ATL: DANNY - Models

#81 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:21 pm

From Instant Weather Maps, saved image.

#82 Postby **SFLcane** » Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:23 pm

Sure I think a moderate TS is possible then full decapitation as it nears the Caribbean. We shall see

#83 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:27 pm

SFLcane wrote:Sure I think a moderate TS is possible then full decapitation as it nears the Caribbean. We shall see

Unless it tracks north of the islands.

NCSTORMMAN · #84 Postby **NCSTORMMAN** » Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:27 pm

Most models have this thing turning a little more north and missing the Caribbean correct?

#85 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:28 pm

1000MB now at 114 hours. I should have kept my mouth shut. :lol:

Back to 1003 at 120 hours, so the euro, at this resolution, appears to peak at 1000MB but that's a heck of a lot stronger than nothing. Crazy.

#86 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:29 pm

144 hours

#87 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:34 pm

999MB at 144 hours so it's hanging around, heading west, northwest.

#88 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:39 pm

Seriously.

168 hours, 988MB 57W, 15N

#89 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:42 pm

#90 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:43 pm

Euro coming in a lot stronger indeed. I would say the 12Z guidance overall is quite a bit more bullish and this one needs close watching given where it is headed, the synoptic setup, and time of year.

#91 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:44 pm

Weatherbell Euro plot has this hitting the islands at 988MB right around 15N. 987 as it moves by, so still gaining some strength. Hopefully this run is an outlier.

#92 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:44 pm

Almost like HWRF.

TheStormExpert · #93 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:45 pm

Like to see what JB has to say about the latest Euro run. :lol:

#94 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:46 pm

Tropical tidbits rendition. NE Leewards and Puerto Rico watch out:

#95 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:48 pm

The Euro is showing a large 500MB ridge building to the north across the Western Atlantic which would prevent a turn to the north. Folks if this verifies, we have not seen this large-scale pattern this time of year in a long time.

#96 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:49 pm

988MB at 198 hours.

A deepening storm in the Caribbean during an el nino year?

#97 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:50 pm

#98 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:51 pm

Mark, I will post the 500MB charts and you can continue to post the low-level ones....that ridge is getting stronger out across the SW Atlantic on this run of the Euro. Edge of ridge is near Florida and Eastern Gulf. Of course this is all long-range and subject to change. Should keep the system on a W to WNW heading

#99 Postby **drezee** » Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:54 pm

This run the Euro is screaming at me...It is screaming small scale dynamics driven error...Do you see the pressure gradient on that thing? It literally develops it like a meso-scale hurricane. Could it happen? Yes...but the skill in forecasting such a small system with that intensity has to be very low. I need two more runs to show this...

PTrackerLA · #100 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:54 pm

Well things just escalated quickly with the 12z models! :eek:

Islands need to watch 96L and that is a pretty scary steering pattern shaping up aftewards...

ATL: DANNY - Models

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

Who is online