WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

That argument is getting old 'winds usually lag with the satellite presentation' what other support can you can post to justify this system is not being underestimated in intensity.

That's a legit argument and there have been plenty of storms with Recon where they found lower winds than the T-numbers.

I think 115 knts is a good estimate. CI values are 6.0, 6.5, and 5.8, with lower FT values. With the ongoing ERC, I see no reason IMO to go higher with the satellite estimates.

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 AUG 2015 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 18:09:35 N Lon : 137:21:09 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 950.6mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 6.1 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -22.2C Cloud Region Temp : -74.7C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 108km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 23.0 degrees

[euro6208]

Taiwan is going to be really anxious with that last second turn to the north. Models either hits Taiwan or misses very closely...

Over 30C in the forecast path...

[euro6208]

Both EURO and GFS misses Taiwan and recurves it between Taiwan and Okinawa as a Cat 5...

Peaks it at 910 mb and 886 mb where that hotspot near Luzon is located...

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 16//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 758 NM SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SMALL 5 NM DIAMETER EYE WITH SLIGHTLY THINNING CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VWS AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. TY 16W
CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH WILL
LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM. BY TAU 48,
ENVIRONMENTAL AND UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE,
ALLOWING TY 16W TO RE-INTENSIFY.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO THE
NORTH WILL WEAKEN THE STR, CAUSING TY 16W TO SHIFT POLEWARD.
DEGRADED UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW A SPREAD IN THE
LATER TAUS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE POLEWARD
TURN, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[Yellow Evan]

That argument is getting old 'winds usually lag with the satellite presentation' what other support can you can post to justify this system is not being underestimated in intensity.

That's a legit argument and there have been plenty of storms with Recon where they found lower winds than the T-numbers.

I think 115 knts is a good estimate. CI values are 6.0, 6.5, and 5.8, with lower FT values. With the ongoing ERC, I see no reason IMO to go higher with the satellite estimates.

There has also been storms @1.5 that recon found with almost hurricane strength winds i recall.
The ADT you totally rely on is not even reliable with pineye's as a rule of thumb 37,85,91 all three and current micro pass's used with the highest T values WILL give a better estimate. .

That is true too in smaller systems where a nice CDO is evident and a well-defined LLC has persisted a long time, alongwing for the wind field to catch up to its structure.

Goni had a pinhole eye at one point (not as small as some other pinhole eye's like Wilma's), but now it's undergone an eyewall replacement cycle where you usually see some slightly weakening. I haven't seen any major degrade in the satellite presentation from earlier so I think it is still 115 knts, but it may have been 120-125 knts yesterday. Regarding ADT's use, it can be accurate depending the scene type.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 AUG 2015 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 18:26:41 N Lon : 136:14:36 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 948.3mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 5.5 5.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : -30.6C Cloud Region Temp : -69.7C

Scene Type : EYE

17/2032 UTC 18.1N 136.8E T5.5/5.5 GONI -- West Pacific

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 18//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 827 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 7-NM DIAMETER EYE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT AND CONCENTRIC DVORAK FIXES FROM
PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO
20 KNOT) VWS AND SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY THAT ARE
EASILY OFFSET BY STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH WILL LIMIT
THE INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM. BY TAU 48, ENVIRONMENTAL AND UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE, ALLOWING TY 16W TO
RE-INTENSIFY.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO THE
NORTH WILL WEAKEN THE STR, CAUSING TY 16W TO SHIFT POLEWARD. DEGRADED
UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 72, BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW A SPREAD IN THE LATER TAUS. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN, THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Taiwan

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 AUG 2015 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 18:40:47 N Lon : 130:56:30 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 950.6mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.5 5.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : -8.5C Cloud Region Temp : -65.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 108km
- Environmental MSLP : 1005mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.1 degrees

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 181408
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TYPHOON ATSANI (17W) ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP172015
200 AM CHST WED AUG 19 2015

...TYPHOON ATSANI NOW MOVING NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE. RESIDENTS OF AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN ISLANDS IN THE FAR
NORTHERN MARIANAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ATSANI DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 154.4E

ABOUT 560 MILES EAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 570 MILES EAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 580 MILES EAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 595 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 695 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON ATSANI WILL BE
NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 154.4 EAST...MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. ATSANI WILL MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL MOTION FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE UP TO 140 MPH. TYPHOON ATSANI IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER...
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT UP TO 195 MILES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

SIMPSON

[euro6208]

EURO still bottoms this out as a Cat 5, 908 mb as it heads north and passing between Taiwan and Okinawa whereas GFS agrees on the same track and bottoms it out as a monster 897 mb monster.

Miyako Jima and Yaeyama Islands could bear the brunt...

[euro6208]

Eye clearing out and warming...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 20//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 504 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED DEPICTS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 12-NM DIAMETER
EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES AND THE CURRENT STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VWS AND SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY THAT ARE OFFSET BY STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR
TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU
48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 48, AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL CAUSE A BREAK IN THE STR,
SHIFTING TY 16W POLEWARD. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH WILL LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION IN
THE SHORT TERM. BY TAU 24, TY 16W IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO AN
IMPROVED ENVIRONMENTAL AND UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, LEADING TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND LOWER OHC
VALUES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD
DUE TO A BREAK IN THE STR. WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS DEGRADED
CONDITIONS PERSIST. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW A SPREAD IN THE
LATER TAUS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE POLEWARD
TURN, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

Here now beginning to doubt if this will ever be a Cat5 or Cat4. It spent a long time organizing a nice eye and until now it's still struggling. It is to note though that the warmest SST's it will encounter is located northeast of Luzon.

[tonypace]

How likely is it that the subtropical ridge will remain in place long enough for Goni to clear the south of Taiwan and take a turn up the Strait of Taiwan?

[wxmann_91]

Here now beginning to doubt if this will ever be a Cat5 or Cat4. It spent a long time organizing a nice eye and until now it's still struggling. It is to note though that the warmest SST's it will encounter is located northeast of Luzon.

It's already been at Cat 4 status if I recall correctly but agree with the Cat 5... too many inner core issues and there's some light northerly shear that is causing some dry air entrainment. Most likely already peaked as SST's will drop from here.

[1900hurricane]

If Goni can finish clearing out its eye before the sun goes down over Atsani, these could be some very photogenic big-eyed twins.

[Yellow Evan]

Looking a little better. Convection is deeper and the storm has avoided dry air for now. OHC/SST do increase somewhat in the next day or so. However, dry air may slow intensification, and I also doubt this makes it to Cat 5.