ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

Could this become the first major of the season stay tuned

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[CourierPR]

Plenty of untapped SST's ahead. Climatology finally forced formation.

Existing conditions led to formation, not climatology. Climatology is not a weather phenomenon. Climatology (from Greek κλίμα, klima, "place, zone"; and -λογία, -logia) or climate science is the study of climate, scientifically defined as weather conditions averaged over a period of time. ---Wikipedia

[TheStormExpert]

With such model inconsistency in intensity forecasts it's I guess not all that surprising they'd follow the statistical intensity models which have consistent all along. Still don't buy the forecast one bit! Next several advisories should be interesting.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

HWRF/ECMWF has done well so far with this system over the last 48 hours. It's the CMC/GFS that really mucked up genesis.

[emeraldislenc]

I think 100 mph is a good possibility.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Was saying it would be a TD by the end of today all day yesterday and I under did it. I think the 100 MPH is too low. I think the NHC bust on their forecast but not by forecasting it too high.

[Weatherboy1]

Well, I said late yesterday that I expected a designation by 11 a.m. today if convection persisted and looks like that panned out. Generally speaking, the deep Atlantic basin has been a graveyard for tropical waves the past couple of years but this one looks better than anything I've seen in a while. It certainly isn't traveling at 20-25 mph like some of the other waves that basically "flew apart," and that is a good thing for strengthening in my opinion. So 100 mph doesn't seem like too much of a stretch.

As for long-term track? Could be a NE Caribbean storm - which would also mean it misses the hurricane graveyard down by South America that has killed off other waves. So long story short, this one does seem to have a fairly good chance to be a long-tracked, eventual threat to the islands. After that? Still too early to say.

As always, just my opinion by a semi-educated amateur not an expert

[Sanibel]

Plenty of untapped SST's ahead. Climatology finally forced formation.

Existing conditions led to formation, not climatology. Climatology is not a weather phenomenon. Climatology (from Greek κλίμα, klima, "place, zone"; and -λογία, -logia) or climate science is the study of climate, scientifically defined as weather conditions averaged over a period of time. ---Wikipedia

Well, the averaged activity in the hurricane belt would technically bode that formation would be more likely at this time as the season reaches its average peak. Those existing conditions do conform to climatology. Climo does dictate that the SAL wanes, East Atlantic waters warm, and unfavorable conditions slacken etc.

[Alyono]

is most certainly becoming better organized. Possible TS by the afternoon if this continues

[SeminoleWind]

Finally something to watch that has potential, i just hope not to much potential.
What are the chances it passes the islands and just buries itself into central America eventually? i know its waaaaay to early.

[Yellow Evan]

Excuse me, but shouldn't this be Danny per ASCAT at 1230z that showed 35 knt barbs and may have missed the strongest winds?

[ronjon]

Here is NHC's thinking regarding dry air impacts on development. When you have a well-formed cyclone, dry air alone really doesn't inhibit development. From NHC disc 1:

The overall atmospheric and oceanic environments surrounding the
cyclone appear conducive for slow but steady strengthening
throughout the forecast period. The only inhibiting factor will be
occasional brief intrusions of dry mid-level air associated with the
Saharan Air Layer that lies just to the north of the depression.
However, given the very low vertical wind shear of less than 5 kt,
the convective structure is expected to steadily increase in
organization, allowing the dry air intrusions to be mixed out.

[Hammy]

I'm honestly quite surprised that this managed to develop given the surrounding environment. Could reach 50 mph by tomorrow but I don't see it getting anywhere even close to the official forecast,as others have also stated.

[Steve H.]

It'll be interesting to watch the intensity of this system as it progresses toward and near the islands. Right now it's a typical Atlantic storm that is organizing quite well IMO. NHC may be conservative on this one. Stacey Stewart is one of the better mets there though. He gives the most detail of any forecaster. In 2004 he was adamant about Jeanne Not going out to sea early on in the forecast - Kudos there. Long way to go with this one, but it's definitely worth watching (nothing much else right now) since its westward track implies that land may be affected should it avoid disruption.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Here is NHC's thinking regarding dry air impacts on development. When you have a well-formed cyclone, dry air alone really doesn't inhibit development. From NHC disc 1:

The overall atmospheric and oceanic environments surrounding the
cyclone appear conducive for slow but steady strengthening
throughout the forecast period. The only inhibiting factor will be
occasional brief intrusions of dry mid-level air associated with the
Saharan Air Layer that lies just to the north of the depression.
However, given the very low vertical wind shear of less than 5 kt,
the convective structure is expected to steadily increase in
organization, allowing the dry air intrusions to be mixed out.

Only question then is will this ever become well-formed?

[Gustywind]

Guess I was wrong on thinking NHC would keep it a T.S. throughout. Wow NHC is going strong at the end forecasting steady intensification to a hurricane

120H 23/1200Z 14.0N 52.4W 85 KT 100 MPH

Gator considering your input , in terms of tracks, what could happens between the 52W and the Leewards? Do you have an idea of the possible track? Could TD4 will go north and missed all the East carib or move straight on the EC islands ? What are you best guess?

[Mouton]

GFS pressure projections show a ridge building west for the next ten days with a significant high over the Miss/Ala area at day ten. I assume that will block anything coming through in the Car. toward a turn to the North. I believe a very early run by the Euro projected a trip to the far west Gulf near the Texas/Mexico Border.

Of course this is very early speculation at best.

This post is my opinion only and reflects the thinking of a complete novice regarding meteorlogical matters.

[CrazyC83]

If TD4/Danny is pointing straight at the Windward Islands, at what longitude is it in range for Recon? Around 50-55W?

[Alyono]

If TD4/Danny is pointing straight at the Windward Islands, at what longitude is it in range for Recon? Around 50-55W?

for the AF. NOAA could go as far as 40ish if they deploy to Barbados

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Reading this thread is funny in hindsight. "20% chance of development at best" --> NHC increases percentages. "Convection is decreasing" --> NHC increases percentages. Not that I can talk, I was very much opposed to this becoming a tropical depression just two days ago.

The intensity forecast is very complicated. Four, which should be Danny based on this morning's ASCAT pass, is embedded within a generally moist environment for the time being and should be for the next 3-4 days. During that time, steady intensification is possible. If Four/Danny can consolidate an inner core before leaving the safe haven of the monsoon trough, NHC's intensity forecast could certainly come true. That's a big if though. An equally plausible situation is that the system ingests dry air and remains steady state until dying at the end of the period.