ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[OURAGAN]

TD4 AT 11Am

[OURAGAN]

Message from NHC

[Ntxw]

Nestled and protected by the KW and will remain so for at least 2-3 days. Lets see if it can get strong enough to sustain after the KW leaves and suppression occurs. It has a lot of time though between now and then. I think the test will be once it hits near 60W.

[gatorcane]

Also it is going to have to battle some dry air once it moves out of that monsoon gyre it is in...you can see a large pool out ahead of 96L (that grey milky color). I think we are going to see it struggle some and it may shrink in size a bit as the dry air tries to intrude, but if it gets strong enough before it hits the dry air, it should be OK. My guess is NHC will go with moderate to strong T.S. through the 5-day forecast and probably will mention the dry and stable air it will have to contend with.

[Blown Away]

Based on this graphic, it implies the potential track would move towards the NE Carribean. Conditions may be more conducive if 96L stays out of the eastern Carribean.

[tropicwatch]

I guess a mod needs to update these threads to TD 4.

[Blown Away]

Holy underwear, 100 mph at day 5!!

[gatorcane]

Guess I was wrong on thinking NHC would keep it a T.S. throughout. Wow NHC is going strong at the end forecasting steady intensification to a hurricane

120H 23/1200Z 14.0N 52.4W 85 KT 100 MPH

[Blown Away]

Guess I was wrong on thinking NHC would keep it a T.S. throughout. Wow NHC is going strong at the end forecasting steady intensification to a hurricane

120H 23/1200Z 14.0N 52.4W 85 KT 100 MPH

Per Morpheus, Danny is the one!

[galaxy401]

The NHC thinks it will be a long tracking storm. Let's see what happens!

[Yellow Evan]

Knowing this basin, it'll find a way to not reach 85 knts.

[ConvergenceZone]

Holy underwear, 100 mph at day 5!!

That's very surprising considering how the NHC is usually fairly conservative on the strength of storms initially,

[SouthDadeFish]

NHC sided with the statistical guidance, which they usually do. This forecast has a decent chance of busting too high in my opinion, but recent satellite trends suggest TD4 will stick around for at least the next five days. This storm will be a good case study for dry air interactions with a newly formed TC in a low wind shear environment.

[Yellow Evan]

NHC sided with the statistical guidance, which they usually do. This forecast has a decent chance of busting too high in my opinion, but recent satellite trends suggest TD4 will stick around for at least the next five days. This storm will be a good case study for dry air interactions with a newly formed TC in a low wind shear environment.

Spot on.

The environment reminds me a bit of Hilda's a couple weeks back. I thought the NHC was too high

[TheStormExpert]

100mph, NOT BUYING IT! I MAYBE can see a bare minimal Cat.1 hurricane at best IF it can prove itself a fighter over the next several days and strengthen. Still even a Cat.1 seems low in chance IMO.

I mean when was the last time a Cat.2 hurricane or stronger was in the MDR, my guess 2010/2011ish.

All in all expect a gradual decrease in intensity forecast from the NHC over the next few days.

[MGC]

Not surprised with the upgrade to TD4. We shall see how the cyclone fights off the dry air to its north. As I recall, I've seen some storms keep intensifying despite the close by dry air. We shall see. Guess the Hurricane Hunters will be moving a plane or two to the Caribbean soon....MGC

[TheStormExpert]

Knowing this basin, it'll find a way to not reach 85 knts.

Too funny, but all too true!

[Sanibel]

Plenty of untapped SST's ahead. Climatology finally forced formation.

[PTrackerLA]

Eye opening forecast from the NHC! The islands need to monitor TD4 very closely. I would think a 100mph storm can handle negative conditions way better than the weak system the last Euro was showing last night.

[SeGaBob]

Knowing this basin, it'll find a way to not reach 85 knts.

Too funny, but all too true!

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say it does reach cat 2 even with the el nino.




Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.