ATL: DANNY - Models

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chaser1
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Re:

#121 Postby chaser1 » Mon Aug 17, 2015 3:22 pm

:eek:
gatorcane wrote:12Z UKMET with WNW bend at the end:

Image


OH, wouldn't that be interesting?! Some weak surface low likely reflecting in the mid levels as well, just East of the N. Bahamas... and with a fairly strong mid level ridge to the north and northeast of the Lessor Antilles. "If" such played out, then the big questions would be what might the downstream troughing or ridging out west be, what if any East Coast trough remains, and especially whether that big 'ol Mid-Atlantic 500 mg High is moving/building westward - or stationary thus projecting any storm to its south to bend NW around its periphery?? Beware "bridging high pressure ridges".... It really is wild how out of character 96L's present development, appearance, location, and present models all appear, in the over-all context of the record El Nino, Atlantic surface high pressures, and recent dry air. While it all might likely regress to its prior state, that might not occur for at least a few days, week, or even two.
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#122 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Aug 17, 2015 3:36 pm

I am skeptical of any 120+ hour forecast of the mid-latitude Rossby wave guide considering there probably will be two recurving typhoons in the Western Pacific. How and when their energy gets deposited into the mid-latitudes will play a huge role on the development of ridging and troughing over North America and the western Atlantic in the 120-240 hour window.
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Re: Re:

#123 Postby beoumont » Mon Aug 17, 2015 3:43 pm

chaser1:

OH, wouldn't that be interesting?! Some weak surface low likely reflecting in the mid levels as well, just East of the N. Bahamas... and with a fairly strong mid level ridge to the north and northeast of the Lessor Antilles. "If" such played out, then the big questions would be what might the downstream troughing or ridging out west be, what if any East Coast trough remains, and especially whether that big 'ol Mid-Atlantic 500 mg High is moving/building westward - or stationary thus projecting any storm to its south to bend NW around its periphery?? Beware "bridging high pressure ridges".... It really is wild how out of character 96L's present development, appearance, location, and present models all appear, in the over-all context of the record El Nino, Atlantic surface high pressures, and recent dry air. While it all might likely regress to its prior state, that might not occur for at least a few days, week, or even two.


Image
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#124 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 17, 2015 3:55 pm

While it is very early to speculate (but always interesting to speculate), 12Z ECMWF Ensembles are a continuation from the previous run showing a large Western Atlantic ridge expanding west starting this time next week, this would open the door for a CONUS hit should 96L be around then. Below, the edge of the ridge is basically right around Florida and the Bahamas:

144 hours (big weakness off the East Coast of the United States, same as what UKMET shows):
Image

240 hours (ridge has built westward):
Image
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#125 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:17 pm

18z Model Guidance :darrow:
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18z Model Intensity :darrow:
Image
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#126 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:29 pm

18Z GFS run starts soon. Will it be as bullish as the Euro?
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Re: Re:

#127 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:43 pm

cycloneye wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Like to see what JB has to say about the latest Euro run. :lol:



Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 26m26 minutes ago  Dale City, VA
While not to the intensity of the HWRF ( 979 mb) the ecmwf more bullish on 96 L bringing it to ts, aiming islands 7-9 days



979mb with a storm of that size would be bordering on a major hurricane.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

#128 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:44 pm

tolakram wrote:A mini-cane, in a high shear zone, subject to giant fluctuations based on upper air conditions. I just don't think this run can be very realistic, but really no idea.


Yeah, I am not buying it either. Lets not forget how bullish the ECMWF has been at times this year in the Atlantic.
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#129 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:46 pm

No love for the UKMET, it has been the most consistent with this system (consistently bullish) showing development for days now? Now it seems other models are catching up to it.
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#130 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:51 pm

Latest 18Z GFS coming in, looks like it already shows a storm by hour 48ish.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

#131 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:55 pm

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 3m3 minutes ago
@philklotzbach that model needs a drug test :)

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#132 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:58 pm

18Z GFS looks stronger so far, 1004MB by hour 72.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

#133 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Aug 17, 2015 5:08 pm

cycloneye wrote:Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 3m3 minutes ago
@philklotzbach that model needs a drug test :)


Which model? GFS, Euro, UKMET, HWRF, or CMC? :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

#134 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 17, 2015 5:21 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 3m3 minutes ago
@philklotzbach that model needs a drug test :)


Which model? GFS, Euro, UKMET, HWRF, or CMC? :lol:


He is referring to the EURO.
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#135 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Aug 17, 2015 5:37 pm

18z GFS no different really than the 12z run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

#136 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 17, 2015 5:53 pm

One thing is for sure and that is the battle of the titans of models is raging on.Which will be right eventually?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

#137 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Mon Aug 17, 2015 6:18 pm

NDG wrote:
tolakram wrote:A mini-cane, in a high shear zone, subject to giant fluctuations based on upper air conditions. I just don't think this run can be very realistic, but really no idea.


Yeah, I am not buying it either. Lets not forget how bullish the ECMWF has been at times this year in the Atlantic.



Add me to that list as well. The models have been awful this year and one set of runs means much of nothing. How many times did they show an east coast storm in succession last month? Also upper lows has been the rule out there as well, just look out there right now. Just saying this has a long way to go before start getting excited.
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Re:

#138 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Mon Aug 17, 2015 6:23 pm

gatorcane wrote:No love for the UKMET, it has been the most consistent with this system (consistently bullish) showing development for days now? Now it seems other models are catching up to it.



None. Doesnt matter if it has been showing it developing for a week straight. For years its been as bad as the Canadian blowing everything up to a cat 5 and beyond

And it continues :darrow: :lol:
Last edited by CYCLONE MIKE on Mon Aug 17, 2015 6:34 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

#139 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 17, 2015 6:24 pm

HWRF still thinks this is the W-PAC...

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

#140 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 17, 2015 6:27 pm

You gotta admire the HWRF's enthusiasm...It must know we are all looking for something decent to track!

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