ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[gatorcane]

I don't see decoupling at all. Yes dry air is being ingested at the moment but decoupling?

Check out this loop:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[NCSTORMMAN]

Danny might be on life support circulation appears to be decoupling. Nothing amazes me in though from this basin anymore. Can't even get a moderate cane. Rough battle ahead.

Yeah it looks to be dying. I will eat my own words on prediction of hurricane by the end of today. I can not believe how quickly this thing is dying. Only because of dry air too which is strange. The Atlantic is a graveyard the past few seasons and doesn't look to be changing and only getting worse for storms. That is a good thing but the southeast does rely on a few lower end storms for rain fall.

[gatorcane]

Danny is not dying just because a few hours of SAT loop shows some dry air being ingested!

Look at the overall long-term trend. If it doesn't build convection in the next 12-24 hours and center becomes even more exosed then yeah, maybe it is starting to die.

[NCSTORMMAN]

:uarrow: lol Danny is not dying just because a few hours of SAT loop shows some dry air being ingested!

lol it sure does look to be weakening and it is only going to encounter more dry air. I could be wrong and I was wrong about having a hurricane by the end of today. You guys know more than me.

[gatorcane]

NHC still forecasting a hurricane as of latest 11AM EST advisory. Snippet:

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Danny
could become a hurricane by Friday.

Full advisory in the Danny advisories thread.

[Gustywind]

LATEST: Tropical Storm Danny continues its track towards Islands and could become a Hurricane on Thursday
19 Aug 2015
Published in Soualiga News Today

http://www.soualiganewsday.com/local/so ... rsday.html

SINT MAARTEN – Tropical Storm (TS) Danny at 5.00AM on Wednesday morning, August 19 was located 1400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Danny is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday and a category 2 system on Sunday with sustained wind speeds of 105 miles per hour. At this time TS Danny does not pose any threat to land.

TS Danny continues to move west at 14 miles per hour. There has been no change in speed since 11.00PM Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds remain at 50 miles per hour.

Crown Weather reports Wednesday morning that: “The environment around and along the forecast track of Danny is expected to be favorable for strengthening. Wind shear around Danny is expected to be in the 5 to 15 mph range throughout the rest of this week right through this weekend. In addition, ocean water temperatures along the forecast path of Danny are expected to be in the 27 to 28°C (81 to 82°F) range throughout the rest of this week into this weekend.

“At this point, only dry air will be the unfavorable factor that prevents Danny from rapidly intensifying. Most of the intensity model guidance members forecast strengthening to a hurricane byThursday with a few intensity model guidance members forecasting Danny to peak at 100-110 mph on Saturday. Beyond Saturday, these intensity models forecast weakening as Danny approaches the Leeward Islands; however, there is the distinct possibility that Danny could still impact the Leeward Islands as a hurricane fromMonday intoTuesday. Bottom line is that the greatest chance for significant strengthening with Danny will be over the next 3 to 4 days.

“Many of the track model guidance members have shifted Danny’s forecast track to the north a little. A ridge of high pressure is expected to keep Danny on a general west to west-northwest track over the next several days. As Danny approaches the Lesser Antilles late this weekend into early next week, questions arise on whether a trough of low pressure tracking offshore of the US East Coast will be strong enough to pull Danny to the northwest and yank it towards the Bahamas rather than sending it across the Caribbean.

“The GFS model guidance is in the camp of pulling Danny across the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico from Monday throughTuesday. Beyond that, the GFS model forecasts Danny to track across the Turks and Caicos Islands by Wednesday of next week before turning to the north and northeast away from the United States.

“The European model guidance is in the camp of tracking across the Caribbean as it forecasts Danny to track across Guadeloupe, Dominica and Martinique on Sunday and then passing to the south of Puerto Rico as a weakening tropical storm on Monday. From there, the European model forecasts Danny to dissipate in the central Caribbeanon Tuesday due to very unfavorable environmental conditions.

“Beyond Saturday, I think that there are two potential scenarios that could occur with Danny:

“Scenario #1: It is possible that Danny may be pulled across the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as the ridge of high pressure to the north of Danny breaks down some as a trough of low pressure pushes across the northeastern United States. This is a scenario that the UKMET model has been forecasting for several days now and it seems some of the other models, including the hurricane track models are trending to. If this occurs, then hurricane conditions would be possible across the northern Leeward Islands, US & British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico from Monday throughTuesday. After this, this scenario would lead to Danny tracking west-northwestward to near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the central/southern Bahamas byWednesday or Thursday of next week.

“Scenario #2: It is also just as possible that Danny could be steered west and west-northwestward as a ridge of high pressure remains strong to the north of Danny. This would pull Danny across the central Lesser Antilles around Sunday or Monday as either a tropical storm or a borderline hurricane. Once Danny tracks into the Caribbean, it will encounter very unfavorable conditions and will likely weaken and possibly dissipate in the Caribbean by the middle part of next week,” according to Crown Weather Wednesday morning report.



SOUALIGA NEWSDAY REPORT

[Sanibel]

They may have underestimated the dry air.


I never pay attention until 45* anyway.

[gatorcane]

Here comes Danny:

[CourierPR]

They may have underestimated the dry air.

Some on this forum may be overestimating the dry air. Let's give this system time. It has been quite vigorous so I wouldn't be quick to bring in Bones.

[galaxy401]

I find it funny how some of you immediately gave up on the system after it got slightly less organized. This is from the discussion in the latest NHC advisory.

"there is evidence in satellite imagery of
increased inner-core structural organization since yesterday."

[Gustywind]

Stays at 2.5/2.5 and racing west...


DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
19/1145 UTC 11.0N 40.6W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
19/0545 UTC 11.3N 39.2W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
18/2345 UTC 11.0N 38.3W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
18/1745 UTC 11.1N 37.0W T2.0/2.0 04L
18/1145 UTC 10.2N 35.9W T2.0/2.0 96L
18/0545 UTC 9.5N 34.4W T1.5/1.5 96L
18/0000 UTC 9.3N 33.2W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/1745 UTC 9.8N 32.8W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/1145 UTC 9.6N 31.0W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/0545 UTC 9.8N 29.9W T1.0/1.0 96L

[fd122]

Well I hope it falls apart. Last thing our island needs right now is a strong storm.

[CourierPR]

I find it funny how some of you immediately gave up on the system after it got slightly less organized. This is from the discussion in the latest NHC advisory.

"there is evidence in satellite imagery of
increased inner-core structural organization since yesterday."

Good point and an interesting note from the experts at the NHC.

[Gustywind]

Well I hope it falls apart. Last thing our island needs right now is a strong storm.

Right! Looks like Guadeloupe and Antigua are the most exposed islands if the tracks verifies but we're really far away from reality. Whereas, we should be on our guard and be aware because of anything can happens suddenly with these storms. Let's hope for the best!

[ninel conde]

I still say it will only be a few clouds by the time it gets to the carib.

[floridasun78]

look like more dry air today and models picking up showing today sat pic

[NDG]

Wow, I had not looked at the satellite of Danny since 5 AM this morning, lol.
Not surprised at all, is just a friendly reminder of the state of MDR this year and the last gl few years, conditions don't change overnight, so Danny will be fighting dry at least over the next couple of days, then shear as it starts nearing the Windward Iskands.

[CourierPR]

It still has a vigorous circulation and seems to be re-firing convection to the south.

[Hammy]

I still doubt this will reach hurricane intensity before exiting the MDR (if it manages to hold together at all.) The center is completely exposed and I'm not sure what inner core they are speaking of considering it is reduced to a low cloud swirl with only one area of convection to the north. I also notice the intensity forecast has been dropped a decent amount. Someone compared this to Dorian 2013 but at least that looked better for more than just one day. Euro probably got it right with this one.

[NDG]

I still doubt this will reach hurricane intensity before exiting the MDR (if it manages to hold together at all.) The center is completely exposed and I'm not sure what inner core they are speaking of considering it is reduced to a low cloud swirl with only one area of convection to the north. I also notice the intensity forecast has been dropped a decent amount. Someone compared this to Dorian 2013 but at least that looked better for more than just one day. Euro probably got it right with this one.

The Euro weakens it because it has it going on a more southerly track than that of the GFS, so it will depend on the track if it weakens or not as it enters the Caribbean Sea, if it becomes a small system like the GFS and Euro show a track more into the heart of the Caribbean Sea it will fall apart due to the strong low level jet.