WPAC: KILO - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

12Z EC is trending much stronger and even farther east

[Alyono]

full ECMWF has a cat 2 striking the Big Island. Won't be able to see this on tropical tidbits as they only have 24 hour plots. It gets slung around the high volcanoes. Actually makes landfall south of Hilo

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS and Euro are almost similar track wise. Just slight differences on when 93c gets picked up.

[Kingarabian]

Alyono models seem to be trending east now. You think Hawaii lucks out again?

[Alyono]

not this time. The models seem to be indicating development too far east

[Kingarabian]

not this time. The models seem to be indicating development too far east

But it looks like they're developing it sooner and taking it to the big island. I'm thinking it could miss to the east of the Big Island now.

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[Kingarabian]

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. An elongated area of low pressure is centered about 900 miles to the south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. This area has been nearly stationary over the the past 12 hours. Environmental conditions appear to support some slow development in this area during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 60 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday afternoon

18z models:

HWRF/GFDL/CMC have 93C developing into a hurricane and missing Hawaii safely to the east of the big island.

GFS and GFS ensembles are west and have a landfall anywhere between Oahu/Maui and the big island.

[Alyono]

CPHC increased development chances further

[Kingarabian]

CPHC increased development chances further

Yeah I posted it above .

Alyono, it seems like there are two competing areas of low pressures as depicted by the models. Do you think the track is dependent on which low wins?

[Alyono]

CPHC increased development chances further

Yeah I posted it above .

Alyono, it seems like there are two competing areas of low pressures as depicted by the models. Do you think the track is dependent on which low wins?

looks on satellite imagery that it will form farther west. This is a classic WPAC setup

[Kingarabian]

CPHC increased development chances further

Yeah I posted it above .

Alyono, it seems like there are two competing areas of low pressures as depicted by the models. Do you think the track is dependent on which low wins?

looks on satellite imagery that it will form farther west. This is a classic WPAC setup

Funny how there's no recon planned yet considering that it's supposed to develop by tomorrow.

Code: Select all

000
NOUS42 KNHC 181338
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT TUE 18 AUGUST 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z AUGUST 2015
         TCPOD NUMBER.....15-084

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP


[Yellow Evan]

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. An elongated area of low pressure is centered about 900 miles to the south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. This area has been nearly stationary over the the past 12 hours. Environmental conditions appear to support some slow development in this area during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 60 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday afternoon

18z models:

HWRF/GFDL/CMC have 93C developing into a hurricane and missing Hawaii safely to the east of the big island.

GFS and GFS ensembles are west and have a landfall anywhere between Oahu/Maui and the big island.

Worth nothing that the HWRF and GFDL had Ana missing well to the east as well.

I agree it's gonna coming down to where the center forms.

[Kingarabian]

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. An elongated area of low pressure is centered about 900 miles to the south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. This area has been nearly stationary over the the past 12 hours. Environmental conditions appear to support some slow development in this area during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 60 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday afternoon

18z models:

HWRF/GFDL/CMC have 93C developing into a hurricane and missing Hawaii safely to the east of the big island.

GFS and GFS ensembles are west and have a landfall anywhere between Oahu/Maui and the big island.

Worth nothing that the HWRF and GFDL had Ana missing well to the east as well.

I agree it's gonna coming down to where the center forms.

Really? Was this before it developed? I recall the HWRF and GFDL showing landfalls if I remember correctly...

So far the GFDL has done a rather good job with Guillermo and Hilda in its track predictions.

[Yellow Evan]

Worth nothing that the HWRF and GFDL had Ana missing well to the east as well.

I agree it's gonna coming down to where the center forms.

Really? Was this before it developed? I recall the HWRF and GFDL showing landfalls if I remember correctly...

So far the GFDL has done a rather good job with Guillermo and Hilda in its track predictions.

They consistently were too far east with Ana.

Here's the moment I was thinking off (pulled right from Ana's thread shorty after designation).

Note the declaimer, I'm firmly in the camp it will miss Hawaii for now. The GFDL and HWRF call for big time intensification, which appears likely, and move it NW rather than WNW. Hawaii should get some effects, but the core seems like it will stay offshore.

[Kingarabian]

Yeah I just went back and checked. Interesting to see what the 00z models will show.

[CrazyC83]

I'm sure Hawaii is going to be sweating bullets for the next week or so...next name is Kilo?

[srainhoutx]

Looks like the 53rd will head this way tomorrow. I arrived in Honolulu early this afternoon for a week.

[Kingarabian]

I'm sure Hawaii is going to be sweating bullets for the next week or so...next name is Kilo?

Yes, and yes. Hopefully the trough is delayed like Ana last year.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the 53rd will head this way tomorrow. I arrived in Honolulu early this afternoon for a week.

Nothing on the NHC recon page. I wonder why?