EPAC: HILDA- Post-Tropical
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: TEN-E - Tropical Depression
0z GFS has the lemon and 10E. It appers that after day 5-6 the ridge may re-build taking it closer to Hawaii. Not supported by the 12z ECMWF.
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- Yellow Evan
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EP, 10, 201508060600, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1250N, 13010W, , 3, 30, 2, 1009, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, MN, I, 5, 2020 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T, WHITE TOPS ARE WARMING AT 06Z...THUS WENT WITH FT OF
What shear? Very little until day 5. Dry air isn't as bad as I thought. Decent chance this reaches 55 knts or so.
Code: Select all
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TEN EP102015 08/06/15 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 41 47 55 61 64 66 65 64 62
V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 41 47 55 61 64 66 65 64 62
V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 41 47 53 59 63 64 63 62
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 9 9 5 2 4 8 5 6 4 8 8 14 22
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 1 -1 0 2 2 3 0 -2 -3 -3
SHEAR DIR 63 81 85 70 16 23 51 35 352 335 278 278 253
SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.5
POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 151 153 153 152 149 146 142 138 134 131 127
200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 5
700-500 MB RH 67 69 70 68 68 68 67 64 60 60 60 62 63
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 12 12 13 14
850 MB ENV VOR 24 27 30 32 32 24 18 11 15 17 14 1 3
200 MB DIV 26 21 17 23 18 20 27 18 32 27 21 29 36
700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 -1 0 0 0 2 2
LAND (KM) 2331 2400 2471 2437 2339 2144 1953 1757 1529 1337 1179 1074 1014
LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.7 13.2 13.8 14.7 15.5 16.2 17.2 18.5
LONG(DEG W) 130.3 131.3 132.2 133.2 134.1 136.0 137.7 139.4 141.3 142.9 144.2 144.9 145.2
STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 10 9 8 6 6 6
HEAT CONTENT 27 28 29 28 23 24 20 12 14 13 13 16 10
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI
What shear? Very little until day 5. Dry air isn't as bad as I thought. Decent chance this reaches 55 knts or so.
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- Kingarabian
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: TEN-E - Tropical Depression
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015
200 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2015
Dry mid- to upper-level air from the south has wrapped into the
circulation and now surrounds the inner core, having completely cut
off and weakened the convective band in the northern semicircle.
However, a small concentration of deep convection has persisted
near and to the west of the well-defined low-level center as noted
in recent passive microwave satellite imagery. Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates are a consensus T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB,
and a partial ASCAT-B overpass around 0552 UTC indicated 27-kt
surface winds in the convection just west of the center. Therefore,
the initial intensity remains at 30 kt for this advisory.
The motion continues to be 270/10 kt. The depression is forecast
to maintain a general westward motion for the next 48 hours or so,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest by 72 hours as the
cyclone reaches the southwestern periphery of the deep-layer
subtropical ridge located to its north. Most of the 0000 UTC global
models, especially the GFS and ECMWF, have backed off somewhat on
developing a large break in the ridge to the northeast of the
Hawaiian Islands by days 4 and 5. This has resulted in a significant
westward and southward shift of the guidance envelope. The official
forecast track follows suit and has been shifted to the left of the
previous advisory track after 72 hours, but not nearly as far left
as the GFS-ECMWF model consensus. I would prefer to see a couple of
more model runs before making such a large shift in the forecast
track, in case this is a diurnal fluctuation for only one cycle.
The cyclone is expected to remain over warm waters of at least 28C
for the next 72 hours, and in a low-shear environment of 5-10 kt for
the next 96 hours. These favorable factors would normally result in
significant strengthening. Although proximity to the aforementioned
dry air will likely inhibit and disrupt the normal intensification
process, the cyclone is still forecast to achieve hurricane status
by day 4. Westerly vertical wind shear of at least 20 kt is expected
to impinge on the system by day 5, resulting in steady weakening.
The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the intensity consensus
model IVCN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 12.5N 130.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 12.6N 132.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 12.6N 134.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 12.9N 136.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 13.5N 138.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 14.7N 142.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 16.5N 145.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 18.3N 147.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015
200 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2015
Dry mid- to upper-level air from the south has wrapped into the
circulation and now surrounds the inner core, having completely cut
off and weakened the convective band in the northern semicircle.
However, a small concentration of deep convection has persisted
near and to the west of the well-defined low-level center as noted
in recent passive microwave satellite imagery. Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates are a consensus T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB,
and a partial ASCAT-B overpass around 0552 UTC indicated 27-kt
surface winds in the convection just west of the center. Therefore,
the initial intensity remains at 30 kt for this advisory.
The motion continues to be 270/10 kt. The depression is forecast
to maintain a general westward motion for the next 48 hours or so,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest by 72 hours as the
cyclone reaches the southwestern periphery of the deep-layer
subtropical ridge located to its north. Most of the 0000 UTC global
models, especially the GFS and ECMWF, have backed off somewhat on
developing a large break in the ridge to the northeast of the
Hawaiian Islands by days 4 and 5. This has resulted in a significant
westward and southward shift of the guidance envelope. The official
forecast track follows suit and has been shifted to the left of the
previous advisory track after 72 hours, but not nearly as far left
as the GFS-ECMWF model consensus. I would prefer to see a couple of
more model runs before making such a large shift in the forecast
track, in case this is a diurnal fluctuation for only one cycle.
The cyclone is expected to remain over warm waters of at least 28C
for the next 72 hours, and in a low-shear environment of 5-10 kt for
the next 96 hours. These favorable factors would normally result in
significant strengthening. Although proximity to the aforementioned
dry air will likely inhibit and disrupt the normal intensification
process, the cyclone is still forecast to achieve hurricane status
by day 4. Westerly vertical wind shear of at least 20 kt is expected
to impinge on the system by day 5, resulting in steady weakening.
The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the intensity consensus
model IVCN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 12.5N 130.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 12.6N 132.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 12.6N 134.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 12.9N 136.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 13.5N 138.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 14.7N 142.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 16.5N 145.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 18.3N 147.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: HILDA- Tropical Storm
TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015
800 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2015
The cyclone's cloud pattern has significantly increased in
organization since late yesterday. There is now a small central mass
of deep convection, with a band on the northern side of the
circulation. The center, according to an 1132 UTC SSM/I pass, is
also directly underneath this central convection, and the same pass
indicates increasing symmetry to the overall convective structure.
Satellite classifications from 1200 UTC were T2.0/30 kt and T2.5/35
kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively. The initial intensity estimate
is set at the higher end of these estimates (35 kt), based on the
even greater organization seen in satellite imagery since that time.
The initial motion is toward the west or 275/11. The general
forecast scenario is for a subtropical ridge north of the cyclone to
steer Hilda westward for the next couple of days with a slight bend
toward the west-northwest after 36 hours. In about 72 hours, the
cyclone should move around the western end of the ridge and
encounter a break in this feature at the end of the forecast period.
This pattern should cause Hilda to turn northwestward with a
decrease in forward speed by 96 hours. The GFS-based guidance shows
a stronger ridge and a west-southwestward to westward track during
the next 2 to 3 days, while the ECMWF has a weaker ridge and a
track farther north. The official forecast is closer to the ECMWF
solution and near but faster than the previous one through 72 hours.
Overall, the NHC forecast lies to the right of the multi-model
consensus, which is dominated by the GFS guidance. After 72 hours,
the official track is near the multi-model consensus but not as far
west as the GFS/ECMWF model solutions.
Large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic factors are forecast to be
conducive for intensification through for the next 72 hours or so,
except for a somewhat drier lower to middle troposphere along
Hilda's path in 2 to 3 days. When the cyclone gains latitude late
in the forecast period, it should begin to weaken due to increasing
southwesterly shear associated with a mid- to upper-level trough
expected to be near the longitude of Hawaii. The official intensity
forecast is higher than the previous one through 72 hours and is
higher than the multi-model consensus, but little change was made to
the intensity forecast late in the period.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 12.7N 132.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 12.9N 133.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 13.0N 135.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 13.5N 137.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 14.1N 139.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 15.4N 144.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 17.1N 146.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 18.8N 149.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015
800 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2015
The cyclone's cloud pattern has significantly increased in
organization since late yesterday. There is now a small central mass
of deep convection, with a band on the northern side of the
circulation. The center, according to an 1132 UTC SSM/I pass, is
also directly underneath this central convection, and the same pass
indicates increasing symmetry to the overall convective structure.
Satellite classifications from 1200 UTC were T2.0/30 kt and T2.5/35
kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively. The initial intensity estimate
is set at the higher end of these estimates (35 kt), based on the
even greater organization seen in satellite imagery since that time.
The initial motion is toward the west or 275/11. The general
forecast scenario is for a subtropical ridge north of the cyclone to
steer Hilda westward for the next couple of days with a slight bend
toward the west-northwest after 36 hours. In about 72 hours, the
cyclone should move around the western end of the ridge and
encounter a break in this feature at the end of the forecast period.
This pattern should cause Hilda to turn northwestward with a
decrease in forward speed by 96 hours. The GFS-based guidance shows
a stronger ridge and a west-southwestward to westward track during
the next 2 to 3 days, while the ECMWF has a weaker ridge and a
track farther north. The official forecast is closer to the ECMWF
solution and near but faster than the previous one through 72 hours.
Overall, the NHC forecast lies to the right of the multi-model
consensus, which is dominated by the GFS guidance. After 72 hours,
the official track is near the multi-model consensus but not as far
west as the GFS/ECMWF model solutions.
Large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic factors are forecast to be
conducive for intensification through for the next 72 hours or so,
except for a somewhat drier lower to middle troposphere along
Hilda's path in 2 to 3 days. When the cyclone gains latitude late
in the forecast period, it should begin to weaken due to increasing
southwesterly shear associated with a mid- to upper-level trough
expected to be near the longitude of Hawaii. The official intensity
forecast is higher than the previous one through 72 hours and is
higher than the multi-model consensus, but little change was made to
the intensity forecast late in the period.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 12.7N 132.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 12.9N 133.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 13.0N 135.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 13.5N 137.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 14.1N 139.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 15.4N 144.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 17.1N 146.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 18.8N 149.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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- srainhoutx
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Re: EPAC: HILDA- Tropical Storm
Looks like the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance crew will be staying at Hickam Field a bit longer...
Code: Select all
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 06 AUGUST 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z AUGUST 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-072
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES ON TROPICAL
STORM HILDA AT 10/0600Z NEAR 16.6N 146.1W.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re:
Alyono wrote:a little more concerned about this one than I was with Guillermo
Question will be how much dry air holds this in check?
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- Yellow Evan
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----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 AUG 2015 Time : 160000 UTC
Lat : 12:42:49 N Lon : 132:28:59 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1005.8mb/ 39.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 2.8 2.9
Center Temp : -66.0C Cloud Region Temp : -61.1C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Date : 06 AUG 2015 Time : 160000 UTC
Lat : 12:42:49 N Lon : 132:28:59 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1005.8mb/ 39.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 2.8 2.9
Center Temp : -66.0C Cloud Region Temp : -61.1C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
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- MGC
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Re: EPAC: HILDA- Tropical Storm
Hawaii luck is eventually going to run out. Not saying Hilda is going to be the one.
On a side note, Hilda in 1964 was the first hurricane I experienced. We got a near miss in New Orleans. Hilda started me hurricane tracking. Got a big test the next year with Betsy. Betsy taught me what a hurricane can do. Camille and Katrina only reinforced that belief......MGC
On a side note, Hilda in 1964 was the first hurricane I experienced. We got a near miss in New Orleans. Hilda started me hurricane tracking. Got a big test the next year with Betsy. Betsy taught me what a hurricane can do. Camille and Katrina only reinforced that belief......MGC
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- Yellow Evan
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Re:
Alyono wrote:based upon the windsat pass, I'd say winds are around 45 kts now
WindSat isn't reliable AFAIK unless I'm wrong.
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- Yellow Evan
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- Yellow Evan
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89GHz
EP, 10, 201508061800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1260N, 13280W, , 2, 35, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, JV, VIM, 3, 2525 /////, , , GOES15, LLCC, T, DT=2.5 BO CBND MET=2.5 PT=3.0 FTBO DT
EP, 10, 201508061800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1270N, 13250W, , 3, 35, 2, 1005, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, DS, VI, 5, 2525 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T,
Probs still 35 knts, though it looks really nice.
EP, 10, 201508061800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1260N, 13280W, , 2, 35, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, JV, VIM, 3, 2525 /////, , , GOES15, LLCC, T, DT=2.5 BO CBND MET=2.5 PT=3.0 FTBO DT
EP, 10, 201508061800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1270N, 13250W, , 3, 35, 2, 1005, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, DS, VI, 5, 2525 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T,
Probs still 35 knts, though it looks really nice.
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Re: Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:Alyono wrote:based upon the windsat pass, I'd say winds are around 45 kts now
WindSat isn't reliable AFAIK unless I'm wrong.
I've noticed it tends to underdo the winds. I saw a 40 kt vector there
Not entirely agreeing with the 2.5 either. This looks like a solid 3.0 to me
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: Re:
Alyono wrote:This looks like a solid 3.0 to me
That I agree with. Methinks the NHC will go 40 knots actually.
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