WPAC: KILO - Post-Tropical
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- cycloneye
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WPAC: KILO - Post-Tropical
93C INVEST 150818 0000 7.5N 143.2W CPAC 20
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- Kingarabian
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- cycloneye
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 93C
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST MON AUG 17 2015
For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii remain disorganized. Environmental conditions support development over the next couple of days as the low remains nearly stationary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 50 percent.
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Wednesday afternoon
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST MON AUG 17 2015
For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii remain disorganized. Environmental conditions support development over the next couple of days as the low remains nearly stationary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 50 percent.
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Wednesday afternoon
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- Yellow Evan
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Low moderate shear here. Nothing to stop a formidable tropical cyclone though.
Code: Select all
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST CP932015 08/18/15 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 30 35 40 49 55 60 62 65 66
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 30 35 40 49 55 60 62 65 66
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 26 28 31 35 40 46 53 61
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 6 8 13 13 9 10 6 14 18 12 11 8 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 10 7 4 5 2 3 0 -1 -1 -2 -7 -5
SHEAR DIR 43 30 40 39 28 6 21 87 89 69 77 94 87
SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.5 28.1
POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 159 159 159 158 158 159 159 159 156 150 146
200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -51.6 -52.2 -51.7 -52.5 -51.7 -52.6 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 9
700-500 MB RH 66 67 67 67 69 72 73 72 70 68 64 63 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 38 35 33 33 42 48 49 59 75 78 58 47 23
200 MB DIV 159 143 114 96 78 52 95 109 117 72 61 47 52
700-850 TADV 2 2 3 3 4 2 0 -3 -2 -4 0 2 0
LAND (KM) 1830 1779 1729 1675 1621 1520 1383 1213 1018 824 639 546 511
LAT (DEG N) 7.5 7.8 8.0 8.3 8.6 9.2 9.9 10.7 11.5 12.2 13.2 14.2 15.5
LONG(DEG W) 143.2 143.6 144.0 144.4 144.8 145.5 146.6 148.1 150.0 152.3 154.8 157.1 158.9
STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 9 11 12 13 11 11
HEAT CONTENT 42 38 35 32 27 19 15 24 36 30 18 30 32
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 36. 39. 41. 42.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 20. 29. 35. 40. 42. 45. 46.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932015 INVEST 08/18/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 3.9 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
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- Kingarabian
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:Staying low then recurving over Hawaii, is that what the models show?
GFS + CMC are showing something in that nature.
ECMWF and the Navy keep it moving west.
.
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- Kingarabian
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Per the CPHC discussion:
The computer models continue to develop a tropical cyclone in the monsoon trough far to the SE of the islands. See tropical weather outlooks from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center for the latest on this disturbance. They generally want to take whatever develops within the monsoon trough off to the NW, showing widely varying solutions with vastly different impacts to the state depending on which of the solutions were to verify. By the weekend, there is a still a spread of over 500 miles or so among the various models in where this future system would be if it develops, so it is too soon to say with any certainty if this feature would have any effects on our weather. Stay tuned.
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Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:Low moderate shear here. Nothing to stop a formidable tropical cyclone though.
Yeah, 00z GFS back to showing a hurricane landfall this time on Oahu.

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- Yellow Evan
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Re: Re:
Kingarabian wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:Low moderate shear here. Nothing to stop a formidable tropical cyclone though.
Yeah, 00z GFS back to showing a hurricane landfall this time on Oahu.
http://i.imgur.com/Mnz8Zrw.png
GFS has also been moving the time frame on this up. May need Recon soon.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:Low moderate shear here. Nothing to stop a formidable tropical cyclone though.
Yeah, 00z GFS back to showing a hurricane landfall this time on Oahu.
http://i.imgur.com/Mnz8Zrw.png
GFS has also been moving the time frame on this up. May need Recon soon.
I'd first send in a G-IV plane. Have it scout the environment and then plug the data into the models. Then depending how their tracks hold, if the threat remains then send recon in.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re:
floridasun78 wrote:Recon maybe busy with Atlantic system as get close leedwards i not sure their enough plane both Atlantic and pac ocean specially when do more fight to system
They've done it before. Last year they did it with Bertha and Iselle, and Gonzalo and Ana. In 2007, they did Dean, Erin and Flossie recon.
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- Kingarabian
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- srainhoutx
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 93C
European is a bit N. Regarding Recon, the 53rd may begin the transition back to Hickam Field tomorrow via Travis AFB if tasked.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 93C
srainhoutx wrote:European is a bit N. Regarding Recon, the 53rd may begin the transition back to Hickam Field tomorrow via Travis AFB if tasked.
Yes it's a bit more N than 12 hours ago and big shift N compared to yesterdays 00z run. It's been trending N and East the past 3 runs now.
They'll fly out to Hawaii tomorrow, even though there's no storm yet?
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- Kingarabian
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- Kingarabian
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Re:
floridasun78 wrote:Recon maybe busy with Atlantic system as get close leedwards i not sure their enough plane both Atlantic and pac ocean specially when do more fight to system
In 2007 half the fleet including the G-IV went to Hawaii despite a cat 5 in the caribbean
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- Yellow Evan
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST TUE AUG 18 2015
For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.
1. A widespread area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a nearly stationary area of low pressure is located about 870 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Environmental conditions appear to support some slow development in this area during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 50 percent.
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST TUE AUG 18 2015
For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.
1. A widespread area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a nearly stationary area of low pressure is located about 870 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Environmental conditions appear to support some slow development in this area during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 50 percent.
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