Expert forecasts for 2015 N Atlantic Hurricane Season

[cycloneye]

CSU will release their July update on Wednesday.

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach · 3m3 minutes ago
CSU seasonal forecast update will be released tomorrow, July 1st around 11am EDT.

[cycloneye]

CSU July forecast is up and they have the same numbers as the June one *8/3/1.

[TheStormExpert]

The Weather Channel(WSI) revised their season outlook today from 9/5/1 to 10/4/1.

[wxman57]

Klotzbach's August update was released. Number of hurricanes reduced to 2 (8/2/1).

[TheStormExpert]

Makes sense since we can't even get a Tropical Depression to form.

[cycloneye]

5/2/1 for rest of season says CSU.Total ACE is 35.Yikes. Let's jump to 2016.

[TheStormExpert]

5/2/1 for rest of season says CSU.Total ACE is 35.Yikes. Let's jump to 2016.

Should've just went 5/2/0, but I agree cycloneye I'm ready for this already dreadful season to be over!

[drezee]

5/2/1 for rest of season says CSU.Total ACE is 35.Yikes. Let's jump to 2016.

I must agree...that post El Nino bounce back year ala 98. 95L would have a chance if it were just 40 miles east...

[cycloneye]

JB also released his August forecast.

[TheStormExpert]

All in all JB is not changing his thoughts and is expecting the same as he said back in spring.

[Steve]

:uarrow: All in all JB is not changing his thoughts and is expecting the same as he said back in spring.

It looks like he has moved anticipated ACE areas further north into New England/Sothern Canada where previously it was more to maybe Mid-Atlantic. He had been hinting that he was going to do that. Regarding his forecast, that could be significant since major population centers are within the new 50% and 75% zones.

Should've just went 5/2/0, but I agree cycloneye I'm ready for this already dreadful season to be over!

I'm going to go ahead and say that you aren't ready for this already dreadful season to be over since you have posted 52 times since Saturday morning. It looks to me like you're ready to get this one started.

[wxman57]

Should've just went 5/2/0, but I agree cycloneye I'm ready for this already dreadful season to be over!

Careful with your comments ("dreadful season") as most view a lack of hurricane impacts as a good thing.

[cycloneye]

NOAA on Thursday.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 3m3 minutes ago
FYI @NOAA is going to release a seasonal #hurricane forecast update tomorrow (8/6) at 11a EDT

[cycloneye]

TSR is up with 11/4/1.Here is the abstract.

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), which provides real-time mapping and prediction of tropical cyclone windfields worldwide, is pleased to announce the release of their August forecast update for North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2015.

Based on current and projected climate signals, North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity in 2015 is forecast to be about 55% below the long-term (1950-2014) norm and about 60% below the recent 2005-2014 10-year norm.

TSR forecasts:
•An ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) value of 44. The long-term and recent 2005-2014 norm values are 102 and 113 respectively.
•A 72% likelihood that activity will be in the bottom one-third of years historically, a 25% likelihood it will be in the middle one-third of years historically and only a 3% chance it will be in the top one-third of years historically.
•One intense hurricane, 4 hurricanes and 11 tropical storms. The long-term norms are 3, 6 and 11 respectively.

Should the TSR forecast for 2015 verify it would mean that the ACE total for 2013-2015 was easily the lowest 3-year total since 1992-1994 and it would imply that the active phase of Atlantic hurricane activity which began in 1995 has likely ended. However, it should be stressed that uncertainties remain for the 2015 hurricane season.

[Stormcenter]

Do I have to say this again, it only takes ONE really bad storm to make it a bad season for someone. IMO

[Hammy]

Should the TSR forecast for 2015 verify it would mean that the ACE total for 2013-2015 was easily the lowest 3-year total since 1992-1994 and it would imply that the active phase of Atlantic hurricane activity which began in 1995 has likely ended. However, it should be stressed that uncertainties remain for the 2015 hurricane season.

I did want to give my opinion on this a bit--2013 was essentially a fluke. I think e would need probably 4-5 years to determine if the active cycle has ended, considering these are 30-40 year cycles. Most active cycles have had drops in activity, which as a few have pointed out on here, the current one hasn't, which is why we haven't had a lower ACE period since 1992-94. The other item which makes it harder to tell is that we are having two consecutive hurricane seasons affected by El Nino, which I believe hasn't happened since 1986-87, and thus would be below normal anyway. 1997 for instance, clearly in the heart of an active cycle, was only 40 and this El Nino may rival that one. 2016-17 would be the point at which (if we continue to have reduced activity) we would be able to tell if the active period is winding down.

[Yellow Evan]

Do I have to say this again, it only takes ONE really bad storm to make it a bad season for someone. IMO

I think most people know that.

However, one amazing storm in my view as a fan does not make for an interesting season to track.

[cycloneye]

Below average is what NOAA has in the August update.

[CrazyC83]

Agreed with all the analyses. I think Cape Verde is as good as dead in 2015, I'd be shocked if more than 1 or 2 storms come from tropical waves, and a season with 0 from the deep tropics is not out of the question (last time was 1962?).

That said, the US and other land areas should still be vigilant. Most of the systems this year will be developing close to land...and some do become landfalling hurricanes.

[TheStormExpert]

CSU released their first Two Week Outlook for the peak of the season today.

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach
Atlantic two-week forecast issued:

http://col.st/R7y5f

Below-avg. predicted, but tough call with TD 4 likely to generate significant ACE.