ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[OURAGAN]

Convection is on the increase

[chaser1]

Yeah, i'm thinking that providing we don't suddenly see a tremendous drop in convection, then its not unrealistic to think 96L could well be classified as a 1007mb depression by this time tomorrow or tomm. evening.

[gatorcane]

Saved loop. That is a vigorous circulation:

[tropicwatch]

Does anyone have a latest satellite loop?

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=96L&invest=YES&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

[TheStormExpert]

New video up on Tropical Tidbits from Levi Cowan.

@TropicalTidbits: I've posted a video discussion on Invest 96L in the eastern Atlantic: http://t.co/OJu7Fe3IjW

[Weatherboy1]

Definitely maintaining a lot more convection than any of the other waves that were this far out into the Atlantic (others seemed to go "poof" not long after exiting the African coast). Throw in the decent amount of model support and it seems like we may be able to get our first deep tropics TD before long. Think they may want to wait for some deep convection sustaining over the center for maybe 12 hours or so before declaring. My best guess anyway

[Nimbus]

mid August it should be no surprise if this is the first Cape Verde wave to develop.
Its quite far south and has been able to maintain a moisture envelope despite the brutal SAL just to the north.
Even if it fizzles out there should be a strong wave left entering the Caribbean, so the shear forecast may be the best guide.

[blp]

This might be one of the reason 96l has a chance to develop.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice
Strong atmospheric CCKW pushing over MDR now- giving life and shelter to #96L. Window goes away next week

[blp]

What is interesting about small systems like this is how quickly they can intensify and by the same token weaken. This will be a tight rope act 96l will need to execute to reach its max potential. It is actually the perfect type of system for El Nino years since it will be able to exploit small pockets of favorable conditions. Models will have difficulty especially with the intensity on this one.

[blp]

Shear dropping in the Carribean just in time for 96l.

[CourierPR]

mid August it should be no surprise if this is the first Cape Verde wave to develop.
Its quite far south and has been able to maintain a moisture envelope despite the brutal SAL just to the north.
Even if it fizzles out there should be a strong wave left entering the Caribbean, so the shear forecast may be the best guide.

Perhaps it would be a mild surprise given the El Nino and the generally hostile conditions which have prevailed in the MDR.

[TheStormExpert]

Yes shear is decreasing some in the Eastern and Northeastern Caribbean, but just east of the Lesser Antilies it is still high.

[gatorcane]

RAMMB moved floater 1 to this invest now (top of page):
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

Convection building on west side now....

[tolakram]

Direct link to floater. Very vigorous.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[gatorcane]

Yeah that is very vigorous, NHC most definitely are upping the development chances in their next Outlook one would think.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Kind of already looks like a TD to me. I have seen plenty of them in my lifetime. I have seen worse looking get classified as such is all I am saying. I am not MET though.

[CrazyC83]

No need to rush calling it a TD with a system that far out in the ocean though.

[Siker]

Yeah, its current issue is persistent convection (which appears to be building as we pass D-MIN, a good sign).

[NCSTORMMAN]

No need to rush calling it a TD with a system that far out in the ocean though.

No doubt I am not saying it is necessary just an observation.

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm beginning to change my tune with this disturbance. It has displayed resiliency fighting off the adjacent dry air. The convective burst to the west looks promising. The environment is still far from ideal though.