ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SW OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 09N30W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
W AT 15 KT OVER A PERIOD OF 24 HOURS. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB SHOW THE WAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE THAT ALONG
WITH A DIVERGENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 27W AND 33W. SAHARAN
DRY AIR AND DUST ENGULF THE SYSTEM...THUS HINDERING CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Gustywind]

Invest 96-L: High Chance of Tropical Cyclone Development in the Atlantic

By Chris Dolce

Published Aug 17 2015 05:38 AM EDT

weather.com

http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane ... l-atlantic

It's been a very quiet first half of August in the Atlantic basin of the tropics. No tropical depressions or named storms have formed yet this month, largely due to unfavorable upper-level winds and dry air.

August is the first month of a period that runs through September and into early October where we typically look farther east into the Atlantic for development. This is in addition to the typical formation areas that are closer to the United States.

Right now, we have our eyes on an area of interest in the far eastern Atlantic dubbed Invest 96-L. This is a naming convention used by the National Hurricane Center to identify features they are monitoring for potential future development into a tropical depression or a tropical storm. For more details on what an Invest is, click the link below.

The National Hurricane Center has given Invest 96-L a 70 percent chance (high chance) of further development into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next five days as it tracks west across the open Atlantic Ocean.

[Alyono]

strongly disagree with the high chance of development. Very limited development indicated by the models. In addition, convection continues to decrease. The thermodynamic environment appears to be too hostile

[Gustywind]

Interresting discussion from the Pro Mets of Antigua..

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
ISSUED BY ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
05:03 UTC AUGUST 17 2015

OF INTEREST IS AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 1980 MILE AWAY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE 00Z MODEL RUN SHOWS AN INTERESTED PICTURE. SOME OF THE HURRICANE MODELS BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. OF COURSE THIS IS JUST A PRELIMINARY FORECAST BASED UPON THE LATEST INFORMATION. IT MEANS THAT WE HAVE TO REMAIN VIGILANT AND FOLLOW THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM.


FORECASTER

ORVIN PAIGE

[Gustywind]

50-70%

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171128
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located
several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues
to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical
depression will likely form by the middle of the week while the
system moves westward or west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Gustywind]

Hey Cycloneye or Gatorcane do you have the latest Best Track? thanks.

[tolakram]

Just coming into range of this live loop.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20NHE&lat=19&lon=-28&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

[tolakram]

saved visible loop

[ninel conde]

JB isnt terribly impressed. My guess is it will dry up.

[NDG]

It would look even worst if it was at a higher latitude.
IMO, the best chances for development if any is over the next 72 hrs or so after that it will start encountering the drier conditions.

[Gustywind]

From SSD...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
17/1145 UTC 9.6N 31.0W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/0545 UTC 9.8N 29.9W T1.0/1.0 96L

[wxman57]

I'm not impressed, either. I think it could get organized enough to become a TD or weakTS east of the Carbbean, but it should be weakening as it nears the islands and dissipating in the eastern Caribbean.

[abajan]

I'm not impressed, either. I think it could get organized enough to become a TD or weakTS east of the Carbbean, but it should be weakening as it nears the islands and dissipating in the eastern Caribbean.

In relation to the Lesser Antilles, what is your best guess of its future track? I'm aware of a rule of thumb that weaker systems tend to move more westerly. So, assuming it develops at all, would it be more likely to affect the Windward Islands or the Leeward Islands?

[gatorcane]

[AtlanticWind]

Rotation much more evident this morning , justs needs a little more convection to be classified I would think.

[TheStormExpert]

Not looking too good this morning, basically a limited convection swirl! May still get a TD or weak TS before dry air caves it in and it heads into the Caribbean shredder.

[gatorcane]

are we sure it is heading to the Caribbean and if so, that conditions will be hostile enough to kill it completely when it gets there? If it manages to develop in the next 5 days and deepen enough it could head more WNW or NW at least temporarily with mid-level steering (there looks like there will be a progged weakness in the Central Atlantic at least temporarily before ridging buildings back in) and end up in an area just north of the Caribbean right? Too soon to be sure on the fate of 96l.

Right now though it is not looking the greatest but there are models still very bullish on development.

[hurricanekid416]

There is a nice circulation, it needs convection however

[Alyono]

looking less organized than before. I'd say 20% chance of development. For a US threat, need to look toward Hawaii once again

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: are we sure it is heading to the Caribbean and if so, that conditions will be hostile enough to kill it completely when it gets there? If it manages to develop in the next 5 days and deepen enough it could head more WNW or NW at least temporarily with mid-level steering (there looks like there will be a progged weakness in the Central Atlantic at least temporarily before ridging buildings back in) and end up in an area just north of the Caribbean right? Too soon to be sure on the fate of 96l.

Right now though it is not looking the greatest but there are models still very bullish on development.

The only Global Model still bullish on this is the UKMET and that's not a good model. The only hurricane model that is bullish is the HWRF(go figure).