ATL: DANNY - Models

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gatorcane
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#61 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 17, 2015 8:41 am

UKMET with a slight West bend at the end:
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HWRF:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

#62 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 17, 2015 8:57 am

Uncle HWRF is still crazy, what an embarrassment.

I wanted to post what I was thinking so if this comes true people can flog me for saying it. :D
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#63 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 17, 2015 8:58 am

One thing that has my attention looking downstream, is this pattern that we haven't seen this time of year in a while (500 MB pattern from ECMWF ensembles below, day 10) - a building ridge over the Western Atlantic - question is will 96L be significant enough down the road and get under that ridge (ala what the UKMET might be hinting at?)?

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#64 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 17, 2015 9:03 am

gatorcane wrote:One thing that has my attention looking downstream, is this pattern that we haven't seen this time of year in a while (500 MB pattern from ECMWF ensembles below, day 10) - a building ridge over the Western Atlantic - question is will 96L be significant enough down the road and get under that ridge (ala what the UKMET might be hinting at?)?



This pattern dives storms right into the worse conditions in the basin, unless somehow the Caribbean becomes more favorable.
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#65 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Aug 17, 2015 9:33 am

12z Model Guidance :darrow:

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12z Intensity Guidance :darrow:

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#66 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Aug 17, 2015 9:34 am

Is it possible the Euro dropped it due to it's mid-range issue?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

#67 Postby Riptide » Mon Aug 17, 2015 11:00 am

12z GFS more bullish.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

#68 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 17, 2015 11:02 am

Riptide wrote:12z GFS more bullish.


Indeed, down to 1005MB at 90 hours
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#69 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 17, 2015 11:15 am

12Z GFS down to 1003MB by hour 114 and heading west
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Aug 17, 2015 11:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#70 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 17, 2015 11:18 am

138 hours:

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#71 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Aug 17, 2015 11:19 am

:uarrow: Winds look relatively weak there.
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#72 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 17, 2015 11:42 am

12Z GEM also coming in and showing development with it stalling a couple of days then heading WNW (not east as it showed before). It shows a 1006MB low by hour 102.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

#73 Postby blp » Mon Aug 17, 2015 11:49 am

I think the 12z Euro will bring it back and the 00z was a bad run. The GFS did the same thing and now brought it back.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

#74 Postby blp » Mon Aug 17, 2015 12:23 pm

12z HWRF still on it. Over doing intensity again IMO.

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#75 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 17, 2015 12:28 pm

HWRF is down to 979MB by hour 84.... :eek:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

#76 Postby blp » Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:08 pm

The Euro is back with it as I thought it would.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

#77 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:11 pm

Enjoying this model stuff even if complete nonsense. :P
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

#78 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:15 pm

SFLcane wrote:Enjoying this model stuff even if complete nonsense. :P
gfs stuff
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#79 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:19 pm

12Z Euro has a decent tropical storm at 90 hours (looking at Weatherbell, can't post graphics).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

#80 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:20 pm

I said decent, well 1003MB at 102 hours. :)
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