ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[Nimbus]

Surface pressures at the Tampa buoy rose this morning as has been reported.
Does look like that vortex is headed east off the Georgia coastline.
Maybe the shear is lighter now and the convection won't get blown off?

[tropicwatch]

Looks like convection is building again on the south side of 95l. Wonder if it will carry it into the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure located along the coast of Georgia is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms across portions of
southeastern Georgia and northern Florida. Upper-level winds are
not expected to be conducive for development while this low moves
northeastward at about 10 mph near the southeastern United States
coast during the next day or so. For additional information on this
system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Hammy]

NAM showing a good-strength low pressure in a few days, but looking at the simulated satellite/radar it may not be as a tropical system (which is very likely the same as what it showed with the previous low.)

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A weak area of low pressure system located along the South Carolina
coast between Myrtle Beach and Charleston continues to produce
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Upper-level winds
are not expected to be conducive for development while this low
accelerates northeastward near the the South and North Carolina
coasts during the day or so. For additional information on this
system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service. In addition, this system could produce locally heavy
rains over the coastal area of South and North Carolina.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

Forecaster Beven

[tolakram]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041455
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1055 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion on
the low pressure area near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.

Satellite imagery and radar data indicate that thunderstorm
activity has increased since yesterday in association with the low
pressure area centered near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. In
addition, surface observations indicate that the circulation has
become better defined, with winds near 35 mph over water to the
east and south of the center. While upper-level winds are at best
marginally conducive, there is some potential for a tropical
cyclone to form later today or tonight as the low moves
northeastward along the coasts of South and North Carolina. After
tonight, the low is expected to move into the open Atlantic Ocean
and merge with a frontal system. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rains and gusty winds will spread along the coastal areas of
South and North Carolina today and tonight. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts and local
forecast office products issued by the National Weather Service.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[tolakram]

Wow.

Live visible
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=33&lon=-78&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray

[tolakram]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 041445
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT TUE 04 AUGUST 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z AUGUST 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-070

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: A RESOURCES PERMITTING LOW LEVEL INVEST OF
A SUSPECT AREA OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33.6N
78.0W WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY AT 04/1715Z. NO FURTHER
TASKING ON THIS SYSTEM IS PLANNED.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0909E GUILLERMO
C. 05/1515Z
D. 21.9N 152.4W
E. 05/1615Z TO 05/1900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 77
A. 06/0600Z
B. AFXXX 1009E GUILLERMO
C. 06/0330Z
D. 22.8N 154.2W
E. 06/0415Z TO 06/0700Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: FIX REQUIREMENT FOR 05/1200Z ON GUILLERMO WAS
CANCELED AT 04/1400Z BY CPHC.

$$
JWP

[TheStormExpert]

[wxman57]

6Z GFS moves it northward and into North Carolina this evening. Euro is similar. Neither has anything left of it by tomorrow.

[seahawkjd]

Not that it really matters considering the time frame, but is there a chance this gets named before it moves onshore or off the coast completely?

[drezee]

The nice MLC associated with the convection is decoupled from the LLC to the West. It is nice for the IR view, but the visible shows a different story. The blob will poof as it continues to move farther from the LLC (the convergence engine). The only possible caveats are

1. it over powers the inflow and sucks the LLC in...unlikely at this point
2. Convection refires once the convection from the MLC quits gets far enough away...more likely than #1

[TheStormExpert]

I put the center of the low over or around Myrtle Beach, SC.

[Hammy]

I'm trying to understand what the point of sending a plane is, it'll be back inland and probably sheared apart by the time it even takes off.

[wxman57]

12z GFS has it inland this evening as well, and dissipating over NC. The GFS does indicate a frontal low moving off the NC coast on Friday that both it and the ECMWF develop. I agree that the value of recon here is minimal, as there are many surface obs there.

[NCSTORMMAN]

I'm trying to understand what the point of sending a plane is, it'll be back inland and probably sheared apart by the time it even takes off.

It is the NHC and therefore you can not challenge their thoughts or opinions. We are but mere mortals lol.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm trying to understand what the point of sending a plane is, it'll be back inland and probably sheared apart by the time it even takes off.

According to the NHC's TWO Graphic, THEY THINK it will stay over water and parallel the NC coast.

[wxman57]

I'm trying to understand what the point of sending a plane is, it'll be back inland and probably sheared apart by the time it even takes off.

According to the NHC's TWO Graphic, THEY THINK it will stay over water and parallel the NC coast.

If it does stay offshore then it may have some potential to spin up into a TS before the cold front arrives. However, none of the models is indicating an offshore track.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm trying to understand what the point of sending a plane is, it'll be back inland and probably sheared apart by the time it even takes off.

According to the NHC's TWO Graphic, THEY THINK it will stay over water and parallel the NC coast.

If it does stay offshore then it may have some potential to spin up into a TS before the cold front arrives. However, none of the models is indicating an offshore track.

Just don't understand why the NHC kept the shaded region over water? Models are most likely correct.

[Hammy]

Is this even separate from the front at this point?