ATL: DANNY - Models

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS out through 189 hours looks like a clear recurve.

http://i.imgur.com/bzH6j6i.gif

A fish it is then. Good for the east coast and the usual too. We have a shield around the CONUS for the past 10 years for the most part. Interested in seeing if the Euro bows to the GFS on this one.

These model runs are pretty far out there. No track set in stone yet though the GFS has showed 3 recurve solutions in a row now starting with last night 00Z run. It might be on to something. Stay tuned.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

There's the escape route.

[Stormcenter]

I can't believe we still have at least 7 more days of model watching.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like a sharper recurve this time much ridging this run.

[NCSTORMMAN]

There's the escape route.

Just strange that the US is going to continue the streak of no major landfalls thanks to another well timed trough. Welp good news for everyone and a good fish for the Atlantic to have.

[Riptide]

It's not enough for a full recurve. Pig ridge in the central US moving in too.

[tolakram]

Not on this run.

[tolakram]

[tropicwatch]

I think if the models are still showing recurve on Friday. Then we might have something.

[NCSTORMMAN]

The best way to eat fish is to use House of Autry batter and fry them suckers till they are golden brown. Serve it with spicy ranch or honey mustard. MMMMM. j/k lol

[tolakram]

So for those making definitive statements on a single model run I encourage you to go to this link, the 500MB height map, then click on the previous run arrows to see how much it varies run to run. Too far out for the GFS to have any skill IMO.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015081912&fh=210&xpos=0&ypos=255

[NCSTORMMAN]

So for those making definitive statements on a single model run I encourage you to go to this link, the 500MB height map, then click on the previous run arrows to see how much it varies run to run. Too far out for the GFS to have any skill IMO.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015081912&fh=210&xpos=0&ypos=255

True but I feel confident in a model like with the UKMET a few days ago when it keeps showing the same scenario for three straight runs. Plus I am kind of -removed- this thing out to sea some. I am no MET though.

[wxman57]

Cold front off the East U.S. Coast next Thu/Fri spells recurve for Danny. The ridge can only build so far west north of Danny. That upper-low over the Great Lakes/SE Canada is dipping SE and the upper trof will extend south down the east coast. While not impossible the East U.S. Coast could have a significant impact, it's looking less likely.

Shutting my laptop down and heading to the San Jose airport to fly back to Houston in a couple hours.

[Bocadude85]

Usually you want to be in the bullseye 10 days out, that usually means your safe. Lets see how many times the GFS changes its forecast before this reaches the leewards.

[Weatherboy1]

Still a little way out in time of course, but obviously the GFS is latching onto the re-curve scenario, and has done so for a couple runs now. I would still give this another 24-36 hours before completely buying into that. But if the models look like this by the Thursday-Friday overnight cycle, then I'd say Danny has a much greater chance of missing the U.S. We will see.

[gatorcane]

12Z GEM drops the system. Initialization looks way off.

[tolakram]

Slowly moving in the long lala land range.

[PTrackerLA]

Stronger high building in over the mid-Atlantic this run. Still makes me say hmmm.