Texas Summer-2015

[Tireman4]

Looks like the past few days was the highlight of summer and is now behind us. Can't rule out a few more 100's but could it be that is on it's last legs? Euro la la land hints at maybe sub 90 highs and rain.[/quote]

I hope so. I really do. I am suffering. My car A/C, such as it is, is on full blast. The heat is just saying..yeah right..[/quote]


Not laughing at your car A/C misery, just the personification of this miserable heat. I can relate all too well![/quote]


Yeah, I know. Wxman 57 is in all his glory. Ughh. I deal with it. Maybe I will send the heat from me to him, 5 miles down the road...LOL

[vbhoutex]

At least one more day of butal heat. Then RELIEF???
Here is what Jeff Lindner has to say:

Heat advisory remains in effect until this evening.

Another day or brutal heat across the region ahead of a weak boundary progged to enter SE TX late this afternoon. WSW winds ahead of this feature combined with compressional heating supports highs in the low to mid 100’s this afternoon. Record highs may be tied or broken at IAH today. Moisture levels will also be on the increased ahead of the weak frontal boundary which will help to push afternoon heat index values into the 105-112 degree range. Looks like we will meet heat advisory criteria both on the heat index and actual air temperature this afternoon.

Thunderstorms:

With the upper ridge starting to recede to the NW SE TX has come under the eastern influence of the ridge axis allowing NNE upper level flow, weakening subsidence, and deepening moisture. A surface boundary is dropping southward through northern LA and SE OK this morning with a complex of thunderstorms ongoing over NE LA. Expect outflow boundaries to build SSW this afternoon and enter into our super heated air mass late this afternoon and early this evening. At the same time the seabreeze and baybreeze will move inland and will likely collide with the SSW/SW moving activity out of W LA early this evening. Forecast soundings show a strong inverted “V” profile or dry sub cloud layer over SE TX this afternoon and this supports strong winds from microbursts and downbursts as the drier low level help to evaporate some of the rain in the rain shafts as it falls from the cloud base. Gusty to severe level winds (60mph) may be possible with some of the storms this afternoon.

Boundary is over the area on Wednesday and expect another round of afternoon thunderstorms to develop and move southward over the region once temperatures reach the upper 90’s to low 100’s. Damaging winds will be possible again on Wednesday with soundings still showing an inverted “V” profile.

Fire Weather:

Near critical fire weather conditions over the eastern half of SE TX this afternoon with isolated thunderstorms producing lightning and strong gusty winds. Any fires that might be started by lightning in/near thunderstorms will pose a potentially fast and erratic burn rate due to quickly shifting winds and wind speeds near the convective activity. Fine fuels remain in poor health and readily available to burn. Widespread wetting rains do not appear likely today or Wednesday, so the fire danger will remain elevated.

Extended Outlook:

Model agreement continues to increase with a more pronounced pattern changes this weekend into early next week which should break the heat wave and allow better rain chances. Upper trough along the US east coast late this week begins to retrograde westward into the central Gulf region and then possibly as far west as the NW Gulf late this weekend and early next week. The upper air heat ridge is pushed far to the west of TX allowing lowered heights aloft . Deep tropical moisture also moves toward the TX coast. All this is pointing toward more normal afternoon temperatures in the mid 90’s and at least a daily chance of rainfall.

[Brent]

Look at that high off of Cali coast.... Precursor to this winter some?

That huge ridge you see in the GOA is a result of Molave (WPAC system) recurving and pumping it up.

Looks like the past few days was the highlight of summer and is now behind us. Can't rule out a few more 100's but could it be that is on it's last legs? Euro la la land hints at maybe sub 90 highs and rain.

[CaptinCrunch]

I'm surprised 32 days rain free is the longest streak since 2000 at DFW... I mean this is my first summer here but I always figured this wasn't unusual for summer, especially with 2011 more recent.

34 consecutive days with NO precip puts us at 6th on the record list

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=dnorain

[TarrantWx]

There were a few raindrops that fell this morning on the north side of Fort Worth. I'm sure it was nothing more than a trace, but it was enough to have to use my windshield wipers one time. It was the highlight of my day.

[wxman57]

Here are a couple of graphics, one from the 12Z European model indicating that the big high pressure that's been centered over Texas (and responsible for the hot/dry conditions) is heading west later this week. It should be in southern CA by next Monday as an upper-level trof takes residence over the TX coast. That should increase clouds, decrease temps, and provide a daily chance of thunderstorms.



Here is a meteogram from the 12Z GFS, which indicates the big cool-down after this weekend. Only low to mid 90s next week with daily showers. I'll need to get my jacket ready!

[Tireman4]

And now..BREAKING NEWS...ughh....Geez Wxman 57 why...why did we let you have the thermostat...ughh..

The old record for August 11th was 102° set back in the brutal summer of 2011. We’ve hit at least 103° so far. The official observation won’t come in until later today, but it will be a new record for the date.


This is also our 6th 100° or hotter high temperature in a row. This is tied for the 12th longest such streak of 100+ since Houston’s official temperature records began in 1888. This still doesn’t compare to our two 2011 streaks of 24 straight days and 8 straight days almost back to back. But it’s far and away the hottest since then.

A few showers and thunderstorms are developing to our east and will potentially impact the eastern part of the Houston area late this afternoon or evening, giving some lucky people a brief respite from the heat.

Update: And it’s already hotter now, with the National Weather Service showing 104 at IAH.

Houston Heat

My edit...the front giveth and taketh. Ughh..this spike is the result of the front/dry air coming..ughh..I even hear the windows popping in my third floor office. Lovely.

[Ralph's Weather]

Here in downtown Tyler we just got our first rain in a very long time in the form of a very gusty Severe warned storm. Radar estimates are over an inch SW of Tyler. Looks like a line is forming south of I-20 from Dallas east.

Here is a personal weather station in downtown Tyler:
2:48 PM 105.4 °F 65.6 °F 28 % NNE 8.9 mph -- mph 29.93 in -- in 0 in
3:03 PM 139.5 °F 99.9 °F 90 % South 10.4 mph -- mph 29.94 in -- in 0.32 in
3:18 PM 73.9 °F 73.6 °F 99 % SW 8.9 mph -- mph 29.94 in -- in 0.4 in
You may want to disregard the 566 heat index though.

[wxman57]

You want cold? Head over to Baton Rouge immediately. I just noticed that they're observing a current temperature of 32F:

[Ntxw]

My edit...the front giveth and taketh. Ughh..this spike is the result of the front/dry air coming..ughh..I even hear the windows popping in my third floor office. Lovely.

That is horrible Tireman4! There are thunderstorms to the north and east of Houston, hopefully they hold together and give you some relief

[Tireman4]

You want cold? Head over to Baton Rouge immediately. I just noticed that they're observing a current temperature of 32F:

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/btr.JPG

You are playing havoc with all this. I am moving to Alaska...ughhh

[Tireman4]

My edit...the front giveth and taketh. Ughh..this spike is the result of the front/dry air coming..ughh..I even hear the windows popping in my third floor office. Lovely.

That is horrible Tireman4! There are thunderstorms to the north and east of Houston, hopefully they hold together and give you some relief

We will see. The fun part about being the library director, they put me right where the sun is. The windows get all the sun from 12 noon to 9 pm. Yea me....ughh...

[Brent]

Could it be?

[horselattitudesfarm]

Could it be?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_40.png

240 hours out always looks good doesn't it?

[horselattitudesfarm]

Interesting what the 120 hr ECMWF Upper Dynamic model shows. Anomolous low in Western Gulf. I'd post a picture but don't know how to anymore since Imageshack changed

[Tejas89]

FWD has no rain chances in the 7 day which would move us to 3rd all time for longest streak.

This after almost the rainiest month ever recorded in May.

[Ntxw]

Interesting what the 120 hr ECMWF Upper Dynamic model shows. Anomolous low in Western Gulf. I'd post a picture but don't know how to anymore since Imageshack changed

Try tinypic, usually works pretty well

[weatherdude1108]

Could it be?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_40.png

240 hours out always looks good doesn't it?

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE!!! That is a site for sore eyes map!

[Ntxw]

Euro actually looks like that but a little further west. Starts in West Texas and south Texas while the gulf low in SE Texas puts rain there. NE Texas is the dry spot.

[Tireman4]

Could it be?

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gf ... _p60_l.gif

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_40.png

The Elders call that rain, I think.