ATL: DANNY - Models

[gatorcane]

and here is your nice ridge (or not so nice for the Leewards) to the north, as seen on the 500MB chart. That should build westward in tandem with Danny:

[ronjon]

Look out Guadeloupe-Dominica islands per 18z GFS!

[Gustywind]

GFS getting stronger and heading west towards Leewards. 18Z has it at 991MB.

Notice how it is speeding up the timeline here. To move that quickly, that must be a strong ridge to the north.

Too close for comfort Gator! Hope it's pure fantasy Cycloneye should not enjoy that type of chart scenario...

[gatorcane]

Ut oh, GFS has it on a beeline moving WNW shooting the gap between Hispaniola and PR emerging along the NE coast of Hispaniola

[gatorcane]

along northern coast of Hispaniola at 204 hours:

[gatorcane]

Enters SE Bahamas (Turks and Caicos) by hour 228 heading WNW

[northjaxpro]

The model runs are consistently showing a consensus of a clusteted track either along or maybe just slightly north of the Caribbean Islands long range. It will be interesting to see how this will deviate one way or the other as time progresses.

[gatorcane]

SE Bahamas at 231 hours:

[Ivanhater]

Looks like SoFlo and into the Gulf, perhaps

[gatorcane]

Looks like SoFlo and into the Gulf, perhaps

Might go into Cuba though, interesting run for sure.

[Ivanhater]

Can't believe how small the GFS has this

[northjaxpro]

Looks like SoFlo and into the Gulf, perhaps

Too early to speculate as lots of variables of course are in play with Danny . It is going to be interesting monitoring this storm for sure.

[northjaxpro]

Looks like SoFlo and into the Gulf, perhaps

Might go into Cuba though, interesting run for sure.

Hispaniola as well.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like Hispaniola ate Danny for dinner!

[South Texas Storms]

Landfall near Tampa this run.

[perk]

:uarrow: Looks like Hispaniola ate Danny for dinner!

No it did not,Danny is still in tact at hour 276.The center looks to be between south Florida and Cuba.

[gatorcane]

Florida the bulls eye on this run. Hit from the south and system appears to be intensifying up until landfall

[BobHarlem]

Ok that 18Z GFS run is going to have some hibernating folks waking up to come back here.

[NCSTORMMAN]

That GFS run is scary to say the least.

[northjaxpro]

As always with tropical cyclones, Hispaniola down the road may be a huge obstacle with Danny's fate, depending on the exact track and other factors as well with the environment i.e. shear etc ...