ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[OuterBanker]

Yep, sure enough convection building and wrapping around the center. Center is obscure again.

Danny is waving frantically saying "I'm not dead yet"

(Guess you have to be a Monty Pyton fan to understand)

[Hammy]

There's a fairly strong easterly surge right behind Danny--will this disrupt the circulation or could this add moisture to the circulation?

[deltadog03]

I still think this has a shot to make hurricane status, but I really think the EURO is going to score the coup again! This looks like it should peak over the next 2-3 days then start to get smashed/shredded into the Carrib. We shall see, but I still think NHC is too bullish on this.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT

WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
11:16 AM ECT WED, AUG 19, 2015

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

AT 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 41.1 WEST OR 1385 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND DANNY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM) FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK, DANNY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A PATH THAT WILL BRING IT IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS EARLY MONDAY. BASED ON LATEST ADVISORY, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND PATH OF DANNY, AS A RESULT RESIDENTS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA, THE REST OF THE LEEWARDS AND BVI ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO CONTINUE PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO FUTURE ADVISORIES.

REPEATING THE 11AM POSITION

LOCATION...11.2N 41.1W ABOUT 1385 MI...2235 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT 5PM TODAY

CLICK HERE FOR MORE INFORMATION

FORECASTER LENARD JOSIAH

[chaser1]

There's a fairly strong easterly surge right behind Danny--will this disrupt the circulation or could this add moisture to the circulation?

I've been noticing that area about 5 degrees ENE of Danny. I'm pretty sure that this feature might have been another area of low to mid level vorticity traveling in tandem with Danny, within the broader Inter-tropical Convergence Zone. Actually, I think that feature might have been retarding surface convergence a little bit, while causing some inflow from Danny's eastern quadrant to be pulled up and into that weaker vorticity to its ENE. Now that Danny has deepened and becoming more vertically developed, that feature is (or should be) becoming less defined and its moisture likely to be absorbed by Danny's more significant overall circulation.

[Gustywind]

Stays at 2.5/2.5...


DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
19/1745 UTC 11.6N 41.4W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
19/1145 UTC 11.0N 40.6W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
19/0545 UTC 11.3N 39.2W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
18/2345 UTC 11.0N 38.3W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
18/1745 UTC 11.1N 37.0W T2.0/2.0 04L
18/1145 UTC 10.2N 35.9W T2.0/2.0 96L
18/0545 UTC 9.5N 34.4W T1.5/1.5 96L
18/0000 UTC 9.3N 33.2W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/1745 UTC 9.8N 32.8W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/1145 UTC 9.6N 31.0W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/0545 UTC 9.8N 29.9W T1.0/1.0 96L

[tatertawt24]

Stays at 2.5/2.5...


DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
19/1745 UTC 11.6N 41.4W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
19/1145 UTC 11.0N 40.6W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
19/0545 UTC 11.3N 39.2W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
18/2345 UTC 11.0N 38.3W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
18/1745 UTC 11.1N 37.0W T2.0/2.0 04L
18/1145 UTC 10.2N 35.9W T2.0/2.0 96L
18/0545 UTC 9.5N 34.4W T1.5/1.5 96L
18/0000 UTC 9.3N 33.2W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/1745 UTC 9.8N 32.8W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/1145 UTC 9.6N 31.0W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/0545 UTC 9.8N 29.9W T1.0/1.0 96L

Newbie question What website sends out the dvorak classifications?

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 41.1W
AT 1500 UTC...MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 55 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 37W-45W. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND DANNY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY
FRIDAY. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS TCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

[Gustywind]

Stays at 2.5/2.5...


DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
19/1745 UTC 11.6N 41.4W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
19/1145 UTC 11.0N 40.6W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
19/0545 UTC 11.3N 39.2W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
18/2345 UTC 11.0N 38.3W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
18/1745 UTC 11.1N 37.0W T2.0/2.0 04L
18/1145 UTC 10.2N 35.9W T2.0/2.0 96L
18/0545 UTC 9.5N 34.4W T1.5/1.5 96L
18/0000 UTC 9.3N 33.2W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/1745 UTC 9.8N 32.8W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/1145 UTC 9.6N 31.0W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/0545 UTC 9.8N 29.9W T1.0/1.0 96L

Newbie question What website sends out the dvorak classifications?

Hello the newbie be welcomed . Here is the link http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
Regards
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

Hey peeps , where is Cycloneye? He has not posted since yesterday Hope he will come back soon .

[tatertawt24]

Stays at 2.5/2.5...


DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
19/1745 UTC 11.6N 41.4W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
19/1145 UTC 11.0N 40.6W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
19/0545 UTC 11.3N 39.2W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
18/2345 UTC 11.0N 38.3W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
18/1745 UTC 11.1N 37.0W T2.0/2.0 04L
18/1145 UTC 10.2N 35.9W T2.0/2.0 96L
18/0545 UTC 9.5N 34.4W T1.5/1.5 96L
18/0000 UTC 9.3N 33.2W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/1745 UTC 9.8N 32.8W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/1145 UTC 9.6N 31.0W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/0545 UTC 9.8N 29.9W T1.0/1.0 96L

Newbie question What website sends out the dvorak classifications?

Hello the newbie be welcomed . Here is the link http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
Regards
Gustywind

Thanks! For awhile there, the visible loop almost looked a little subtropical. It had an eye-like center but no convection around it. Now it's looking like some thunderstorms are popping up where the center was?

[deltadog03]

Lets see if it can push some of this dry air out of the way.

[crimi481]

Observing Visible loop - looks like all the moisture/clouds to it east will join/wrap around the center.
Overall structure has potential to become large in size and intensify sooner than forecast

But I am no pro

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html

[xironman]

I still think this has a shot to make hurricane status, but I really think the EURO is going to score the coup again! This looks like it should peak over the next 2-3 days then start to get smashed/shredded into the Carrib. We shall see, but I still think NHC is too bullish on this.

By day 5 the worst of the shear appears to be moving out http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=120hr

[Hammy]

18Z track keeps it at 45kt, I'm a bit surprised it wasn't lowered.
Convection again appears to be on the decrease both with Danny as well as surrounding convection, and it almost looks like the high to the north is forcing some of that drier air to the north back southward. The shear line to the northwest is also starting to push back south again, after moving a bit to the northwest the last day or so. There might be a narrow window to strengthen slightly but I'm almost willing to say that I personally find it impossible this becomes a hurricane, and likely goes with the Euro and steadily weakens starting tomorrow.

[tolakram]

Last year the GFS has real issues with not recognizing the dry conditions in the deep tropics. I'm starting to think this remains weak and south. Also note latest convective burst is done, can't seem to maintain convection.

Live loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tatertawt24]

Yeah, those thunderstorms around the center flatlined pretty quickly. Not a great sign, imo.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[chaser1]

Looking at the basin WV loop it looks to me like the ULL that has been causing a lot of the shear in the Caribbean is rapidly moving off to the WSW and weakening. Also, the dust and dry air dont look as formidable as they did yesterday. In fact, the shear zone seems to be moving in tandem to Danny, and now that there is convection starting to fire over the center, I dont see why this wont be a hurricane tomorrow if trends continue.
Also, dont forget there is a fine line between shear and a nice outflow channel.

Good observations; There are those who perhaps paint bold brush stroke declarations regarding rapid intensification or Danny's total annihilation, LOL. Danny actually has a pretty small "nasty" tight inner core. Such storms are truly more vulnerable to overall conditions around it and even subtle increases in upper level shear lower SST's, or an increase in subsidence being pulled in can cause such a system to weaken fairly quickly. On the other hand, these same smaller core storms are also subject to quicker and more temporary bursts of intensification as well. I think the fluctuation in convection is far less a factor of diurnal process and much more representative of the delicate balance of fair to good upper level conditions and 28/29 degree water temps, and the dryer Saharan layer that permeates the Atlantic between the latitudes of 10N - 25N. Danny did in fact emerge off the coast of Africa with healthy westward monsoonal surge. Even so, any number of conditions that might become even slightly less favorable might be just enough for Danny to begin to no longer burst new convection and fight off the dryer air lurking close by, or for that matter continue enough convection to warm the upper atmosphere and push back against light Southwesterly shear lurking just east of the Lessor Antilles.

So, for the short term I think Danny walks a tricky tightrope. A motion too Northwestward and dry air would likely choke it immediately. A motion too much faster and its own fragile core perhaps unable to handle the resultant net increased shear. Contrary to NHC's official forecast, I also agree with Scott here that we might more quickly see Danny reach hurricane intensity, perhaps even tonight or tomm. a.m. Thereafter, I imagine we'll see fluctuations in intensity for a couple days that may bounce Danny below and above the hurricane threshold. Another thought I'm having is that Danny might move a bit faster and just a tad more northward. Even if only a little, such increases in latitude might occur given a couple temporary convective bursts where the small core might simply "stair-step" toward the lower pressure induced bursting. I think last night's 0Z EURO was so quick to weaken Danny and did so given its smaller dynamic structure along with the overall conditions around it and might show a slightly deeper storm again, but more notably one a little bit north of present projected track. I think Danny will ultimately move just north of Puerto Rico as a moderate Tropical Storm. Beyond that, just too hard to guess given what divergent global models do with a building W. Atlantic ridge or remnant trough along the E. Conus. At the moment I have to lean toward thinking that the eventual gain in latitude will further allow dryer suppressing air just to the west and north of Danny to be ingested and ultimately impact its ability to stave off slightly less favorable upper level conditions, but I certainly do not think that the overall dynamics are simply that "cut and dry" as some would claim.

[jlauderdal]

Hey peeps , where is Cycloneye? He has not posted since yesterday Hope he will come back soon .

he is busy boarding up for this monster..

[Frank2]

Lots of dry air strato-cu and a tiny core - we've seen that before and often it does mean a weak system...