Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands
are gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a
tropical depression will likely form within the next few days while
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 172347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015

..SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N31W TO 18N33W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE
AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEARLY COLLOCATED WITH A
MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 29W-36W. THE SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
503 AM AST TUE AUG 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK GRADIENTS
WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE. A WEAK TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RIDGE BACK FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
JUST NORTH OF 20 NORTH. THE RIDGE WILL SEE A SLIGHT WEAKNESS FROM
THE NORTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MID LEVELS ARE MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AT LOW LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY TODAY
FOLLOWED BY CONSIDERABLE DRYING. ANOTHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE PASSES
THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE MAY DEVELOP IN THE ATLANTIC IN THE NEXT 120
HOURS...BUT HOWEVER IT DEVELOPS IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST
MOISTURE OF THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS MOVED OVER THE EASTERN ONE THIRD OF PUERTO
RICO OVERNIGHT LEAVING MORE THAN ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN AT THE SAN
JUAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. OTHER SHOWERS WERE SEEN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND OVER THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS PASSED AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. TOPS OF THE
SHOWERS WERE RELATIVELY LOW...GENERALLY UNDER 20 KFT...AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT SEEN.

DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY BEGUN MOVING IN OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND WILL SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING.
SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BY EARLY EVENING ALL THE SHOWERS OVER LAND SHOULD
BE GONE. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A DRY SLOT AND THEN A MOIST BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MORE DRYING IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...EASTERN
COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO WILL LIKELY SEE MORE SHOWERS UNTIL
DRIER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE ISLAND ON SATURDAY. PATCHES OF
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA IN TRADE WIND
FLOW SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
HAS AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
THIS WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT GFS RUN DEGRADES IT INTO A
TROPICAL WAVE AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA.
REGARDLESS OF THE FORM IT TAKES THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE
BEST MOISTURE OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE
AREA ON ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. SOME PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
TIST...TISX AND TJSJ...TNCM...TKPK EARLY IN THE MORNING. DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJBQ/TJMZ AFT 18/17Z.
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BELOW 10 KTS THEN MAINLY FROM
THE E-ESE AT 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AFTER 18/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3 FEET
IN THE ATLANTIC AND BELOW 5 FEET IN THE CARIBBEAN...ALTHOUGH NEAR-
SHORE WATERS ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH COASTS WILL HAVE LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. SOME MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISKS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 79 / 20 20 20 20
STT 89 77 90 79 / 10 30 30 20

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
10N34W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT OVER A PERIOD OF 24
HOURS. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM THE SURFACE TO
850 MB SHOW THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE
MOISTURE THAT ALONG WITH A DIVERGENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN
31W AND 39W. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST ENGULF THE SYSTEM...THUS
HINDERING CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THIS
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

[cycloneye]

Thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands has continued to become better organized this morning.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and only a slight increase in organization would result in the
formation of a tropical depression later today while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Gustywind]

TD 4 forms . Islanders let's monitor TD4 as forecasts seems to bring this system towards the EC between the Windwards and the Leewards islands next week. Stay tuned.


000
WTNT34 KNHC 181447
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 18 2015

...FOURTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON DEVELOPS OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 36.5W
ABOUT 1665 MI...2675 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four
was located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 36.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A
motion toward the west is expected today, followed by a turn toward
the west-northwest later tonight or on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT24 KNHC 181447
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1500 UTC TUE AUG 18 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 36.5W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 36.5W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 35.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 11.0N 37.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 11.3N 39.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 11.6N 40.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 12.1N 41.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 13.2N 44.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 13.7N 47.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 14.0N 52.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS [color=#0000BF]105 KT.
[/color]
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 36.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 181448
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 18 2015

The low pressure system that has been moving westward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic the past few days has finally acquired
enough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical
cyclone. A 1232 UTC ASCAT-B overpass indicated the system has a
well-defined circulation, and there was also a large field of 30-kt
and greater wind vectors in the eastern semicircle. Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates are a consensus T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB, so
the initial intensity is set at 30 kt for this advisory. Upper-level
outflow is good to the south and fair to the north.

The initial motion estimate is 280/11 kt. The global and regional
models are in good agreement on the tropical cyclone moving
west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a deep-layer
subtropical ridge for the next 48-72 hours, accompanied by a
decrease in forward speed as the system approaches a weakness in
this ridge. After that time, the ridge is expected to build back in
as a trough to the north lifts out, forcing the cyclone to turn more
westward and accelerate through the remainder of the forecast
period. The official forecast track lies close to but a little
faster than the multi-model consensus TVCN due to the much slower
GFS model creating a slow bias in the consensus.

The overall atmospheric and oceanic environments surrounding the
cyclone appear conducive for slow but steady strengthening
throughout the forecast period. The only inhibiting factor will be
occasional brief intrusions of dry mid-level air associated with the
Saharan Air Layer that lies just to the north of the depression.
However, given the very low vertical wind shear of less than 5 kt,
the convective structure is expected to steadily increase in
organization, allowing the dry air intrusions to be mixed out. The
official intensity forecast closely follows the intensity consensus
model IVCN through 72 hours, and then leans closer to a blend of the
Decay-SHIPS and LGEM models at 96 and 120 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 10.6N 36.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 11.0N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 11.3N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 11.6N 40.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 12.1N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 13.2N 44.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 13.7N 47.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 14.0N 52.4W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Gustywind]

Depression Four Forms East of the Islands. Could become Hurricane Danny by Friday
18 Aug 2015
|
http://www.soualiganewsday.com/local/so ... riday.html

SINT MAARTEN – As of 11.00AM Tropical Depression (TD) #4 has formed 1665 miles to the East of the Windward Islands. TD#4 is moving west at 13 miles per hour with highest winds at 35 miles per hour. The system at this time does not pose a threat to Sint Maarten.

According to Crown Weather, “The area of low pressure that was Invest 96-L continues to organize and strengthen and is now considered a tropical depression. Satellite imagery indicates that TD 4 has a well-defined circulation and wind estimates from satellite data indicates there are 35 mph winds occurring with this system.

All indications are, “…that the depression will continue to track on a general west to west-northwest track over the next several days. While this system tracks westward, it is expected to strengthen as the overall environmental conditions are favourable for slow and steady strengthening throughout this week right into this weekend.

“The only inhibiting factor will be dry air that will try to pulled into the circulation of this system. With that said, given the otherwise favourable environment, it is extremely likely that TD 4 will strengthen into Tropical Storm Danny as soon as tonightand there is the possibility that it could become a hurricane by about Friday.

“From there, there is the possibility that TD 4/Danny will encounter increasingly unfavorable conditions as it gets near the Lesser Antilles by Monday of next week. With that said, everyone across the central Lesser Antilles, especially the islands of Antigua, Guadeloupe, Dominica and Martinique, should be aware that this system could be at least a moderate to strong tropical storm and very possibly a hurricane when it moves through on Monday intoTuesday of next week.

“Once this system enters the eastern Caribbean, the environment is still expected to become increasingly more unfavorable with this tropical cyclone likely weakening as it passes to the south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.”

SOUALIGA NEWSDAY REPORT

[cycloneye]

Here is the 18z model guidance that shows a possible Eastern Caribbean landfall of DANNY.Stay tuned to get the latest.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
343 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY MID-LEVELS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS RIDGE PATTERN STRENGTHENS
FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN REGION.
AS A RESULT...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE
WORK WEEK...LIMITING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS PREVAILED OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY...LIMITING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WEST INTERIOR AND WEST PUERTO RICO...BUT MOST OF THEM
HAVE BEEN SHORT-LIVED. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH MINIMAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

MOISTURE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...AS SAHARAN
DUST WILL REACH THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS.

NEXT WEEK...RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR LOCATED
MORE THAN 1600 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE PATH OF THE
CYCLONE...THEREFORE IMPACTS REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY
REACH THE LOCAL REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE...WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJBQ THRU 21Z.
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BELOW 10 KTS THEN MAINLY
FROM THE E-ESE AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH SEAS OF
2 TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SEAS IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED WITHIN
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 79 90 / 20 20 20 20
STT 77 90 79 91 / 30 30 20 20

[Gustywind]

Here is the 18z model guidance that shows a possible Eastern Caribbean landfall of DANNY.Stay tuned to get the latest.

Cycloneye, i can't see that image . Could you post another one please ?

[cycloneye]

There are some problems posting images at my end I guess so here is the link to Levi Cowan place of models.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

[Gustywind]

There are some problems posting images at my end I guess so here is the link to Levi Cowan place of models.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

Thanks to you

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2015

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE
2015 ATLANTIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 37.5W
ABOUT 1595 MI...2565 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[cycloneye]

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT

WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
5:47 PM ECT TUE, AUG 18, 2015

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES IS FOLLOWING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC.THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AND AN ALERT MAY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME POSES NO THREAT TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 37.5 WEST. DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND DANNY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).

FORECASTER KEITHLEY MEADE

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 190843
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 AM AST WED AUG 19 2015

...DANNY FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 40.2W
ABOUT 1445 MI...2325 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danny was
located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 40.2 West. Danny is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a track to
the west-northwest is expected during the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Danny could become a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 190958
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
558 AM AST WED AUG 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY MID-LEVELS AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE PATTERN
STRENGTHENS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN REGION. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BY THURSDAY MOVING OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS MOVED OVER THE NORTHEAST...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE DISTURBANCE
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE OF SURFACE MOISTURE REACHED THE LOCAL AREA
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN
THE MORNING. FOR TODAY...MODEL GUIDANCES CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY
AIR WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...THESE SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHALLOW AND BRIEF ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND
THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS
AND SURFACE MOISTURE WILL OVERCOME THE EFFECT OF THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLDS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER EASTERN PR AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THEN...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER
SECTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN PR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH DUST PARTICLES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE ISLANDS BY THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY TO RESULT IN HAZY SKIES.
ALSO...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA BY
FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS A RESULT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND TSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE DURING THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
WAVE.

TROPICAL STORM DANNY. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT DANNY...AT 5 AM AST IT WAS LOCATED ABOUT
1445 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND WAS MOVING WESTWARD AT
NEAR 14 MPH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REFER TO THE TCPAT4
PRODUCE BY NHC.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA MAY GENERATE BRIEF MVFR DUE TO CIGS AT TNCM
AND TKPK TIL 19/1400. CONDS THERE DRYING AFTERWARD. VFR ELSEWHERE
THROUGH 20/02Z EXCEPT IN WRN PR WHERE DEVLPG SHRA/TSRA AFT 19/16Z
WILL BRING MTN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR DUE TO
CIGS/VIS...MAINLY TO TJMZ AND BRIEFLY TO TJBQ. SFC WINDS ELY 10 TO
15 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. WINDS BTWN FL050-100 ESE 10 TO 20
KT. MAX WIND BLO FL540 20 KT NR FL040.


&&

.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS OF LESS THAN 4 FT AND EAST
WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR SHORE. TRANQUIL MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 91 77 / 20 20 20 20
STT 89 78 90 79 / 20 20 20 40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/27

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT

WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
11:16 AM ECT WED, AUG 19, 2015

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

AT 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 41.1 WEST OR 1385 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND DANNY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM) FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK, DANNY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A PATH THAT WILL BRING IT IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS EARLY MONDAY. BASED ON LATEST ADVISORY, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND PATH OF DANNY, AS A RESULT RESIDENTS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA, THE REST OF THE LEEWARDS AND BVI ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO CONTINUE PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO FUTURE ADVISORIES.

REPEATING THE 11AM POSITION

LOCATION...11.2N 41.1W ABOUT 1385 MI...2235 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT 5PM TODAY

CLICK HERE FOR MORE INFORMATION

FORECASTER LENARD JOSIAH