2015 Global model runs discussion

[blp]

Oh,

and the GFS has completely dropped this storm. It breaks apart the vorticity almost as soon as it leaves Africa. Looks like the same thing as last year.

Yep, you almost knew in the back of your mind that this was going to bust. I think you make a good point in the prior post. The conditions over the past several years in the Atlantic have been something that these models have not had to deal with prior. If you consider these Global models are not that old and have been around mostly during the Active era which began in 1995. Our experience with them has been during the Active era and we got used to them performing a certain way with better than normal conditions. Early signs point to 2016 possibly going back to a typical Active era season which should help the GFS and other models.

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro shows a TW coming off Africa just north of the Cape Verde Islands and developing at starting at hour 216.

[Dean4Storms]

One thing is for certain. The upper Gulf Coast and East Coast of the USA are fairly safe from any major hurricane under the current trough pattern over the eastern US. Until that changes it will be hard for any major hurricane to make a threat there! This shear has been non-stop for weeks!

[NDG]

Historically (well, for a short time) the GFS has been more accurate with genesis. This was not the result of the GFS simple creating more storms and scoring a few hits, it predicted genesis correctly and had fewer false positives than other models. Last year we know what happened but some years are just really bad for a model, in my opinion, and it seemed like conditions last year exploited the GFS weaknesses.

If the GFS scores this time we might think of it as getting back to normal. I have to think with the horrible conditions, similar to last year, we're going to see a repeat bad performance but who knows.

This was the graph from the 2013 article. If it extended out from 2011 I suspect the GFS and Euro would be neck and neck.

http://imageshack.com/a/img540/6985/AiZ6lE.png

It also seems to be basin specific. Here's a more recent article discussing model performance.

http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc14/presentations/Session4/s04-09-IHC68-tcgen2.mike.fiorino.20140305.pdf

Which contains the heading ..
…maybe those d!*#%ng models are pretty good after all…

I remember 2008, the Euro burned the GFS, I remember myself putting out a forecast track of Gustav when it was exiting Hispaniola. I went 100% by the Euro when the GFS was pointing towards FL. It did not let me down, my forecast track towards LA proved to be correct I believe it was like a 4-5 day range forecast.
Wow, I had forgotten that the CMC was pretty good compared to the GFS between 2004-2006.

[Hammy]

Euro is playing the GFS's create your own storm game with a system about a week out. It seems too unlikely given the latitude it exits at and the SSTs there, so both model upgrades have likely worsened the existing issues.

[TheStormExpert]

Well both the 00z GFS & Euro are spot on in consistency in terms of track, strength, and time. Still it's FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY!

00z GFS Hr.216



00z GFS Hr.240



00z Euro Hr.216



00z Euro Hr.240

[Hammy]

Both models dropped it for the afternoon run...

[Yellow Evan]

Euro is playing the GFS's create your own storm game with a system about a week out. It seems too unlikely given the latitude it exits at and the SSTs there, so both model upgrades have likely worsened the existing issues.

ECMWF's upgrade has made it more bullish yes. But the gFS's genesis issue has been improved and in the EPAC, it's been underdoing gensis from time to time.

[Ntxw]

They do show a decent Nor'easter this weekend off the east coast with a big front. Not tropical though I don't think.

[Hammy]

It's safe to say nothing is going to form in the short term, so the Euro had something like 4-5 consecutive phantom storms, putting it on par with the GFS now.

[tropicwatch]

Might end up with some troughiness in the gulf again like we did the week before last.

[TheStormExpert]

Might end up with some troughiness in the gulf again like we did the week before last.

More troughiness means ultimately more wind shear.

[Hurricaneman]

It's safe to say nothing is going to form in the short term, so the Euro had something like 4-5 consecutive phantom storms, putting it on par with the GFS now.

The Euro has taken a few steps back but is still showing less phantoms than the GFS

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Gfs is still pretty bad but the euro is starting to close the gap a little this year. But the way the gfs is going by the end of the month it could very well extend its lead again.

[lrak]

I know it's the CMC but it shows a storm way out in wonderland about Aug. 17th for the Houston area.

[BigB0882]

I know it's the CMC but it shows a storm way out in wonderland about Aug. 17th for the Houston area.

That is only 6 days. I wouldn't call that way out in wonderland although it is definitely the CMC..so...

[gatorcane]

Although the global models are mostly quiet, when I look at Africa, I do see some impressive waves over the continent and as we head deeper into August, I am wondering if one off these waves will finally get going in the MDR. I circled the three waves that I am seeing:

[OuterBanker]

The real season starts Saturday. Yet neither the GFS or European show anything . Not even a phantom. Some are resorting to quoting the CMC. Talk about grasping at straws.

[MGC]

The real season starts Saturday. Yet neither the GFS or European show anything . Not even a phantom. Some are resorting to quoting the CMC. Talk about grasping at straws.

Even the models can't spin up a phantom with all the dry air and dust in the MDR......MGC

[Hammy]

What's causing there to be so much dry air over the Atlantic in the first place given how moist Africa is?