ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[floridasun78]

i bet storm2k getting server ready for busy traffic next few days

[ozonepete]

May be nearing 50 knts based on ASCAT data.

If that's the case than it might not be unreasonable to see a hurricane by the end of tomorrow.

Hey there Hammy!

Nope not unreasonable at all. Here is a perfect example of a TC that comes along in a climatologically unfavorable year and still hits all the right spots in its path. Outside of the dry Saharan air to its north, which it's blocking out so far, it has no big negatives for at least the next few days. We have to hope the shear becomes strong enough to hurt it before it gets to the islands, but we're still too far out to know how that will play out...

[NDG]

I say more like Thursday morning for it to become a hurricane, it may start getting some dry air intrusion from time to time slowing down some of its strengthening.

[gatorcane]

Here is a wide-view WV loop. Look how all those pesky ULLs that been plaguing the SW Atlantic and Caribbean causing all the shear for much of the hurricane season are clearing out. The one near Jamaica is heading west and the two at the top of the screen are moving East. From a shear perspective, Danny might be seeing some favorable upper-level winds for a lot of his life.

[floridasun78]

are going get more busyer and when storm was going Hawaii few week ago?

[tolakram]

Up to 45kts

AL, 04, 2015081900, , BEST, 0, 111N, 383W, 45, 1000, TS

Cycloneye, do you have the link related to the best track? thanks

Hi Gusty

FTP Site: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

file is: bal042015.dat

[Gustywind]

Up to 45kts

AL, 04, 2015081900, , BEST, 0, 111N, 383W, 45, 1000, TS

Cycloneye, do you have the link related to the best track? thanks

Hi Gusty

FTP Site: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

file is: bal042015.dat

Ok thanks to you my friend

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 190245
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2015

...DANNY STRENGTHENING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 38.8W
ABOUT 1505 MI...2420 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danny was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 38.8 West. Danny is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, and Danny is expected to become a hurricane by
Thursday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center. A few hours ago, PIRATA buoy 41026 reported
sustained winds of 48 mph (78 km/h) as the center of Danny passed
just to the south.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Hammy]

Forecast peak bumped up to 105mph within four days.

[gatorcane]

[gatorcane]

interesting snippet from the 11pm EST disco:

"There are two alternative possibilities for this forecast.
The first is that rapid intensification occurs in the next 24 hours
before dry air entrains into Danny's core. The second is that
enough dry air starts entraining during the next 24 hours to cause a
slower rate of development than currently forecast."

[tatertawt24]

^That's interesting they never mentioned weakening as a possibility.

[CrazyC83]

I'd have gone with 50 kt based on the low resolution of the widespread ASCAT data and buoy data. Even a case could be made for 55 kt.

[gatorcane]

Also this snippet from the 11pm EST discussion was interesting:

"The ASCAT
data also showed that the storm was a little larger than previously
thought."

The 12Z ECMWF run was showing a small system, if it now initializes a larger system, very curious what the 00Z run coming up later tonight will do

[HurricaneRyan]

It's looking pretty good so far. Definitely hurricane potential.

Imagine if this ends up being a big storm.

[CaliforniaResident]

It's looking pretty good so far. Definitely hurricane potential.

Imagine if this ends up being a big storm.

It looks like it's almost guaranteed to be a hurricane at one point (ruining the chances of the first recorded hurricane free season in the Atlantic in the Satellite era) but is there any chance of it maintaining hurricane status while making landfall somewhere? This is WAY out on a limb but there any chance of this surprising everyone and becoming another "Andrew"?

[BobHarlem]

It's looking pretty good so far. Definitely hurricane potential.

Imagine if this ends up being a big storm.

It looks like it's almost guaranteed to be a hurricane at one point (ruining the chances of the first recorded hurricane free season in the Atlantic in the Satellite era) but is there any chance of it maintaining hurricane status while making landfall somewhere? This is WAY out on a limb but there any chance of this surprising everyone and becoming another "Andrew"?

Almost no chance, this thing is likely to hit more hostile conditions on Sunday, and then again when it enters or nears the Caribbean. Usually the first Cape Verde storm gets everyone on point, and it falls apart, then another sneaks up and does a bit more. (Or in the last several years, just never gets its act together). Although one difference with Danny is it is already getting its act together, if it can keep it all the way to the Caribbean really is the larger question. If it slams near or into Hispaniola like a few models suggest it's pretty much over as a major event (away from the Caribbean that is)

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[NDG]

[tolakram]

Don't forget the S2K if you are making a prediction please. You can put it in your signature if desired. Thanks.

[ozonepete]

It's looking pretty good so far. Definitely hurricane potential.

Imagine if this ends up being a big storm.

It looks like it's almost guaranteed to be a hurricane at one point (ruining the chances of the first recorded hurricane free season in the Atlantic in the Satellite era) but is there any chance of it maintaining hurricane status while making landfall somewhere? This is WAY out on a limb but there any chance of this surprising everyone and becoming another "Andrew"?

Almost no chance, this thing is likely to hit more hostile conditions on Sunday, and then again when it enters or nears the Caribbean. Usually the first Cape Verde storm gets everyone on point, and it falls apart, then another sneaks up and does a bit more. (Or in the last several years, just never gets its act together). Although one difference with Danny is it is already getting its act together, if it can keep it all the way to the Caribbean really is the larger question. If it slams near or into Hispaniola like a few models suggest it's pretty much over as a major event (away from the Caribbean that is)

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Be careful. Hurricane Hazel in 1954, in addition to many others, have "slammed into" Hispaniola, gotten wiped down to almost nothing by its mountains, and then regenerated into truly formidable Hurricanes. Hazel crossed Haiti from south to north in October 1954 and weakened to barely hurricane strength and then hit the North/South Carolina border as a monster cat 4. Pretty much nothing is guaranteed nor almost certain in tropical cyclone forecasting and we want everyone to remember that.