ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

Saved Loops.

[JonathanBelles]

New Post with new ASCAT pass: http://jonathanbelles.com/2015/08/17/tr ... ht-relief/

[cycloneye]

New Post with new ASCAT pass: http://jonathanbelles.com/2015/08/17/tr ... ht-relief/

That is well written discussion that covers all the factors including what we are going thru here.

[NDG]

ASCAT pass does not support upgrade yet.

[Blown Away]

JB seeing activity in the Atlantic...

[Blown Away]

Come on now snap back into reality, this is nowhere near anything like '05 nor will be.

And you can absolutely guarantee that ahh?.....do you have a crystalball.

At present its deep in the monsoon trough and protected from the dry air.

Most of the experts predict at least 1 Major Hurricane, so you just never truly know... The odds are in our favor 96L won't, but there is a chance it will be a major hurricane...

[tatertawt24]

Wow, I'll admit it looks a lot better than when I said it looked dreadful! Rooting for it. <3

[floridasun78]

weatherman from wfor say it be doom near leewards islands because of dry air and shear

[HurricaneTracker2031]

96L could be struggling once it nears the Leeward Islands. However, that is dependent upon how strong it gets before that and if it can power enough strength to combat it. We will see.



Analysis for 96L and other systems: http://goo.gl/gjwpib

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[AJC3]

As others have pointed out, 96L is currently tightroping the boundary between favorable and unfavorable thermodynamic conditions. Staying attached to the ITCZ is undoubtedly helping it maintain/thrive. This continues to be the primary concern for the fledgling system in the short (48 hours) and medium range (3-5 days).

Where I think it will also get interesting is well down the road, toward a week or so out, when it approaches the LA, and the semi-permanent mid oceanic trough (TUTT) as well as the persistent "wall-o-shear" that has been heretofore predominant over the Caribbean.

Around that time frame., there are indications of some sort of fracturing of the TUTT, and the formation/retrogression of a TUTT low, initially somewhere between 65-75W. Climatologically, this is a fairly common occurrence, especially during the latter portion of the hurricane season. What this does is, at least temporarily (during its existence) is to wrap those strong 200MB westerlies around its circulation, thereby "shielding", to some degree, the area in it's downstream eastern flank, or at least place that area in a more divergent upper wind pattern than favors lift/forced ascent. It's not the greatest place for a TC to be, but its certainly less hostile than a straight W or SW jetstreak of 30-50KT+.

While it's quite a ways down the road, it's still something I think we'll eventually need to keep an eye on with this system, whether it remains an invest or becomes a TC.

[Sanibel]

I think this one's a go.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxman57]

I've been in meetings in San Jose, CA all afternoon and just took a look at 96L. Looks impressive, perhaps close to TD classification. I'm thinking NHC may initiate advisories by 15Z. While I don't buy the EC's hurricane moving into the Caribbean next Monday evening, I see no reason it couldn't be a moderate TS with marginally favorable conditions along its path. Once it enters the Eastern Caribbean I think the environment will become more hostile. Certainly could be a weakening TS in the eastern Caribbean. Maybe enough to give Luis some decent rain in PR if he's lucky.

Still too far out to have much confidence, and it doesn't help that there's little model agreement.

[Fego]

The beginning?

[Brent]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands have become better organized over the past 24 hours.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression will likely form within the
next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[MGC]

96L continues to become better organized. I would not be surprised if 96L is upgraded to TD status later today......MGC

[Gustywind]

Increasing numbers for 96 L... and always cruising below 10°N

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
18/0545 UTC 9.5N 34.4W T1.5/1.5 96L
18/0000 UTC 9.3N 33.2W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/1745 UTC 9.8N 32.8W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/1145 UTC 9.6N 31.0W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/0545 UTC 9.8N 29.9W T1.0/1.0 96L

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
10N34W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT OVER A PERIOD OF 24
HOURS. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM THE SURFACE TO
850 MB SHOW THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE
MOISTURE THAT ALONG WITH A DIVERGENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN
31W AND 39W. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST ENGULF THE SYSTEM...THUS
HINDERING CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THIS
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

[Florida1118]

Up to 90/90

Thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands has continued to become better organized this morning.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and only a slight increase in organization would result in the
formation of a tropical depression later today while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[ouragans]

Apparently, floater is down.

[Gustywind]

Look at these numbers, 96L is maybe close to a TD given these numbers... Note the first approach above the 9°N.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
18/1145 UTC 10.2N 35.9W T2.0/2.0 96L
18/0545 UTC 9.5N 34.4W T1.5/1.5 96L
18/0000 UTC 9.3N 33.2W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/1745 UTC 9.8N 32.8W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/1145 UTC 9.6N 31.0W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/0545 UTC 9.8N 29.9W T1.0/1.0 96L