WPAC: MOLAVE - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

96W INVEST 150805 0600 17.0N 148.0E WPAC 15 NA

Very large circulation that models develop into Molave.

[euro6208]

NWS just issused a flash advisory for the Marianas...

000
WGMY80 PGUM 050739
FLSMY

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
533 PM CHST WED AUG 5 2015

GUC110-120-051030-
/O.NEW.PGUM.FA.Y.0006.150805T0739Z-150805T1030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TINIAN GU-SAIPAN GU-
533 PM CHST WED AUG 5 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN GUAM HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
FOR...
THE ISLANDS OF TINIAN...SAIPAN...

* UNTIL 830 PM CHST

* AT 533 PM CHST...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING. OVERFLOWING POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL RESULT IN
MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN.

* FLOODING WILL CAUSE PONDING ON ROADS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS OF
TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST
ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES
OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART
CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1516 14580 1516 14574 1511 14576 1503 14566
1495 14567 1492 14563 1494 14561 1484 14554
1496 14562 1501 14558 1506 14560 1510 14570
1521 14572 1529 14581

$$

STANKO

[euro6208]

06Z GFS still makes this a typhoon east of Japan while EURO almost makes it a typhoon and both recurves it out to sea after dumping alot of rain over the Marianas...

[euro6208]

000
WWMY80 PGUM 060027
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1027 AM CHST THU AUG 6 2015

GUZ004-070200-
SAIPAN-
1027 AM CHST THU AUG 6 2015

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE NORTHERN CNMI...

AT 930 AM THIS MORNING A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR 18
DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 149 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE. THIS IS ABOUT
185 MILES EAST OF ALAMAGAN AND 205 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN.
IT WAS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.

COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...POSSIBLY
AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY FRIDAY EVENING.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL TO
ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND AGRIHAN AS IT DRIFTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
HOWEVER...SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS STILL DEVELOPING...IT IS NOT YET
POSSIBLE TO GIVE DETAILED INFORMATION ON ITS FUTURE TRACK AND
CHANGES IN FORECAST TRACK ARE POSSIBLE. STAY INFORMED ON ITS
PROGRESS BY FOLLOWING THE LATEST STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON GUAM. THESE ARE POSTED ON THE WFO
GUAM WEB PAGE AT http://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

$$

KLEESCHULTE

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 060530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.7N 148.8E TO 24.0N 147.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
060500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N
149.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.2N
148.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 149.0E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 060404Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW. CURRENTLY, A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH IS
IMPINGING ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT;
HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE TUTT CELL MOVES WEST. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO ITS IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
070530Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN11 PGTW 060923

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (E OF SAIPAN)

B. 06/0832Z

C. 18.90N

D. 149.40E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

TXPQ24 KNES 060918
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)

B. 06/0832Z

C. 18.9N

D. 149.0E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS GREATER THAN .2 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING
A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

[euro6208]

Big burst near the center...

[euro6208]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96W ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 148.1E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 06.08.2015 18.1N 148.1E WEAK

12UTC 06.08.2015 18.7N 148.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 07.08.2015 20.8N 147.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.08.2015 22.2N 145.9E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.08.2015 24.7N 144.6E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 08.08.2015 26.7N 142.3E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.08.2015 27.3N 140.9E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 09.08.2015 28.6N 140.9E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 10.08.2015 30.0N 141.3E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 10.08.2015 31.6N 142.5E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 11.08.2015 32.5N 144.9E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 11.08.2015 33.7N 148.6E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 12.08.2015 35.3N 153.3E STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

[1900hurricane]

Morning visible imagery does show a closed circulation with 96W, although it is exposed due to southwesterly shear from the upper low to its northwest. If that upper low continues to move westwards away from 96W, it'll have a good shot at developing into a named system. A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert has been issued by JTWC for the system.

[euro6208]

Forecast to become our Eleventh typhoon of the season...

WDPN32 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS A POORLY
DEFINED, COMPLETELY EXPOSED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN
FLANK. SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST IS CLEARLY
AFFECTING DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. AS SUCH, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED AT 25 KNOTS. THE LOCATION IS SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AS
THE LLCC IS CLEARLY VISIBLE IN THE MSI. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT CELL CREATING SUBSIDENCE AND 20-30
KNOTS OF VWS, PREVENTING CONSOLIDATION. TD 15W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 15W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 48. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AS THE TUTT CELL REMAINS,
ALLOWING ONLY MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, BEYOND TAU 48, VWS
WILL DECREASE AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL INCREASE, SUPPORTING
INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM WILL REACH THE STR AXIS AND BEGIN TO
TURN POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 15W WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TO THE
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. INITIALLY,
THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
ALLOWING TD 15W TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS AT TAU 96.
AFTERWARDS, THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE INCREASED VWS AS THE SYSTEM
INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW, DISSIPATING THE
SYSTEM. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST DUE TO LIMITED
MODEL GUIDANCE AND A WIDE SPREAD WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE RE-
CURVE OF THE SYSTEM.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TXPQ24 KNES 070929
TCSWNP

A. 15W (NONAME)

B. 07/0832Z

C. 23.5N

D. 147.0E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS .4 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5.
MET AND PT = 2.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

[cycloneye]

TS 1514 (MOLAVE)
Issued at 19:05 UTC, 7 August 2015
<Analyses at 07/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N25°05'(25.1°)
E146°20'(146.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE390km(210NM)
SW170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 08/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°10'(26.2°)
E143°55'(143.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 08/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°30'(27.5°)
E142°00'(142.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

<Forecast for 09/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N29°10'(29.2°)
E140°25'(140.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 10/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N31°30'(31.5°)
E141°50'(141.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (MOLAVE)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257
NM EAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A
BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED IN THE EIR ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 071515Z NPP MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD, AND
REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED 12-HOUR CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF THE SYSTEM.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A TUTT CELL TO THE WEST IS CAUSING
STRONG VWS AND SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE CYCLONE
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 15W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 36. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AS THE TUTT CELL REMAINS, ALLOWING ONLY
MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, BEYOND TAU 36, VWS WILL DECREASE
AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL INCREASE, SUPPORTING INTENSIFICATION TO A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 72. CONCURRENTLY THE SYSTEM WILL
ROUND THE STR AXIS AND BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 15W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY DUE
TO INCREASED VWS AND INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TD 15W
SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST DUE TO
POSITIONAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM AND HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THE RE-CURVE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
AND ALL MEMBERS INDICATE A RE-CURVE BEFORE JAPAN.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN11 PGTW 071825

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (MOLAVE)

B. 07/1732Z

C. 25.18N

D. 145.73E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .35 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 2.0 DT. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
07/1515Z 24.50N 146.53E ATMS


BERMEA

Interesting that SSD is classifying this as Subtropical...

TXPQ24 KNES 072126
TCSWNP

A. 15W (MOLAVE)

B. 07/2101Z

C. 25.6N

D. 144.5E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. SUBTROPICAL

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THE MAIN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM LIES POLEWARD
AND EASTWARD OF AN ILL-DEFINED CENTER AND THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD SYSTEM
IS MORE EXTENSIVE THAN THE CENTRAL FEATURE THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED. THESE
CHARACTERISTICS AS WELL AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST THAT THE
SYSTEM IS NO LONGER PURELY TROPICAL. THEREFORE, THIS WILL BE THE FINAL
BULLETIN UNLESS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[1900hurricane]

Very tangled with the upper low now. Did prefer the initial intensity forecast of the JMA over the JTWC this go round. It's not going to get very strong unless it can either gain some separation from the upper low or dissipate it from latent heat release.

[euro6208]

Deepest convection away from the LLC due to shear...

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 AUG 2015 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 25:47:54 N Lon : 145:14:53 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.2 / 999.9mb/ 32.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.2 2.2 2.2

Center Temp : +4.7C Cloud Region Temp : -2.3C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.79^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 30.1 degrees

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Models still recurving out to sea...

[euro6208]

14th tropical storm of the season!

15W MOLAVE 150808 0600 26.2N 143.4E WPAC 35 996