ATL: DANNY - Models
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ATL: DANNY - Models
Euro coming in stronger so far thru 144hrs.
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Re: Wave in Eastern Atlantic
Euro much stronger... Islands watch out.


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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I'm taking the details with a huge grain of course since no model is anywhere close to reliable a week or more out for something that has yet to become a TC, but fwiw the 0Z Euro takes this to the L.A.'s on 8/25 and then threatens P.R. early on 8/26. Again, HUGE grain at this early stage, especially with this being a strong Nino. Regardless, I still am educatedly guessing that one named storm will form somewhere in the basin this month. Could this be the one that forms? Who knows?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Yellow Evan
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ATL: INVEST 96L- Models
Run looks off.
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL962015 08/16/15 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 41 51 59 66 72 80 88 91
V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 41 51 59 66 72 80 88 91
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 31 38 47 57 66 76 89 100
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 9 7 5 5 6 7 4 5 5 5 4 5 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 4 7 5 1 5 3 1 2 0 -2 -4
SHEAR DIR 106 81 61 41 27 44 61 172 204 35 66 89 188
SST (C) 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.2
POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 138 138 135 132 132 134 136 136 138 137 139
ADJ. POT. INT. 136 138 140 140 137 134 134 136 138 137 137 135 136
200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 9 9
700-500 MB RH 64 65 64 65 66 64 65 62 65 66 63 54 50
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 5 6 7 8
850 MB ENV VOR 56 59 62 55 45 40 34 26 35 30 28 11 21
200 MB DIV 4 6 31 57 68 63 68 85 101 53 -1 -29 -40
700-850 TADV -1 -4 -6 -5 -5 -6 -4 -1 -3 -9 -3 -1 0
LAND (KM) 995 1120 1247 1377 1508 1782 1797 1545 1300 1096 934 823 759
LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.7 10.8 11.0 11.0 11.0 10.9 11.1 11.3
LONG(DEG W) 25.7 26.9 28.1 29.4 30.7 33.4 36.3 39.0 41.7 44.2 46.4 48.3 49.8
STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 13 13 14 14 13 13 12 10 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 16 15 14 15 15 14 19 13 12 23 22 33 30
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 35. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 9. 10. 12. 15. 14.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 21. 31. 39. 46. 52. 60. 68. 71.
** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962015 INVEST 08/16/15 06 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%)
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962015 INVEST 08/16/2015 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) * ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL962015 08/16/15 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 41 51 59 66 72 80 88 91
V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 41 51 59 66 72 80 88 91
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 31 38 47 57 66 76 89 100
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 9 7 5 5 6 7 4 5 5 5 4 5 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 4 7 5 1 5 3 1 2 0 -2 -4
SHEAR DIR 106 81 61 41 27 44 61 172 204 35 66 89 188
SST (C) 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.2
POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 138 138 135 132 132 134 136 136 138 137 139
ADJ. POT. INT. 136 138 140 140 137 134 134 136 138 137 137 135 136
200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 9 9
700-500 MB RH 64 65 64 65 66 64 65 62 65 66 63 54 50
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 5 6 7 8
850 MB ENV VOR 56 59 62 55 45 40 34 26 35 30 28 11 21
200 MB DIV 4 6 31 57 68 63 68 85 101 53 -1 -29 -40
700-850 TADV -1 -4 -6 -5 -5 -6 -4 -1 -3 -9 -3 -1 0
LAND (KM) 995 1120 1247 1377 1508 1782 1797 1545 1300 1096 934 823 759
LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.7 10.8 11.0 11.0 11.0 10.9 11.1 11.3
LONG(DEG W) 25.7 26.9 28.1 29.4 30.7 33.4 36.3 39.0 41.7 44.2 46.4 48.3 49.8
STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 13 13 14 14 13 13 12 10 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 16 15 14 15 15 14 19 13 12 23 22 33 30
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 35. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 9. 10. 12. 15. 14.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 21. 31. 39. 46. 52. 60. 68. 71.
** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962015 INVEST 08/16/15 06 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%)
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962015 INVEST 08/16/2015 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
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- Yellow Evan
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models
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- gatorcane
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Re:
TheStormExpert wrote:Well at least the Euro starts to weaken it as it heads towards Puerto Rico 240hrs. out. This means it notices the very unfavorable conditions(shear wise) in the Caribbean/NE Caribbean.
Maybe if it stays at or around 10N most of it's life in the MDR it may possibly have a chance.
Don't forget the Euro also showed zero development of this invest even within short to medium range guidance until the 12Z model run yesterday where it suddenly started showing something and the following 00Z run was even more bullish. Should we actually have any confidence in what the conditions will be like at 240 hours should the invest still be around then and in an area where the Euro shows it (around Puerto Rico / Leewards)?
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models
Gatorcane,I can I see my images fine.
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- srainhoutx
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Re: Re:
gatorcane wrote:
Right CAT 3 is overdone but I think it might mean development chances for something named are increasing, even if it is a tropical storm.cycloneye wrote:
Luis, I can't see your images.
Luis, those images are not showing up for me either.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models
Well,I upload them on ImageShack.I don't know if that has to do with it.I have windows 10,the latest Microsoft upgrade.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models
Oh boy,some see them and others not.what the tech ultimate things do. 

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