ATL: DANNY - Models

[TropicalJon]

336 hour run?? The Farmers Almanac forecast has as much credibility[/quote]

Speaking of the Farmers Almanac....the 2015 Almanac says " A Hurricane threathens Florida Aug 24-27".....the timing is about right........

[AJC3]

Any models anyone? Any troughs that could turn a storm?

Not quite following you. You're asking about the presence of trough along the east coast in the "near term" when the storm is about 10 days away, give or take, from any potential impact on areas near the SE U.S.

In any event, in the near term, a cutoff deep layer low is forming between the southeast U.S. and Bermuda and is expected to linger throughout the week, as a strong mid level ridge builds across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico.

[WPBWeather]

Any models anyone? Any troughs that could turn a storm?

Not quite following you. You're asking about the presence of trough along the east coast in the "near term" when the storm is about 10 days away, give or take, from any potential impact on areas near the SE U.S.

In any event, in the near term, a cutoff deep layer low is forming between the southeast U.S. and Bermuda and is expected to linger throughout the week, as a strong mid level ridge builds across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico.

Thought I was being clear, but guess not. Someone opined that a deep trough would be present to turn any storm away from the east coast. And, as you state, if there is a trough, it will be short lived.

Thank you for posting some evidence to support too!

[AJC3]

Thought I was being clear, but guess not. Someone opined that a deep trough would be present to turn any storm away from the east coast. And, as you state, if there is a trough, it will be short lived.

Thank you for posting some evidence to support too!

No worries. Right now, it looks like that cutoff will be lifting out to the north by this weekend, with a ridge building back in behind it. As you well know, a lot can change that far out, but the forecast synoptic pattern in the long range looks interesting enough to keep everyone watching, for sure.

[blp]

00z Euro Ensembles



12z

[Hurricaneman]

The Euro ensembles do put Florida in the game and if for some reason Danny goes north of Hispaniola this could be more than we bargained for but as we know things will change and we wont truely know what the final track is going to be and pair that with the 18zGFS Florida or even the Gulf and East coasts can't take their eye off this

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS stronger, better initialization than the 18z GFS through 30 hrs.

[tolakram]

Where are you getting the full rez images, I can't find them on the site.

[Kingarabian]

Where are you getting the full rez images, I can't find them on the site.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/


Or do you mean the screen size? Just click on image that is loaded.

[SFLcane]

00z GFS stronger, better initialization than the 18z GFS through 30 hrs.

Oh wow..

[tolakram]

Where are you getting the full rez images, I can't find them on the site.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/


Or do you mean the screen size? Just click on image that is loaded.

Thanks. His webpage needs work, that is not reachable starting at the home page, I get the standard rez. Crazy.

Edit: I see, MSLP is normal rez, Surface Pressure map is high rez.

[tolakram]

978MB

[PTrackerLA]

Really good initialization this run, definitely intensifying as it nears the Leewards...

BTW select "Surface Pressure and 10mb Wind" to see full res GFS images on Tropicaltidbits

[tolakram]

Really good initialization this run, definitely intensifying as it nears the Leewards...

BTW select "Surface Pressure and 10mb Wind" to see full res GFS images on Tropicaltidbits

Thanks, I figured that out finally. I thought I was going crazy.

Peaks at 976MB 114 hours.

120 hours

[CrazyC83]

How does this setup compare to Hurricane Dean in 2007? That seems the most similar setup from my naked eye.

[tolakram]

[boca]

Didn't Dean slam into the Yucatan and was moving due west.

[Hurricaneman]

This setup on the GFS is probably close to my worst case scenario I wrote in the discussion thread as it may miss the big islands to the north but still cause some damage to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[tolakram]

[Bocadude85]

Gatorcane is going to find this run very interesting.