WPAC: SOUDELOR - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

The last couple passes shows that Soudelor is decently shielded from the intruding dry air for now, but it's going to have some trouble intensifying if those outer bands congeal into one giant eyewall.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Eye looks like it's expanding, shown by the moat, another EWRC perhaps. I'll not be surprised to see this explode to possibly a STY by Saturday

[Alyono]

given how wide that outer eyewall is, and this is the 3rd eyewall replacement, I am not sure this even gets above 110 kts again. Before one replacement cycle is complete, another one begins. May be looking at a large, broad typhoon for Taiwan instead of an intense one. may be worse, however, as the larger system could produce more rainfall

[Yellow Evan]

It's banding structure, while better than Chan-hom and Nagaka, doesn't promote too much intensification. Cat 3/4 landfall, however, is still possible IMO.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Earlier recon mission, with August 6th 0Z position and 3Z track from JTWC.

[Ptarmigan]

given how wide that outer eyewall is, and this is the 3rd eyewall replacement, I am not sure this even gets above 110 kts again. Before one replacement cycle is complete, another one begins. May be looking at a large, broad typhoon for Taiwan instead of an intense one. may be worse, however, as the larger system could produce more rainfall

Large storms are very dangerous as they produce larger waves and storm surge.

[Yellow Evan]

WP, 13, 2015080606, , BEST, 0, 207N, 1290E, 95, 952, TY, 64, NEQ, 40, 15, 15, 35, 1001, 225, 12, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, SOUDELOR, ,

I like this estimate for once.

[euro6208]

Cat 4 into Taiwan...

WDPN31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 29//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A 23NM EYE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING AND RADIAL OUTFLOW. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE. A 060546Z SSMI IMAGE REVEALS
CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS WITH A SMALL INNER EYEWALL OF ABOUT 50NM
DIAMETER AND A LARGER, 160NM DIAMETER EYEWALL, SEPARATED BY A WELL-
DEFINED MOAT FEATURE. THIS DOUBLE EYEWALL CONFIGURATION HAS
PERSISTED FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY; THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW. TY SOUDELOR IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. BASED ON THE 060036Z
ASCAT BULLS-EYE IMAGE, WHICH DEPICTS EXPANSIVE 35-KNOT AND 50-KNOT
WIND FIELDS, THE CORRESPONDING WIND RADII HAVE BEEN INCREASED
SLIGHTLY.
B. TY 13W WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STR. IN
THE SHORT TERM, TY 13W IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY AFTER THE SYSTEM
COMPLETES THE CURRENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC); HOWEVER,
THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AN ERC AS THEY CAN
PERSIST FOR 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS REFLECTED IN THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE, WHICH VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE DEGREE OF RE-
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36. THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO
REFLECT A SHARP RE-INTENSIFICATION TO 115 KNOTS BY TAU 36 DUE TO
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, INCREASING SST AND INCREASING OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. AFTER TAU 36, TY 13W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER
TAIWAN THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRANSITS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN THEN RE-EMERGE OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT AS A WEAK TYPHOON. TY
SOUDELOR WILL MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF CHINA
NEAR QUANZHOU.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY SOUDELOR WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE STEERING STR AND TURN POLEWARD. THE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS IT TRACKS INLAND, LEADING TO ITS
DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 060916

A. TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR)

B. 06/0832Z

C. 20.90N

D. 128.68E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/5.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY MG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 4.5. MET AND PT
AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

TXPQ21 KNES 060914
TCSWNP

A. 13W (SOUDELOR)

B. 06/0832Z

C. 20.9N

D. 128.5E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/4.5/W1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS EMBEDDED IN MG AND SURROUNDED BY LG RESULTING
IN A DT OF 4.5 WITH NOTHING ADDED FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT AGREE.
FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

[euro6208]

eye clearing out...bad...

[euro6208]

Incredible...

This data indicates it peaked 5 knots higher, 160 knots, and a pressure below 880 mb...



When will recon return to this great basin?

[euro6208]

That's at least a strong Cat 3 or low end Cat 4 now...

[dexterlabio]

Posters from the other part of the world are asleep and missing this one.

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 AUG 2015 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 21:08:26 N Lon : 128:21:40 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 935.6mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 4.8 4.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 35 km

Center Temp : +11.0C Cloud Region Temp : -56.0C

Scene Type : LARGE EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 181km
- Environmental MSLP : 1000mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.1 degrees

[euro6208]

Posters from the other part of the world are asleep and missing this one.

It's not anywhere near them so little post from them but a storm of this magnitude in their part of the world will go crazy especially if the U.S coastline gets threaten...

[euro6208]

TYPHOON SOUDELOR ANALYSED POSITION : 20.3N 130.3E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 06.08.2015 20.3N 130.3E STRONG

12UTC 06.08.2015 21.1N 127.7E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 07.08.2015 21.7N 124.9E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 07.08.2015 22.6N 122.6E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 08.08.2015 23.6N 120.0E STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 08.08.2015 25.4N 118.5E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.08.2015 27.0N 117.0E MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 09.08.2015 28.6N 116.3E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 10.08.2015 30.9N 115.7E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 10.08.2015 30.7N 116.2E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 11.08.2015 32.8N 119.3E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 11.08.2015 32.2N 121.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 12.08.2015 33.6N 124.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

40 inches of rain would not surprise me in the mountains

This is scary...

[euro6208]

A direct hit of the eyewall on the Taiwanese capital, Taipei is possible. According to NOAA's historical hurricane tracks database, only 10 Category 4 or stronger equivalent typhoons since 1958 have tracked within 65 nautical miles of Taipei. The most recent was Jangmi in late September 2008. Super Typhoon Opal/Opel in early August 1962 was the equivalent of a Category 5 storm as it roared across the island.

In all, Taiwan has seen 18 Category 4 or stronger equivalent typhoon landfalls since 1958

[euro6208]

This is more like 6.0 meaning Cat 4 status but dvorak still showing a 4.5 rating...