ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT

WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
5:47 PM ECT TUE, AUG 18, 2015

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES IS FOLLOWING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC.THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AND AN ALERT MAY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. ...

What kind of alert could they be looking to issue so soon for a system so far away? Then again, I guess memories of Luis in 1995 are still fresh in their minds. The track, with the ominous bend back to the west, currently forecast by the NHC is certainly reminiscent of that taken by Luis.

Right Abajan! I don't know too... that's why i post that; to emphasize on this message from Antigua and Barbuda Meteorogical Services.
Let's hope that Danny will not have any ressemblance with Luis 1995 especially in terms of path and thus intensity! Anyway, we must be on our guard during the next couple of days.

[dexterlabio]

Wow. It found the right spot and the right timing and now it's got everyone a surprise. Personally I don't find it peculiar that a potent hurricane might form even with a strong Nino going on. Though this might be the one storm that will spell out the entire year in the Atlantic so better be vigilant.

[Ivanhater]

I agree MGC....I really am curious why some of the models like Euro and GFS make this so tiny on their runs ..odd

I agree Ivan even as it is in the developing stages the size is by no means small. Great to see you on and posting Ivan, miss all your post from years passed.

Good to see you back too...glad we have something to post about!

[northjaxpro]

Danny is rapidly intensifying. It has dropped 8 mb in barometric pressure inthe past 6 hours. Best Track at 3 p.m. had Danny at 1008 mb when initially upgraded to TS status. Now, it is at 1000 mb and falling. At this rate, Danny could become a hurricane when we get up tomorrow morning.

[PTrackerLA]

The most concerning things I'm seeing so far is Danny quickly outperforming the models intensity wise and no real "recurve window" shown in any of the globals. It has been several years since we've seen a dominating High in the Atlantic like this without the semi-persistent East Coast trough in place. Interesting times ahead but first let's focus on the islands.

[gatorcane]

Danny is rapidly intensifying. It has dropped 8 mb in barometric pressure inthe past 6 hours. Best Track at 3 p.m. had Danny at 1008 mb when initially upgraded to TS status. Now, it is at 1000 mb and falling. At this rate, Danny could become a hurricane when we get up tomorrow morning.

Indeed and I wonder if it may start gaining some latitude if it ends up deeper than expected (which would allow it to be influenced more by steering at the 500MB lever) which could have HUGE implications downstream if it means it heading north and not south or over the big Caribbean islands.

[SFLcane]

Iam impressed really with the HWRF. Danny appears to be rapidly intensifying winds up to 50 mph on next adv. Will see if it continues

[JonathanBelles]

New Post:

http://jonathanbelles.com/2015/08/18/da ... next-week/

[Gustywind]

Increasing numbers for DANNY" boom"


DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
18/2345 UTC 11.0N 38.3W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
18/1745 UTC 11.1N 37.0W T2.0/2.0 04L
18/1145 UTC 10.2N 35.9W T2.0/2.0 96L
18/0545 UTC 9.5N 34.4W T1.5/1.5 96L
18/0000 UTC 9.3N 33.2W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/1745 UTC 9.8N 32.8W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/1145 UTC 9.6N 31.0W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/0545 UTC 9.8N 29.9W T1.0/1.0 96L

[Ntxw]

Little early for this but why not, ADT

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1011.8mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.9 2.9

Center Temp : -29.6C Cloud Region Temp : -52.4C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.71 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 37km
- Environmental MSLP : 1015mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 44.5 degrees

[KatDaddy]

Looking better this evening and will be watching the models. A long way of being any concern for the GOM but at least something to track for now.

[gatorcane]

saved loop:

[TheStormExpert]

New recently released Video Discussion Up on Tropical Tidbits from Levi Cowan.

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits
I've posted a new video update (Tuesday evening) on Tropical Storm Danny: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... hurricane/ …

[Hammy]

Intensity seems to be outpacing the models a bit at the moment, and it's already exceeded the maximum I assumed it could reach intensity-wise.

[gatorcane]

New recently released Video Discussion Up on Tropical Tidbits from Levi Cowan.

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits
I've posted a new video update (Tuesday evening) on Tropical Storm Danny: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... hurricane/ …

Good video and suggests folks in the islands start thinking about preparations but it is impossible to predict who would get impacted.

[northjaxpro]

Seeing some deep red convective tops on imagery just above in that loop right around the circulation center. If this continues, we may begin seeing the early stages of an eyewall forming overnight. Danny really intensifying impressively this evening.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Remember, stronger does not always mean more poleward. The storm track depends on the exact steering regime. In this case, with a banana-shaped mid-level ridge to the cyclone's north, I wouldn't bank on anything outside west-northwest over the next few days regardless of intensity.

[Gustywind]

Up to 45kts

AL, 04, 2015081900, , BEST, 0, 111N, 383W, 45, 1000, TS

Cycloneye, do you have the link related to the best track? thanks

[Yellow Evan]

May be nearing 50 knts based on ASCAT data.

[Hammy]

May be nearing 50 knts based on ASCAT data.

If that's the case than it might not be unreasonable to see a hurricane by the end of tomorrow.