WPAC: SOUDELOR - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Metro +7 million capital city of Taipei located further north of where Soudelor made landfall is reporting 977 mb and gusting to 48 mph...

[CrazyC83]

105/946 seems good here for landfall intensity.

Josh measured a 955 mbar pressure.

I'd put the intensity a bit lower, based on its very large size and large RMW (concentric structure). I would go with 95 kt - high end Cat 2 - for intensity at landfall.

[euro6208]

Last major hurricane to hit the U.S coastline was back in 2005...

Here it's very common...

Su-ao, Yilan County north of where it made landfall reported a gust of 143 mph...

[euro6208]

Already reaching 40 mph in Fuzhou China and latest image from Taipei...

[euro6208]

Typhoons are so common over here that people just forget how bad it could get.

People walking around and power still on because it's located underground...

It's business as usual...

[euro6208]

Let's hope Soudelor isn't as bad as Morakot back in 2009, the last major impact typhoon to hit taiwan, when it unleased severe rainfall and left 461 people dead across Taiwan. Morakot's rainfall peaked at 109.3 inches.

[CrazyC83]

Seriously, what is up with those people? I don't care how used to it you are, winds of 50, 60 mph sustained with hurricane force gusts are dangerous!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Seriously, what is up with those people? I don't care how used to it you are, winds of 50, 60 mph sustained with hurricane force gusts are dangerous!

Impressive

Winds are maxing up to 100 mph, not 50-60 mph since this is still a typhoon

Soudelor seems to be a large system with cat 4 gusts even up to Northern Taiwan and Ryukyu!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Soudelor now with 32.1125 units of ACE bringing the WPAC close to 240!!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Damage in Taiwan (from: WPWx FB Page)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

LATE POST

Josh Morgerman
4:45 am. Whoa! Full-on hurricane raking Hualien City! Violent. Flying debris. Surprise! #TyphoonSOUDELOR

[euro6208]

Center now offshore in the Taiwan strait while the country continues to get blasted...

[euro6208]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5NY_kbzf14w[/youtube]

Typhoon Hunter James Reynolds in Hualien.

Impressive...

[euro6208]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zpdYR1a7kTE[/youtube]

Terrible mudslide in Fuxing District, Taoyuan County...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 37//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 101 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAKENING
STRUCTURE AS TY SOUDELOR RE-MERGES INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP, SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW
AND RJTD AS WELL AS COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM THE TAIWAN CENTRAL
WEATHER BUREAU WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75
KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TY 13W IS LOCATED AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOT) VWS AND GOOD OUTFLOW. SOUDELOR IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY SOUDELOR WILL REMAIN ON A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 06
TO 12 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTERWARD, TY
13W WILL TURN MORE POLEWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STR. SOUDELOR WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS IT MAKES A
FINAL LANDFALL IN CHINA AT TAU 12. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER
INLAND, IT WILL ERODE RAPIDLY AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[CrazyC83]

Looks to be about to make final landfall.

[CrazyC83]

Based on the structure at China landfall, I would set the intensity there at 65 kt.

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 039
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 13W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 25.5N 118.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5N 118.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 27.0N 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 28.6N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 118.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 148 NM WEST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND INTERPOLATION FROM NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN COASTAL CHINA,
INCLUDING XIAMEN AND FUZHOU, INDICATE TS SOUDELOR HAS MADE LANDFALL
JUST SOUTH OF FUZHOU. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT
DRAGS ACROSS RUGGED TERRAIN, DISSIPATING BY TAU 24. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION OR RETURN INTO WATER. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
15W (MOLAVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HurricaneBill]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-h0httBqFpI[/youtube]

[euro6208]

Unfortunately 21 people dead and 9 missing