ATL: DANNY - Models

[hurricaneCW]

Considering the drought I'm sure many hope it doesn't miss to the north around the islands as long as it's not a very strong storm.

[northjaxpro]

Differences with the EURO and GFS. The GFS long range up to 10 days is indicating an U.S. East Coast trough apparently deep enough to pull Danny away from the Bahamas and S.E. U.S. coast. GFS also keeps Danny a rather strong tropical cyclone. However, EURO keeps a significant ridge building into the SW Atlantic basin, but has Danny weakening long range(probably shear).

Still a long way out, and many flip flops and changes with the models are sure to come.

[perk]

06z GFS shifted back west and has a strong system stalling just east of the Bahamas before turning north. The GFS tends to break down ridges in long range. That stall is concerning because the next few runs may show it back into Florida

Yeah the 6oz was a shift back to the west.

[Dean4Storms]

I wouldn't put much stock in the GFS beyond 5 days, it has struggled with the mid and upper latitude pattern all Summer with the SOI crash and resulting EL Nino.

[SouthDadeFish]

I just want to point out that speculation over track when/if Danny is near the Bahamas is speculating over a 9 day forecast in which the mid-latitudes are being highly affected by the recurving typhoons in the Western Pacific. Expect large changes from run to run.

[PTrackerLA]

Scary hurricane in the long range per 06z GFS. Like SouthDadeFish said the recurve is not forecast until 10-12 days from now! I wouldn't feel safe anywhere in the CONUS and especially the islands given the wild swings we'll likely see in the models.

[northjaxpro]

As always with these tropical cyclones, much is going to depend on a variety of variables and how the evolution of the timing of first how fast the cyclone is with its fprward motion, and of course the environment surrounding it. Too many factors are in play for sure, that is why my general rule of thumb is not to look past 7 days with the models. But, I certainly understand other pros and weather observers looking out 10 days to try to pick up on trends. But, within good reason, I like to just look at 5-7 day period.

[tolakram]

The HWRF now has what looks like a reasonable solution, although it may be too far north. Peak is a low end cat1.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2015081900-danny04l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[gatorcane]

The HWRF now has what looks like a reasonable solution, although it may be too far north. Peak is a low end cat1.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2015081900-danny04l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Maybe not too far north. The consistent UKMET continues to show the system passing the NE Leewards to the NE because it is delaying the building of the ridge more than some of the other models. Actually now several models take it just North of the Leewards following the UKMET solution (second image). I was never sold on a Caribbean runner on this system.

[Stormcenter]

I wouldn't bet a penny on ANY model's run 5 days out and here we are talking about 10-12 days out. IMO

[BobHarlem]

Scary hurricane in the long range per 06z GFS. Like SouthDadeFish said the recurve is not forecast until 10-12 days from now! I wouldn't feel safe anywhere in the CONUS and especially the islands given the wild swings we'll likely see in the models.

True, but the trend for even 4-5 days out now has the chance of it missing to the north of the Leewards going up (most of the spaghetti style and GFS, and UKMET ), which is a good sign that trend toward a recurve being more probable than not (not that it is now, but its going that way, the next several model runs will help). The Euro is forecasting a weaker and sheared system, so that's a good sign there also. The euro solution would at least give the islands some rain.

Still plenty of days to watch them probably flip flop a bit, but at least the trends are going in the right direction (Although its still in very uncertain territory). Based on the Euro/GFS solutions I don't see Danny bucking the old climatological rule of thumb "weaker goes west, strong turns north" for the cape verde waves.

[gatorcane]

06Z NAVGEM, 180 hours heading WNW:

[tolakram]

I wouldn't bet a penny on ANY model's run 5 days out and here we are talking about 10-12 days out. IMO

Of course not, I think most here know that and if they don't I think about every 5th post someone says this.

[Stormcenter]

Okay I'm guilty.

I wouldn't bet a penny on ANY model's run 5 days out and here we are talking about 10-12 days out. IMO

Of course not, I think most here know that and if they don't I think about every 5th post someone says this.

[tolakram]

Okay I'm guilty.

I wouldn't bet a penny on ANY model's run 5 days out and here we are talking about 10-12 days out. IMO

Of course not, I think most here know that and if they don't I think about every 5th post someone says this.

It's ok, hopefully I didn't sounds angry.

[SFLcane]

Door wide open there on the UKMET though for recurve.

[Frank2]

GFS picks up on the recurve, too:

http://www.weatherstreet.com/states/gfs ... recast.htm

[gatorcane]

Tight consensus for Northern Leewards or just north of, latest 12Z guidance. Intensity guidance included:

[alienstorm]

These models will change don't pay to much attention to beyond five days. Anything else is entertainment purposes....

[SFLcane]

Intensity guidance trending down