ATL: DANNY - Models

[tolakram]

Looks like a carbon copy of the 0Z run. Stays weak and south.

[tolakram]

[stormlover2013]

yes it does

[BobHarlem]

Hmm the classic two camp setup continues, the stronger system (predicted by the GFS) it statys north of islands (and potential recurve) and Euro with it moving weak into the Caribbean to get sheared apart.

Split the difference it becomes interesting, but any way you cut it we will have another day of arguments.

[tolakram]

[NCSTORMMAN]

I am looking for the steering pattern for the Euro and the strength indicator on the GFS and I would go with a mix of both.

[Weatherboy1]

Seems like in the just-uploaded/updated map here that more of the long-term gray lines are pointing WNW or W after swinging NW/N in the previous two versions. I believe those are the GFS ensemble projections, correct? And if so, that seems to be pointing to a bit less of a recurve-style scenario than the last two-three model cycles. Hmm...

[gatorcane]

I am looking for the steering pattern for the Euro and the strength indicator on the GFS and I would go with a mix of both.

Here is a comparison of the 500MB pattern as shown by the ECMWF and GFS by hour 192. Pretty good agreement for being this far out but the GFS shows a bit more of an amplified trough over the Eastern United States while the ECMWF shows a stronger Western Atlantic ridge:

GFS


ECMWF:

[tropicwatch]

yea they have straightened out a lot. Must have been the chili earlier

[stormlover2013]

yeah i am just looking at the overall pattern i don't care what the euro shows strength wise I just wanna see what pattern looks like

[gatorcane]

By hour 216 which is way out in the future, the ECMWF and GFS really disagree with the ECMWF pulling out the weakness over the Western Atlantic and building in the ridge:

GFS:


ECMWF:

[gatorcane]

[ronjon]

Seems like in the just-uploaded/updated map here that more of the long-term gray lines are pointing WNW or W after swinging NW/N in the previous two versions. I believe those are the GFS ensemble projections, correct? And if so, that seems to be pointing to a bit less of a recurve-style scenario than the last two-three model cycles. Hmm...

The average of the GFS ensembles is the AEMN line which is on the southern side of the guidance now.

[ronjon]

Shows you that the GFS operational run is a northern outlier compared to the ensembles.

[stormlover2013]

looks like euro tries to develop something right behind danny

[PTrackerLA]

Wow those GFS ensembles could be very telling. Still think the GFS will trend more towards Euro.

[blp]

Question: How do you get the high resolution for the Euro on Tropical Tidbits? All I get is 1010 as the initialization which obviously is not correct. I am wondering if Euro is not handling the current strength well.

[stormlover2013]

Well I am not worried about the strength just look at the overall pattern if the euro is right with the pattern it gets in the gulf

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Think the gfs has had it right all along track wise. That's why it was showing such a sharp turn to the north yesterday up into florida, strong trough dropping down. Just has to figure out the timing now but recurve looking pretty likely if it doesn't fall part first like the euro shows.

PT how about that much needed rain today from that small disturbance that moved inland that was in the gulf yesterday. More rain than we've seen in a month.

[Hammy]

Question: How do you get the high resolution for the Euro on Tropical Tidbits? All I get is 1010 as the initialization which obviously is not correct. I am wondering if Euro is not handling the current strength well.

I think it's only available on pay sites since the model itself isn't a free to the public one.