North Central GOM

[northjaxpro]

There have been a few good opportunities for Tropical Development over the past several weeks, but the shear just wouldn't allow development.

Any break in shear for a few days at least could allow for something to possibly form, IF there is even a disturbance present at the time.

I'd like to see a consolidated MCS, something organized roll off the land to trust potential better chance or if a wave can survive the Caribbean and get to the gulf (if that is even possible). Too much has it been strung out, spin a weak low here, weak low there, frontal boundary, none of it is bundled enough to organize too much of a mess.

Yeah, 95L from the week before last is a perfect example of this. That strung out trough axis did produce several Low pressure waves all during that week in the NE GOM, but the shear was relentless. 95L actually begun to organize despite the shear presence and I and several on here actually thought it may have been a tropical depression when it drifted back offshore in Apalachee Bay on August 2. However, shear and land interaction prevented it from being classified as such.

The shear is just too strong across the basin this season. It would not surprise me at all if we do not get any developing tropical cyclones this month. We may get a couple of homegrown systems off the SE U.S. coast or when frontal systems make headway farther south into the GOM as we ehead into September. They will probably be sheared cyclones if we do get such development. I saw wxman57 and NDG allude to 1997 as a good analog to compare this season with that year. I agree.

[Ntxw]

This snap shot blown up does have a mesoscale convective vortex signature look to it Ntwx... just saying.

Are you predicting development from it?

[northjaxpro]

Absolutely, we all should monitor the GOM. No model support for any system developing right now in the GOM, but definitely conditions can change on a dime which is why we never should sleep on the tropics. But, I think it is safe to say nothing will happen down there in the next 5 day forecasting cycle.

[srainhoutx]

A trough axis extends across the Northern Gulf Coast where an old frontal boundary stalled out and a secondary trough axis extends across the Western Gulf E of Tampico to about 350 miles S of Mobile Bay. Convection is being aided by an upper low moving W across the Bay of Campeche. We would need to see convection consolidate SE of New Orleans over the next 24 hours, but an upper level trough at 500mb is expected to drop SW toward the NW Gulf and Eastern Texas by Monday. Welcomed return of rain chances to areas that have been plagued with very dry conditions since late June. A frontal boundary is expected to drop S across the Plains into Texas mid to late week further enhancing rain chances. If a MSV develops today or tomorrow over the Tennessee Valley Region and pushes into the Gulf, then it would be worth watching a bit more closely. Alicia (1983) formed in this area from a MCV/MCS dropping S into the Gulf, so it tends to raise an eyebrow when we see storms firing over the Gulf in an El Nino year. The convection is not all that deep and certainly not consolidated at this time. Looks like a rain maker for areas that could use the rain across Louisiana and Texas tomorrow into mid next week.

[Ntxw]

A trough axis extends across the Northern Gulf Coast where an old frontal boundary stalled out and a secondary trough axis extends across the Western Gulf E of Tampico to about 350 miles S of Mobile Bay. Convection is being aided by an upper low moving W across the Bay of Campeche. We would need to see convection consolidate SE of New Orleans over the next 24 hours, but an upper level trough at 500mb is expected to drop SW toward the NW Gulf and Eastern Texas by Monday. Welcomed return of rain chances to areas that have been plagued with very dry conditions since late June. A frontal boundary is expected to drop S across the Plains into Texas mid to late week further enhancing rain chances. If a MSV develops today or tomorrow over the Tennessee Valley Region and pushes into the Gulf, then it would be worth watching a bit more closely. Alicia (1983) formed in this area from a MCV/MCS dropping S into the Gulf, so it tends to raise an eyebrow when we see storms firing over the Gulf in an El Nino year. The convection is not all that deep and certainly not consolidated at this time. Looks like a rain maker for areas that could the rain across Louisiana and Texas tomorrow into mid next week.

Very good analysis as always . Agreed if an MCS/MCV remains intact and rolls off then it would need to be monitored, otherwise beneficial rainfall is welcome across the northern and western gulf to give Florida a needed break.

While I'm not wishing for a Caribbean cruiser, I do hope shear relaxes there later this season and tropical waves can bring rains to them and then up into the gulf as weak areas. The shear is not only inhibiting an enthusiast point of view, but causing severe drought down there. These waves are not just for our viewing pleasure they are a part of the annual rainfall climate for them as well.

[LarryWx]

Hey Steve,
Good to see you! Good point about Alicia though I don't consider 1983 an El Niño season, unlike 1982. In other words, I haven't noticed much of a hangover effect from a prior strong Niño as the norm though I suppose 1983 could have had hangover since it was another very quiet season. But look at how active was 1998-9! My point is that I don't count the follow up to a Niño as a second Niño:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Hey Steve,
Good to see you! Good point about Alicia though I don't consider 1983 an El Niño season, unlike 1982. In other words, I haven't noticed much of a hangover effect from a prior strong Niño as the norm though I suppose 1983 could have had hangover. Look at how active was 1998-9!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

What about 1973? This one really surprised me given it was the strongest La Nina since 1950

[srainhoutx]

:uarrow: Hey Steve,
Good to see you! Good point about Alicia though I don't consider 1983 an El Niño season, unlike 1982. In other words, I haven't noticed much of a hangover effect from a prior strong Niño as the norm:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

Greetings Larry. One could argue that we've been transitioning to an El Nino pattern since last year, but the atmosphere has just been a little slow to respond. Technically you are correct that 83 was a 'hangover year', but as we have been preaching to folks since March and April, the Gulf and the SE United States would be the areas to monitor this season for the greater chance of tropical development. It only takes one...

[LarryWx]

What about 1973? This one really surprised me given it was the strongest La Nina since 1950

Excellent point. But then again, look at the very active 1878 and 1998, which both also closely followed superNinos. Also, 1973 did have a whopping 17 TD's! So, was 1973 all that inactive in reality? I don't know. Maybe some post Nino's have hangover and some don't?

[Ntxw]

Excellent point. But then again, look at the very active 1878 and 1998, which both also closely followed superNinos. Also, 1973 did have a whopping 17 TD's! So, was 1973 all that inactive in reality? I don't know. Maybe some post Nino's have hangover and some don't?

1973 had a total ACE of 43, that is well below average and akin closer to 1997's 40. For a La Nina that is very unusual, especially of that magnitude.

Small sample of the four, but check out the AMO values for them. 1973 and 1983 were mostly negative and 1878 and 1998 were positive. Wonder if that played a role in hangover?

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data

[LarryWx]

Perhaps that is the key. Meanwhile, consistent with the idea that this season still has a very long way to go, look out in Sep if within the circle were to dominate for the MJO based on the four warmest Nino's in Sep since 1975 having the most activity when within the circle. See the "MJO dead" thread for more details, if interested, in case you missed it. That and other very strong Niño climo suggests we could very well see a couple of threatening H's then (though very likely not CV geneses) and into early Oct., especially if there's a lot of Sep days within the circle.

[tailgater]

looks like something trying to spin up, off the tip of the Miss delta and should move inland fairly quickly.

[LarryWx]

Ntxw,
Oops, check the 2015 indicators thread, not MJO dead thread, for more details about dead MJO when Sep over +1.0 in Sep. if interested.

[lovingseason2013]

Def something going on. Any model support or discussion yet?


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[lovingseason2013]

Def something going on. Any model support or discussion yet?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[NCSTORMMAN]

Where is the center at? I see one southwest of Louisiana and one to the east of the southern tip of Louisiana.

[floridasun78]

not thing going form in gulf bit high shear

[NCSTORMMAN]

not thing going form in gulf bit high shear

This image begs to differ. Almost no shear present at this time in Gulf of Mexico. Unless I am reading the wrong map.

[floridasun78]

let see but not thing openning my eye in gulf yet

[NCSTORMMAN]

let see but not thing openning my eye in gulf yet

Same here just pointing out it will not be shear that is to blame. I think time is the factor. It is running out of time to develop into anything before interaction with land. There are two CoCs and that is cancelling each other out too. Just my opinion not a forecast of course.