), had to balance it out with one of driest July's (driest month of year climatologically). Talking of Austin area. Meteorological Law of Averages I guess. Hmmm.

Hasn't rained in DFW since July 8th... got a decent streak going and honestly I don't see anything on the horizon before August 15th at least.

[gboudx]

Steve McCauleys latest comment supports the searing heat next week of 105-110. Meh, it'll be over soon enough. Days are getting shorter and El Niño is strong. Let summer have its fun for a bit. We do live in Texas afterall. Just par for the course. I just hope ERCOT has enough energy to supply the demand next week.

[Ntxw]

I guess after the 2nd wettest May (wettest month of year climatologically), had to balance it out with one of driest July's (driest month of year climatologically). Talking of Austin area. Meteorological Law of Averages I guess. Hmmm.

Well it isn't exactly even . Having the wettest month being the wettest month of the year is a bigger anomaly than having the driest month during the driest month. Now having the driest month during what should be the wettest month hurts (this is the big culprit to long term drought when springs and falls are dry) more since not much rain falls during the dry months anyway. But I feel ya lawn is dry as a bone now.

Anyway yeah, rain prospects do not look good the next week to two sadly. Starting to lose the green which of course is a feedback mechanism. All El Nino's revert back to wet falls so eventually it will come to an end and get very wet again. Just have to ride this out. All signals actually point to a wet pattern, however the summer climo ridge is tough, I guess when it decides to leave the background state of the Nino should take over. Learning well the same signals do not mean the same in every season.

And to TPB this ridge is nothing like 2011's ridge I agree, it has been persistent though since late July. The longer it sticks around gradually feedback has to occur but nothing like then because the calendar is much later now.

[vbhoutex]

I guess after the 2nd wettest May (wettest month of year climatologically), had to balance it out with one of driest July's (driest month of year climatologically). Talking of Austin area. Meteorological Law of Averages I guess. Hmmm.

Well it isn't exactly even . Having the wettest month being the wettest month of the year is a bigger anomaly than having the driest month during the driest month. Now having the driest month during what should be the wettest month hurts (this is the big culprit to long term drought when springs and falls are dry) more since not much rain falls during the dry months anyway. But I feel ya lawn is dry as a bone now.

Anyway yeah, rain prospects do not look good the next week to two sadly. Starting to lose the green which of course is a feedback mechanism. All El Nino's revert back to wet falls so eventually it will come to an end and get very wet again. Just have to ride this out. All signals actually point to a wet pattern, however the summer climo ridge is tough, I guess when it decides to leave the background state of the Nino should take over. Learning well the same signals do not mean the same in every season.

And to TPB this ridge is nothing like 2011's ridge I agree, it has been persistent though since late July. The longer it sticks around gradually feedback has to occur but nothing like then because the calendar is much later now.

Ah, a point I hadn't thought about concerning the feedback, but you are correct. Thanks for opening my mind up this morning. Hoping for the fall portion to start early!! Like you we went from one of wettest to one of the driest(2nd) May to July here in Houston. Not as hot as 2011 but bringing back memories with our last 2 weeks of 100f plus or minus 1 or 2 degrees every day.

[wxman57]

Here's a meteogram from the overnight run of the GFS. Had to adjust that vertical scale twice to contain its predictions of next week's temperatures. Euro indicates 850mb temps peaking next Monday as well - an indication that Monday would be the hottest day.

Time to head out on a long bike ride and enjoy the warm temps this weekend!



For Dallas, it's just as hot - but it's a dry heat (very dry):

[Ntxw]

112 in Houston? GFS is nuts, 109 is the hottest temperature there on record!

[weatherdude1108]

Here's a meteogram from the overnight run of the GFS. Had to adjust that vertical scale twice to contain its predictions of next week's temperatures. Euro indicates 850mb temps peaking next Monday as well - an indication that Monday would be the hottest day.

Time to head out on a long bike ride and enjoy the warm temps this weekend!

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs6zaug4.gif

For Dallas, it's just as hot - but it's a dry heat (very dry):
http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dfwgfs6zaug4.gif

Can you run the one for Austin, just for grins?

[weatherdude1108]

112 in Houston? GFS is nuts, 109 is the hottest temperature there on record!

Yeah, that seems suspect.

[Tejas89]

I'm guessing DFW will be teasing some record lows as is pretty common in our summers nowadays... but those meteograms also mean record highs.

[Tireman4]

112 in Houston? GFS is nuts, 109 is the hottest temperature there on record!

I agree. There is one thing that is troubling me. We are losing our buffer ( moisture in the ground). Without it, the temperatures really can rise. 112 is so way out of thinking, I am not sure if I put stock in it. Like I told Brooks Garner, I could see 102-105 around here. I am glad you are liking this Wxman 57. You and your thermostat. I just hope we get cold this Winter. .

[weatherdude1108]

We need PATIENCE PATIENCE PATIENCE.
Bob Rose 12:01pm update. Basically, even more of this Death Ridge fun.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

Next week's temperatures are shaping up to be the hottest so far this summer. This morning's long-range forecast data indicates the sunny, dry and hot pattern will continue and grow stronger as the high pressure ridge strengthens and remains centered over Texas. High temperatures throughout the week are forecast to be around 104/105 degrees.

Looking out longer range, the latest long-range data continues to show little overall change in the pattern through the end of the month. While the temperature is forecast to moderate down a couple of degrees, no significant rain is expected over the next 2-3 weeks.

The mirage continues.

[Ntxw]

12Z euro moves the ridge a little westward after Monday with deep eastern Conus trof bringing NW Flow to Texas which is a little less oppressive. However it is a 7+ day frame so we know the drill.

[wxman57]

112 in Houston? GFS is nuts, 109 is the hottest temperature there on record!

Of course, that's raw GFS data. However, I've never seen the GFS forecast 112F for Houston before. I'm away from my PC now so I can't plot 12z (or Austin).

[weatherdude1108]

No surprise here over the short term.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/e ... mmary.html

[Tireman4]

No surprise here over the short term.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/e ... mmary.html

Gee, I could have said that...and I know nothing...

[weatherdude1108]

No surprise here over the short term.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/e ... mmary.html

Gee, I could have said that...and I know nothing...