ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[Frank2]

That northeast flow to the NE looks like it's flattening out the system a bit:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-animated.gif

[MaineWeatherNut]

Does anyone think that shear will destory Tropical Depression 4 based on the conditions of the Atlantic all season and EL Nino. I say this doesn't survive the shear. Just an opinion not a forecast

what shear? Shear is forecast to be less than 10 kts through the next 5 days

Yeah at least for the next 5 days Shear won't be an issue. If anything the Dry air will be an issue but with low shear there's not much to get the Dry Air into the cyclone in amounts that would really impact it.

[galaxy401]

Does anyone think that shear will destory Tropical Depression 4 based on the conditions of the Atlantic all season and EL Nino. I say this doesn't survive the shear. Just an opinion not a forecast

what shear? Shear is forecast to be less than 10 kts through the next 5 days

Yeah at least for the next 5 days Shear won't be an issue. If anything the Dry air will be an issue but with low shear there's not much to get the Dry Air into the cyclone in amounts that would really impact it.

Yeah short term probably not. In the long term, I think it will depend on if the storm recurves north of the Caribbean where it could avoid the strong shear.

[gatorcane]

Another great discussion posted by Stewart for the 5pm NHC advisory.

[xironman]

That northeast flow to the NE looks like it's flattening out the system a bit:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-animated.gif

I fail to see any constriction of the outflow, as others have said there is dry air. But in the absence of shear it is hard to see how it will impact the storm greatly.

[gatorcane]

[deltadog03]

delete...oops

[CrazyC83]

The intensity forecast is definitely an uncertain one. Rapid deepening is definitely a possibility, I agree.

[Ivanhater]

Really wrapping up

[MetroMike]

Quite nice to have something to track that isn't a sheared mess like previous systems in past years
Just hope it won't cause havoc later on..

[andyis]

And we now have Tropical Storm Danny!

[deltadog03]

Live now on Facebook Live
Hey everyone! We finally have something to track. I am actually a little surprised NHC is so bullish on the strength, but I see the potential this one has. Going to do a Facebook Live update and talk a little bit about it if yall want to watch at around 5:30pm E Self plug yes, sorry

https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons

on twitter as well

https://twitter.com/wxmanchris

[SouthFLTropics]

Danny is truly the best looking storm I can recall seeing in the Atlantic basin in a very long time. Classic appearance...Wondering what Danny has in store down the road. Looks like many nights of model watching in the future.

[tatertawt24]

Looks good, but I'm not getting my hopes up at all. The Atlantic has been trolling us since 2013.

[Hammy]

Looks good, but I'm not getting my hopes up at all. The Atlantic has been trolling us since 2013.

I'm highly doubtful as far as the intensity forecast, but to be fair last year underforecast everything and nothing in 2013 was ever expected to get this strong (in fact only three storms were ever forecast at any point that year to reach storm intensity, and Karen was the only one of those that didn't)

It's looking surprisingly good though, especially as much as things have struggled so far this year in the MDR; I honestly wasn't expecting to see so much as a tropical depression out there the entire season.

http://tbacomic.deviantart.com/art/Danny-554653003
edit: figured I'd link my comic today as it's relevant in this case.

[tatertawt24]

Looks good, but I'm not getting my hopes up at all. The Atlantic has been trolling us since 2013.

I'm highly doubtful as far as the intensity forecast, but to be fair last year underforecast everything and nothing in 2013 was ever expected to get this strong (in fact only three storms were ever forecast at any point that year to reach storm intensity, and Karen was the only one of those that didn't)

It's looking surprisingly good though, especially as much as things have struggled so far this year in the MDR; I honestly wasn't expecting to see so much as a tropical depression out there the entire season.

http://tbacomic.deviantart.com/art/Danny-554653003
edit: figured I'd link my comic today as it's relevant in this case.

Yeah, I'm having war flashbacks to Karen. At this point I'm pretty much expecting today to be the peak of the season, sadly. (Not because I have any scientific reason, just because I don't want to get excited for another 2013)

[JtSmarts]

Live now on Facebook Live
Hey everyone! We finally have something to track. I am actually a little surprised NHC is so bullish on the strength, but I see the potential this one has. Going to do a Facebook Live update and talk a little bit about it if yall want to watch at around 5:30pm E Self plug yes, sorry

https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons

on twitter as well

https://twitter.com/wxmanchris

Great analysis of Danny's situation today, and your winter comments are music to my ears.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Starting to wrap nicely around the center and as I pointed out one of the intensity models was showing rapid intensefication chances over 1/3.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

[NDG]

I am shaking my head going how in the world will conditions improve almost overnight over the Caribbean after having record breaking windshear all season long so far. Mark my words, Danny will not survive tracking across the Caribbean if indeed it takes that track, better chances of surviving if it tracks north of the islands.



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