Texas Summer-2015

[aggiecutter]

Interesting what the 120 hr ECMWF Upper Dynamic model shows. Anomolous low in Western Gulf. I'd post a picture but don't know how to anymore since Imageshack changed

[wxman57]

Wishful thinking.

With the pattern change coming it'll be cooler, but not THAT cool!

[Montgomery]

^^^ I'll take the 10 degrees cooler than it was yesterday at IAH.

[Tireman4]

Where is Fall? Ughhh

[wxman57]

Where is Fall? Ughhh

You're looking for fall in the wrong month. Try the 3rd week of September (and quit sitting in the sunshine at your desk).

[dhweather]

Hello ladies & gents! Work has been keeping me busy.

The book for 2015, thus far:

Chapter one: Nada
Chapter two: Wintry mixes & snow
Chapter three: Top 10 amounts of rainfall, flooding
Chapter four: Top 10 stretch of no precip at DFW

Assuming the ridge of death indeed moves on and leaves us alone, what is the next chapter ?


I'm pretty sure it will not be CAT 5 IN THE GULF!

[dhweather]

Oh, we are at 43 days with ZERO precip in Heath. Sadly, I can see that reaching 50.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

^^^ I'll take the 10 degrees cooler than it was yesterday at IAH.

I know, right? Dallas TV Met Dan Henry was going on and on about how this "cool front" was "only" going to knock temps into the upper 90's. That's still a lot better than 106...especially when you've got a high school football player in two-a-days.

[Tireman4]

Where is Fall? Ughhh

You're looking for fall in the wrong month. Try the 3rd week of September (and quit sitting in the sunshine at your desk).

Ha ha ha...and the windows still keep popping. Ughh...Why me? Ughh....not looking forward to my run (yes, it is inside..LOL)

[Tireman4]

As advertised, disgusting run. On a positive note., fastest 7 miler in 7 months..7:38 pace.

[Ntxw]

Hello ladies & gents! Work has been keeping me busy.

The book for 2015, thus far:

Chapter one: Nada
Chapter two: Wintry mixes & snow
Chapter three: Top 10 amounts of rainfall, flooding
Chapter four: Top 10 stretch of no precip at DFW

Assuming the ridge of death indeed moves on and leaves us alone, what is the next chapter ?


I'm pretty sure it will not be CAT 5 IN THE GULF!

With the ENSO (El Nino) in the 3-4 (record) sigma event range, it is extreme. Thus across the globe extreme weather events have increased compared to 2012, 2013 and 2014. Examples are the Pacific spewing out record pace tropical cyclones, while Atlantic is dead with shear as high thus far as we have ever seen it in modern times, Parts of Chile are flooding where rain never falls, exceptional drought in Indonesia and parts of the Caribbean where it rains all the time. Locally it would not be surprising to see more extreme weather events in contrast to one another the next few months through 2016. If La Nina commences next year the abrubt changes will only be more profound.

[weatherdude1108]

Our local weather mets. have an encouraging forecast, except for the last part.
But it is a change, so that makes me happy!


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
253 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS AREAS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF
A LINE FROM FREDERICKSBURG TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO HALLETSSVILLE. LIKE
WE SAW LAST NIGHT...SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AFTER WHICH WE SHOULD SEE THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS COME TO AN END. HAVE ENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND STORM
OUTFLOWS SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPS AND HEAT INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW
CRITERIA. CANT RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS HITTING CRITERIA FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BUT THEY SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED.

SHOULD SEE A REPEAT TOMORROW WITH A BIT LESS COVERAGE OF
POP...WITH THE AREA BEING PUSHED FARTHER TO THE WEST AS DRY AIR
ALOFT TRIES TO COME IN FROM THE NE. MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME CONVECTION COMING DOWN FROM THE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SEEMS
LIKE A PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION BASED OFF WATER VAPOR AND THE POSITION
OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SOME CHANGES START TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHEN THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL AND WEST GULF...AND THEN INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THIS SHOULD
INCREASE THE POP CHANCES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST ZONES AND
BRING IN LOWER HEIGHTS...MORE CLOUDS...AND SUBSEQUENT LOWER TEMPS.
HOPEFUL THAT TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW 100 IN MOST AREAS BY THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK WHEN POP IS THE HIGHEST. STAYED BELOW THE
LARGEST POP ADVERTISED BY THE GFS FOR NOW...BUT IF THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS...AND DOES BRING A GOOD FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE WITH
IT...COULD SEE THE NEED TO INCREASE POPS...STAY TUNED. TOWARD THE
MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW GOES AWAY AND
WE RETURN TO A DRIER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN.

[Brent]

[TeamPlayersBlue]

.81" of rain here at TPB weather center. Cell came through this morning and later this afternoon. Very localized rain so i'll take it!

[TheProfessor]

I was just going through some of Ohio's most severe weather events and I came across the Blizzard of 1918, I thought we had some pretty insane temp drops in Texas, and the temperature dropped from a chilly 30 degrees to a frigid -15 degrees.

[aggiecutter]

Another early fall afternoon in Texarkana:

Current conditions at
Texarkana, Texarkana Regional-Webb Field (KTXK)
Lat: 33.46°NLon: 93.99°WElev: 387ft.

Fair
91°F
33°C
Humidity 35%
Wind Speed N 10 G 20 mph
Barometer 30.07 in (1017.7 mb)
Dewpoint 60°F (16°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 90°F (32°C)
Last update 14 Aug 2:53 pm CD

[weatherdude1108]

Please please please!!! This pattern can't break soon enough IMO. We need water replenishment.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
313 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

MAIN HIGHLIGHT DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE
HEAT AS TEMPERATURES AND RESPECTIVE HEAT INDICES FALL TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR TODAY AND LIKELY AGAIN TOMORROW OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. SOME
STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED 40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 100-106F
RANGE AS OF 3PM WITH MOST AREAS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS REACHING 100F. THESE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
YIELDING ~1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAK
IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE MID LEVEL RIDGE...IS AIDING SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND
EDWARDS PLATEAU. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS WELL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY POST SUNSET. THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLATEAU HOWEVER WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING
AS IT PUSHES ACROSS VAL VERDE AND THE BIG BEND REGION.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
RESTABLIZES WITH BUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS COULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ANOTHER REPEAT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

THE LONG AWAITED SLIGHT BREAK FROM THE HEAT WILL TAKE PLACE LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH TO MID
TO UPPER 90S VS. THE UPPER 90S AND 100F THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING.
SLIGHTLY GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY 30-40% FOR A WIDER
AREA AS WELL WITH SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD COVER.

BY LATE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE
REGION FOR THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS WILL BE REPLACE WITH A CUT-OFF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL AID IN SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD COVER
WITH COOLER LOW TO MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. LOWER 90S FOR THE HILL
COUNTRY AND MID TO UPPER 90S FOR REMAINING AREAS LOOKS TO BE ON
TAP FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THIS HEATING AND SOME
SLIGHTLY STRONGER CYCLONIC LIFT...ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND 30-40%
CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACTIVITY ACROSS A DECENT AMOUNT OF THE
REGION. NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD RAINS AND THUS LITTLE DROUGHT
RELIEF IS EXPECTED. GFS AND EC MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE MID WEEK ON
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS POSITIONING AND STRENGTH. EC CONSISTENCY HAS
BEEN MORE ERRATIC WITH THE POSITION FROM RUN-TO-RUN VS. GFS MODEL
AND GFS ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE SUGGEST MORE SUPPORT FOR THIS CAMP. A
FRONT MAY SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER BY THURSDAY BUT STALL
NORTH OF THE REGION AND KEEP THE REGION ON THE WARM AND POP-UP
CONVECTIVE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY VS. MORE STRATIFORM RAIN LIKELY
FARTHER NORTH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SOLUTION AND ITS
EVOLUTION THROUGH NEXT WEEK FOR MORE HOPEFUL RAIN RELIEF.

[horselattitudesfarm]

Hopefully one of you great weather-minds can help me with a question about the SOI. As I understand it, everytime the SOI peaks and starts to drop there seems to be episodes of flooding or extreme weather of some sort. From the charts I saw on Accuweather, the SOI looks like it is coming up after being in negative territory for a while. When it peaks and starts to drop again, wet weather is expected in Texas and the central part of the country again from what I heard. My question is this:

How is the SOI related to El Nino, La Nina and really....what is the SOI?

[Ntxw]

Hopefully one of you great weather-minds can help me with a question about the SOI. As I understand it, everytime the SOI peaks and starts to drop there seems to be episodes of flooding or extreme weather of some sort. From the charts I saw on Accuweather, the SOI looks like it is coming up after being in negative territory for a while. When it peaks and starts to drop again, wet weather is expected in Texas and the central part of the country again from what I heard. My question is this:

How is the SOI related to El Nino, La Nina and really....what is the SOI?

This is a very complex question and requires a lot of explaining. The SOI or southern oscillation index is a measure of pressures between Darwin (Australia) and Tahiti (southern Pacific Ocean). It is heavily influenced by El Nino and La Nina especially the long term SOI (30 and 90 day measurements) and is used as one of the indexes by the CPC to declare events. The basic idea is this, when pressures are higher across Australia, convection is brewing across the central and eastern Pacific (raining etc in Tahiti), thus what El Nino loves to do and feeds into the subtropical jet. Days/weeks down the road it streams up to our neck of the woods. El Nino keeps SOI consistently below -8. Some of the biggest SOI negatives are seen during the biggest El Nino's thus some of our biggest rainy periods. A SOI crash, a term often used, means nosedive negative leading about 7-14 days down the road of potential wet period across the US due to the explosion of convection across the tropical Pacific, pineapple express.

Positive SOI is the opposite, lower pressures across Australia and higher in Tahiti. This means rain and tropical convection is over in the Western Pacific and Indonesia which does not link to the subtropical jet, thus dry across the central Pacific. La Nina loves high pressures in the east and squash Pacific rainfall thus we often experience drought as storms have no tropical feed. SOI for La Nina is consistently +8 or higher.

If you are wondering here are the SOI values of late, all consistent with a Major El Nino. Daily SOI fluctuates between positive and negative but over the months and seasons the favored ENSO event will tilt it towards their liking.

Link to daily SOI

Notice how the past month it has all been negative and sometimes very negative, this is consistent with El Nino. 30 day and 90 day values are well below -8. During a La Nina you can pretty much take out the - signs and switch to +. Neutral is within the +8/-8 threshold

So in simple terms

-SOI = lots of Pacific rainfall, lots of storms. the more negative the more storms
+SOI= Dry Pacific, weak subtropical jet and tranquil weather

[Brent]

From Steve McCauley tonight:

This looks to be stronger than your typical summertime weather pattern which means it could bring down yet another summer cold front - but this one may actually cause temperatures to fall below normal for a change! But perhaps more importantly, it has the potential of bringing more than just a 20% coverage of showers and storms.