ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Looking at the RAMMB floater to me it appears to be maintaining, not getting less organized. There is big area of convection building on the SE side and let's see if it can wrap some of that into the LLC. Also looks like there is a hint it could be trying to move slightly more N of due west so could be a sign it may start gaining a little latitude as some of the models have suggested it would:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

As an aside, looking at that floater there is another spin further east and yet another cluster of thunderstorms moving off Africa. Activity certainly on the increase in the MDR.

[TheStormExpert]

One thing for sure is most of the deep convection has been limited to the south of it where the ITCZ is due to dry air/SAL to the north.

[SFLcane]

looking less organized than before. I'd say 20% chance of development. For a US threat, need to look toward Hawaii once again

Agree if it wants to do something it better be soon. Might see naked swirl this evening with all that dry air and strong windshear nearby . This basin is pathetic

[TheStormExpert]

Looking at the RAMMB floater to me it appears to be maintaining, not getting less organized. There is big area of convection building on the SE side and let's see if it can wrap some of that into the LLC. Also looks like there is a hint it could be trying to move slightly more N of due west so could be a sign it may start gaining a little latitude as some of the models have suggested it would:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

As an aside, looking at that floater there is another spin further east and yet another cluster of thunderstorms moving off Africa. Activity certainly on the increase in the MDR.

Your always interesting to listen to.

By the way do you happen to know if any Kelvin Waves are helping this increase in moisture across the Atlantic and MDR?

[TheStormExpert]

looking less organized than before. I'd say 20% chance of development. For a US threat, need to look toward Hawaii once again

Agree if it wants to do something it better be soon. Might see naked swirl this evening with all that dry air and strong windshear nearby . This basin is pathetic

What wind shear? Where it is there is only 0-10kts of wind shear.

[Riptide]

Even in above-average seasons. You don't see most waves blow up right off the coast. The average longitude of formation is about 50W.

I can only surmise the unwarranted pessimism is from past seasons.

[andyis]

I would not rule anything out with invest 96L, it may hold it's own for now, but has some potential to increase it's strength. No one can really predict what may happen down the road~! I can see it strengthening into something more potent, we can only watch and wait!

[gatorcane]

Looking at the RAMMB floater to me it appears to be maintaining, not getting less organized. There is big area of convection building on the SE side and let's see if it can wrap some of that into the LLC. Also looks like there is a hint it could be trying to move slightly more N of due west so could be a sign it may start gaining a little latitude as some of the models have suggested it would:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

As an aside, looking at that floater there is another spin further east and yet another cluster of thunderstorms moving off Africa. Activity certainly on the increase in the MDR.

Your always interesting to listen to.

By the way do you happen to know if any Kelvin Waves are helping this increase in moisture across the Atlantic and MDR?

Glad somebody finds my comments interesting!

Well looking at this graphic, it appears there is more rising air in the MDR now than we have seen all hurricane season. It might be helping with the increased convection:

[drezee]

The problem with this system is the same as simple as climo. If this system heads through the Eastern Caribbean, then the "Columbian heat low" will open it up as the pressure down there are below 1005. It happens time and time again. It has happened to two nice waves this year as well. It would have to be a healthy TS to survive. Also, it would likely have to accelerate during the trek as well (increasing shear). I think the only survivable path is over or north of the Greater Antilles.

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[Dean4Storms]

Looks like the dry air is taking its toll and the SST's cool slightly near 40W. It might struggle to develop unless moisture and convection can overcome the dry air on the northern periphery and the loss of oceanic heat content doesn't kill the instability.

[Ntxw]

TheStormExpert,

There is an active CCKW phase that is helping with convection across the Atlantic and Africa. This is likely why models have been trying to spin up systems variably. It will remain so throughout this week before suppressed phase may hit. What this does is helps prevent too much sinking air for thunderstorms and systems can pulse convection if shear is not in the way.

[WPBWeather]

Looking at the RAMMB floater to me it appears to be maintaining, not getting less organized. There is big area of convection building on the SE side and let's see if it can wrap some of that into the LLC. Also looks like there is a hint it could be trying to move slightly more N of due west so could be a sign it may start gaining a little latitude as some of the models have suggested it would:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

As an aside, looking at that floater there is another spin further east and yet another cluster of thunderstorms moving off Africa. Activity certainly on the increase in the MDR.

Your always interesting to listen to.

By the way do you happen to know if any Kelvin Waves are helping this increase in moisture across the Atlantic and MDR?

Glad somebody finds my comments interesting!


Well looking at this graphic, it appears there is more rising air in the MDR now than we have seen all hurricane season. It might be helping with the increased convection:

I second that! Gatorcane has consistently posted reasoned and appropriate comments for some years now.

[curtadams]

It looks very unlikely to develop to me. When storms develop they tend to pull north, which will move it right into the huge and strong SAL outbreak on it, above it, and in front of it. If it ever gets going it will be immediately asphyxiated. Maybe it could technically qualify as a cyclone for a bit but the NHC doesn't like to name ephemeral midocean storms.

[ninel conde]

satellite looks awfully dry to me. might be a few clouds left by the time it gets to the carib. 0% chance of anything developing of interest.

[gatorcane]

I wouldn't be so sure about dry air killing this one this time at least not before it gets designated a TD or a TS. 12Z GFS now going with development

[tatertawt24]

What would be the best direction for this thing to go in right now if it wants to stay alive?

[ronjon]

:uarrow: I wouldn't be so sure about dry air killing this one this time at least not before it gets designated a TD or a TS. 12Z GFS now going with development

Just check out the water vapor loop - there is a large envelope of moisture surrounding this feature - real dry air over near 50-60W now.

[gatorcane]

Stays at 50/70:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171755
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands continues to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development over the next several
days, and a tropical depression will likely form by the middle of
the week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward near
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[galaxy401]

^ That was pretty much a copy and paste...

[SFLcane]

looking less organized than before. I'd say 20% chance of development. For a US threat, need to look toward Hawaii once again

Agree if it wants to do something it better be soon. Might see naked swirl this evening with all that dry air and strong windshear nearby . This basin is pathetic

What wind shear? Where it is there is only 0-10kts of wind shear.

Ah record Caribbean windshear awaits along with a wall of dry sinking air. I just don't buy those intensity models at all. Already looks to be choking all to familiar seen in this basin now a days.