2015 CPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

Euro has CPAC-WPAC basin crosser. Really intensifies it:





Looks like we can get some nice ACE if it bombs out early.

[Yellow Evan]

Uh oh. 0z GFS.

[WALL-E]

Euro has CPAC-WPAC basin crosser. Really intensifies it:





Looks like we can get some nice ACE if it bombs out early.

Can't wait to see these twin long tracker sailing across the Pacific.

ECMWF looks very confident about the CPAC activity, we'll see.

[Kingarabian]

Uh oh. 0z GFS.

So far the models seem to be shifting more and more East.

All about timing.

[Yellow Evan]

Still too close for comfort. Thank goodness it's a LONG ways out and ECMWF shows something totally different.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS raises an eyebrow during my upcoming vacation to Oahu.

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS shows a Cat.1 hurricane heading NE towards Hawaii near Honolulu from the SW.

Hr.168


Hr.174


Hr.186

[Kingarabian]

2009 Hurricane Neki thread. This storm was originally shown by the GFS to do a similar N/NE turn as it is showing now. Fortunately, extra ridging moved it further west, enough to miss Hawaii when it turned north.

viewtopic.php?f=71&t=106869&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS

[Yellow Evan]

Good news here is the 12z ECMWF keeps this way south.

[Kingarabian]

Good news here is the 12z ECMWF keeps this way south.

I agree. Still a long way out. We'll see who gives in to who.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS develops it much quicker than its previous runs. Trough catches it early and sends it into the big island.

The latest track philosophy seems to be (for the GFS that is) is how quick it develops. The sooner it develops the likely it gets picked up earlier and misses Hawaii. Also if it develops too late, the trough will pick it up but then the ridge builds in time to push it away from Hawaii.

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF rolling out is nothing like the GFS is odd.

Also worth noting, GFS ensembles are in the camp of the GFS.



Minor models like the NOGAPS are in the ECMWF camp



CMC on the other hand is even more E than the GFS. Def siding with the ECMWF/NOGAPS side for now.

[Kingarabian]

i wonder why they show such significant differences in the steering.

i for one prefer the Euro, especially near Hawaii.

Also worth noting that the GFS has been trending East in its past few runs. Wouldn't be surprised if it eventually showed something like the CMC.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro further north east than the 12z run @ 192hrs.

[Yellow Evan]

Slightly more east, but also a little weaker.

Given the time of year, I'd think the ECMWF situation is more likely.

[Kingarabian]

Slightly more east, but also a little weaker.

Given the time of year, I'd think the ECMWF situation is more likely.

192 hrs 12z

192 hrs 00z


240 hrs 12z

240 hrs 00z

I think through the 240 hours, the track shift is considerable.

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS back west again:

[Alyono]

CPHC mentioning this now

[TheStormExpert]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON AUG 17 2015

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii remain disorganized. Environmental conditions will support some gradual development and organization over the next couple of days as the low remains nearly stationary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent.