ATL: DANNY - Models

[Ivanhater]

Caribbean cruiser perhaps?

[tolakram]

... and it's gone, looks like it smacks right into Hispaniola?

[drezee]

Also if this happen per the Euro, then there would be whitepapers galore on this one. Heck, I might write a white paper on it. Forecasting a mini-cane from 5-8 days out...

[Alyono]

988MB at 198 hours.

A deepening storm in the Caribbean during an el nino year?

Emily in 1987 underwent very rapid intensification in the East Caribbean during a strong el niño

[gatorcane]

... and it's gone, looks like it smacks right into Hispaniola?

http://imageshack.com/a/img913/2065/CMpNXP.gif

Still there but impacted by Hispaniola. The end of the ridge is sitting right over Florida but ridge holding strong.

[tolakram]

A mini-cane, in a high shear zone, subject to giant fluctuations based on upper air conditions. I just don't think this run can be very realistic, but really no idea.

[cycloneye]

Like to see what JB has to say about the latest Euro run.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 26m26 minutes ago  Dale City, VA
While not to the intensity of the HWRF ( 979 mb) the ecmwf more bullish on 96 L bringing it to ts, aiming islands 7-9 days

[emeraldislenc]

so what about the track?

[tolakram]

so what about the track?

The euro just ran out to 240 hours, that's as best you can get at the moment. That's a long ways out, a slow moving storm, and just about everything subject to change over the next week.

[gatorcane]

What if the track was just north of the islands on a WNW track, I wonder how strong the Euro would make this? Lots of model watching ahead it looks like.

[Ivanhater]

[chaser1]

This run the Euro is screaming at me...It is screaming small scale dynamics driven error...Do you see the pressure gradient on that thing? It literally develops it like a meso-scale hurricane. Could it happen? Yes...but the skill in forecasting such a small system with that intensity has to be very low. I need two more runs to show this...

Really good point, and this just seems so out of the realm of EURO's long famed strong (and weak) suit. Great at picking up larger global steering and broader surface features, but far less so with meso-like systems - that's always been a greater knack of the GFS. Definitely need to see some continuity of model runs here; that and a maintained structure of overall organization (with the obvious need for convective increase and/or development of a CDO).

As an aside to recent years or even the recent weeks and months of sinking and dryer air, upper level shear "might" remain as the one greatest condition ultimately that could limit intensity beyond T.S. strength. Even now, upper level conditions do NOT appear to be screaming "decapitation". Sure, many of us are in some state of "show me now" but if the EURO even come close to verifying, this would paint a fairly scary potential development. Worse part is, IF 96L does develop and move in the general direction of the lessor Antilles...., the one thing that worries me the most is who might eventually get smacked by a small deepening hurricane under a westward propagating 500mb high - the only prediction i'll make is the one place that i'd be fairly confident that it WON'T hit, would be Hispaniola. That's simply due to the degree in accuracy that far out, and though funny to suggest... any forecast point out at 240 hours would seem to be the one point least likely to verify.

This "could" go poof tonight, but this could well turn out to be that one anomaly within a severely unfavorable year for tropical development. Mother Nature just really doesn't care about any one's definition of an interesting season - it just does what its gonna do. That scenario has played out many times over past years. What is relevant right now, is not El Nino... not MDR conditions two weeks ago, nor Saharan dust and screaming upper level wind shear during the remainder of the season. What is simply relevant now, are simply the players on the field at the moment. Kinda like the 'ol Jimmy Buffet lyric (if i'm off, I think that i'm at least kinda close LOL) "...the weather is here, I wish you were beautiful..." LOL.

[Steve H.]

Okay, before anyone gets any ideas - don't mention the "A" word

[AtlanticWind]

This run the Euro is screaming at me...It is screaming small scale dynamics driven error...Do you see the pressure gradient on that thing? It literally develops it like a meso-scale hurricane. Could it happen? Yes...but the skill in forecasting such a small system with that intensity has to be very low. I need two more runs to show this...

Really good point, and this just seems so out of the realm of EURO's long famed strong (and weak) suit. Great at picking up larger global steering and broader surface features, but far less so with meso-like systems - that's always been a greater knack of the GFS. Definitely need to see some continuity of model runs here; that and a maintained structure of overall organization (with the obvious need for convective increase and/or development of a CDO).

As an aside to recent years or even the recent weeks and months of sinking and dryer air, upper level shear "might" remain as the one greatest condition ultimately that could limit intensity beyond T.S. strength. Even now, upper level conditions do NOT appear to be screaming "decapitation". Sure, many of us are in some state of "show me now" but if the EURO even come close to verifying, this would paint a fairly scary potential development. Worse part is, IF 96L does develop and move in the general direction of the lessor Antilles...., the one thing that worries me the most is who might eventually get smacked by a small deepening hurricane under a westward propagating 500mb high - the only prediction i'll make is the one place that i'd be fairly confident that it WON'T hit, would be Hispaniola. That's simply due to the degree in accuracy that far out, and though funny to suggest... any forecast point out at 240 hours would seem to be the one point least likely to verify.

This "could" go poof tonight, but this could well turn out to be that one anomaly within a severely unfavorable year for tropical development. Mother Nature just really doesn't care about any one's definition of an interesting season - it just does what its gonna do. That scenario has played out many times over past years. What is relevant right now, is not El Nino... not MDR conditions two weeks ago, nor Saharan dust and screaming upper level wind shear during the remainder of the season. What is simply relevant now, are simply the players on the field at the moment. Kinda like the 'ol Jimmy Buffet lyric (if i'm off, I think that i'm at least kinda close LOL) "...the weather is here, I wish you were beautiful..." LOL.

Great post , you summed up the situation

[TheStormExpert]

It is sort of possible that Euro may be reasonable on it's 12z run prior to the islands, but after is just not going to happen unless a miracle were to happen and that shear vanished overnight.

[ronjon]

Okay, before anyone gets any ideas - don't mention the "A" word

hahaha..no way. But these storms do have a tendency to strenghten if sliding along big ridges in the mid-levels.

[TheStormExpert]

Okay, before anyone gets any ideas - don't mention the "A" word

hahaha..no way. But these storms do have a tendency to strenghten if sliding under big ridges in the mid-levels.

I was wondering if maybe that ridge just north of the Caribbean could diverge or kill off the present shear and allow for somewhat more favorable conditions?

[chaser1]

Caribbean cruiser perhaps?

I don't see that being too likely, simply by virtue of what is projected to be a smaller tight core system. I typically think those bull dozer like systems that are more sprawling, to be those that I most recall being most "westward ho". That, and 96L being of small to average size... might be more apt to responding to more subtle upwind mid level (even upper level) cut off's or deepening mid Atlantic troughs.

[chaser1]

This run the Euro is screaming at me...It is screaming small scale dynamics driven error...Do you see the pressure gradient on that thing? It literally develops it like a meso-scale hurricane. Could it happen? Yes...but the skill in forecasting such a small system with that intensity has to be very low. I need two more runs to show this...

Really good point, and this just seems so out of the realm of EURO's long famed strong (and weak) suit. Great at picking up larger global steering and broader surface features, but far less so with meso-like systems - that's always been a greater knack of the GFS. Definitely need to see some continuity of model runs here; that and a maintained structure of overall organization (with the obvious need for convective increase and/or development of a CDO).

As an aside to recent years or even the recent weeks and months of sinking and dryer air, upper level shear "might" remain as the one greatest condition ultimately that could limit intensity beyond T.S. strength. Even now, upper level conditions do NOT appear to be screaming "decapitation". Sure, many of us are in some state of "show me now" but if the EURO even come close to verifying, this would paint a fairly scary potential development. Worse part is, IF 96L does develop and move in the general direction of the lessor Antilles...., the one thing that worries me the most is who might eventually get smacked by a small deepening hurricane under a westward propagating 500mb high - the only prediction i'll make is the one place that i'd be fairly confident that it WON'T hit, would be Hispaniola. That's simply due to the degree in accuracy that far out, and though funny to suggest... any forecast point out at 240 hours would seem to be the one point least likely to verify.

This "could" go poof tonight, but this could well turn out to be that one anomaly within a severely unfavorable year for tropical development. Mother Nature just really doesn't care about any one's definition of an interesting season - it just does what its gonna do. That scenario has played out many times over past years. What is relevant right now, is not El Nino... not MDR conditions two weeks ago, nor Saharan dust and screaming upper level wind shear during the remainder of the season. What is simply relevant now, are simply the players on the field at the moment. Kinda like the 'ol Jimmy Buffet lyric (if i'm off, I think that i'm at least kinda close LOL) "...the weather is here, I wish you were beautiful..." LOL.

Great post , you summed up the situation

Thanks But, the post I REALLY liked was Steve's, above ... Okay, before anyone gets any ideas - don't mention the "A" word

Well, I just didn't want to be the one to actually say it either, LOL. While that scenario won't likely come close to playing out.... that is sorta the point. Maybe not "that" bad and maybe not hitting "that" location, but a Cat. 3 or 4 perhaps somewhere in the islands, Central America, or the Southeast Conus just isn't unreasonable. And that point is irrelevant of how the remainder of the season plays out.

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET with WNW bend at the end: