WPAC: SOUDELOR - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TY 1513 (SOUDELOR)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 7 August 2015

<Analyses at 07/06 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N22°30'(22.5°)
E124°40'(124.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more N240km(130NM)
S190km(100NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N560km(300NM)
S500km(270NM)

<Estimate for 07/07 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N22°35'(22.6°)
E124°30'(124.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more N240km(130NM)
S190km(100NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N560km(300NM)
S500km(270NM)

<Forecast for 07/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°35'(23.6°)
E122°10'(122.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area N330km(180NM)
S280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 08/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N24°25'(24.4°)
E120°00'(120.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area N310km(170NM)
S260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 09/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°10'(27.2°)
E116°35'(116.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 10/06 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N30°50'(30.8°)
E116°25'(116.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Soudelor now contributed 29.005 units of ACE and still increase since it will still linger and intensify before making landfall over Central Taiwan.


It's currently intensifying

13W SOUDELOR 150807 0600 22.4N 124.8E WPAC 110 941

[euro6208]

Latest radar showing the eye slowly moving towards Taiwan...

[euro6208]

Landfall south of Hualien and over the town of Shoufeng, part of Hualien county. Population +300,000...

WDPN31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 33//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 243 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP
CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 18 NM EYE WITH SYMMETRICAL BANDING WRAPPING
TIGHTLY. WHILE THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER, UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE RIGHT OVER THE SYSTEM HELPING TO
OFFSET ANY DEGRADATION IN INTENSITY. A 070618Z AMSU-B PARTIAL IMAGE
SHOWS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 110 KNOTS BASED ON
AN ASSESSMENT OF INCREASING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
AGENCIES. TY SOUDELOR IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 13W WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, TY 13W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 115 KNOTS DUE TO
GOOD OUTFLOW, INCREASING SST AND INCREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. JUST
AFTER TAU 12, TY 13W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN CENTRAL TAIWAN
AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE CHUNGYANG RANGE
BEFORE RE-EMERGING IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT BY TAU 24. THEREAFTER, TY
SOUDELOR WILL MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS PROVINCE
OF FUJIAN AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, FINALLY DISSIPATING NEAR LAKE
DAGUAN BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

I doubt Soudelor is doing any more strengthening. Not with this structure. The current intensity of 110 kt from JTWC might even be a little generous.

[dexterlabio]

110-115 knots estimate may be justifiable 12 hours ago. Right now dry air is (and has always been) messing this one up. Good thing for Taiwan as there will be reduced risk of wind damage. However once the core gets closer convection blowup due to orographic lifting will be the real deal.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Soudelor now contributes the 30 mark for a TC (30.108) ACE and making the WPAC close to 240

[xtyphooncyclonex]

110-115 knots estimate may be justifiable 12 hours ago. Right now dry air is (and has always been) messing this one up. Good thing for Taiwan as there will be reduced risk of wind damage. However once the core gets closer convection blowup due to orographic lifting will be the real deal.

Actually the JTWC lowered their estimate to 105 kts to 12z

[RL3AO]

Its pretty common for typhoons to take a jog north (south) when they are approaching the northern (southern) part of Taiwan. Interested to see if Soudelor does the same.

[euro6208]

About to make landfall...

[cycloneye]

Made landfall.

[1900hurricane]

Yeah, should be making landfall right about now.

*EDIT: removed duplicate image from post above.

[CrazyC83]

Looking at the size, structure and presentation, I would go with 95 kt for the landfall intensity.

[euro6208]

The city of Hualien must be taking a brunt right now...

WDPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 35//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 108 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND A
WELL-DEFINED EYE, ALBEIT CLOUD-FILLED AND SMALLER AT 5-NM DIAMETER.
THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND A
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM THE TAIWAN CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW EVIDENT IN
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. TY SOUDELOR IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY SOUDELOR WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH
TAU 24 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 24, TY 13W
WILL TURN POLEWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR. THE CYCLONE WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER EASTERN TAIWAN IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN EXIT INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT, STILL AT
TYPHOON STRENGTH, ALTHOUGH MUCH WEAKER. HOWEVER, AFTER IT MAKES A
FINAL LANDFALL IN CHINA JUST BEFORE TAU 24, IT WILL ERODE RAPIDLY AND
DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Made landfall.

That's a small eyewall and eye. JTWC has it at only 5 nm that's twice this storm made landfall with a pinhole.

Saipan got it at only 3.5 to 4 nm wide.

I won't be surprised if this made landfall stronger than indicated like what we saw in Saipan...

[euro6208]

James Reynolds just twitted this:

Impressive rain totals...Tai ping just exceeded 1 metre of rain



Currently measured a 950 mb at Taroko



It made landfall over a mountainous region and areas south of the landfall position is being sheltered by 3000 foot mountains so wind isn't a problem but rain is...

[CrazyC83]

James Reynolds just twitted this:

Impressive rain totals...Tai ping just exceeded 1 metre of rain



Currently measured a 950 mb at Taroko



It made landfall over a mountainous region and areas south of the landfall position is being sheltered by 3000 foot mountains so wind isn't a problem but rain is...

That looks to be very close to the landfall point, so I would set the landfall pressure at 946 mb.

[Yellow Evan]

105/946 seems good here for landfall intensity.

Josh measured a 955 mbar pressure.

[euro6208]

Those mountains must be getting alot of rain...