ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[TheAustinMan]

One thing that is working in Danny's favor is that it is still quite embedded in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, so I suspect that unlike some of the other storms further north these past few years which considerably winded down after dry air entrainment, Danny will have the aid of the surrounding moisture envelope to mix out the entrainment of dry air that began during the overnight hours. Precipitable water imagery indicates Danny is tapping into moisture originating from the area of convection to its east, which will also help in reinvigorating convection.

[wxman57]

The inner core structure is always easier to see when there is little or no convection to obscure it. I don't know that the structure is any better organized than it was yesterday, but it's easier to see today. The environment around Danny is clearly not as favorable as it was yesterday, perhaps due to dry air at multiple levels and/or subsidence in the region.

Models indicate a good break in the ridge once Danny moves west of 65W, which could allow it to recurve east of the Bahamas.

[Gustywind]

Danny to Target Lesser Antilles Early Next Week

Aug 19, 2015; 9:55 AM ET Tropical Storm Danny may become the first Hurricane of the season. Bernie Rayno has all the details.

http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/accuweather-experts/video/3832428265001/danny-to-target-lesser-antilles-early-next-week?autoStart=true

[BobHarlem]

What's going on with that area east of Danny? It that hampering it at all?

[tropicwatch]

Maybe the added moisture will help.

[SFLcane]

The inner core structure is always easier to see when there is little or no convection to obscure it. I don't know that the structure is any better organized than it was yesterday, but it's easier to see today. The environment around Danny is clearly not as favorable as it was yesterday, perhaps due to dry air at multiple levels and/or subsidence in the region.

Models indicate a good break in the ridge once Danny moves west of 65W, which could allow it to recurve east of the Bahamas.

Indeed 57 lots of variables here but as you stated the usual door could be open for a rather sharp recurve out to sea.

[Dean4Storms]

I think the sudden deepening yesterday helped Danny turn more NW into the Ridge and thus today is sucking in more dry air than yesterday. Later this Evening-Tonight it moistens back up and goes through another deepening phase once again.

[NCSTORMMAN]

I think it is about to take off again. I see that it has worked the dry air out of itself.

[TheStormExpert]

I think it is about to take off again. I see that it has worked the dry air out of itself.

Just last page you were saying it's dead though?

[tolakram]

I think it is about to take off again. I see that it has worked the dry air out of itself.

Just last page you were saying it's dead though?

Let's not bicker please, comment on the storm.


Finally in range, live visible loop.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=13&lon=-40&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=gray

[NCSTORMMAN]

I think it is about to take off again. I see that it has worked the dry air out of itself.

Just last page you were saying it's dead though?

I said the dry air is killing it and it was. There is always a chance the dry air ahead kills it and this situation is unpredictable. That is why the models are flip flopping. I will also flip flop like a good politician. lol

[TheStormExpert]

I think it is about to take off again. I see that it has worked the dry air out of itself.

Just last page you were saying it's dead though?

Let's not bicker please, comment on the storm.


Finally in range, live visible loop.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=13&lon=-40&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=gray

Doesn't look too bad at the moment when you look at it from that perspective.

[Syx6sic]

Finally in range, live visible loop.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=13&lon=-40&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=gray[/quote]
Doesn't look too bad at the moment when you look at it from that perspective.[/quote]
Kinda looks like it's trying to get a little eye going

[xironman]

Actually the fresh convection at this time is pretty good.

[Hammy]

One thing is evident on that loop, that wall of cirrus at 47W that isn't moving, which tells me that's where the shear wall is going to start.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looking at the basin WV loop it looks to me like the ULL that has been causing a lot of the shear in the Caribbean is rapidly moving off to the WSW and weakening. Also, the dust and dry air dont look as formidable as they did yesterday. In fact, the shear zone seems to be moving in tandem to Danny, and now that there is convection starting to fire over the center, I dont see why this wont be a hurricane tomorrow if trends continue.
Also, dont forget there is a fine line between shear and a nice outflow channel.

[TheAustinMan]

Convection currently building over the center, a sign that Danny is indeed attempting to override the dry air.

[emeraldislenc]

It looks like it is building back at the moment.

[tatertawt24]

Lol, this poor thing is really trying, isn't it?

[emeraldislenc]

Yes it is really trying good observation!