ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[HURRICANELONNY]

How many times in the past did the NHC say slow strengthening only to dissipate. Not even close to an exact science but it's the best we got. Sal is beating it but still holding on. If there was shear and sal it would be toast by now. So if it could shake off some Sal maybe Danny has a chance. Just my thought. Not official.

[lordkev]

I mostly just lurk, but one thing I've noticed is that people love to bet against the NHC. From what I've seen, most of the time they lose that bet.

[tatertawt24]

Oh wow, it looked to be in pretty bad shape that latest scan. I guess it still has a shot but knowing the Atlantic...

[xironman]

Lots of dry air strato-cu and a tiny core - we've seen that before and often it does mean a weak system...

Actually it looks pretty good considering it is closing in on D-Min and is breaking away from the ITCZ.

[xironman]

Last year the GFS has real issues with not recognizing the dry conditions in the deep tropics. I'm starting to think this remains weak and south. Also note latest convective burst is done, can't seem to maintain convection.

Live loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Actually I was more impressed by the anti-cyclone look of the cirrus. Dry air is at its worst when accompanied by shear that can penetrate the storms envelope.

[NDG]

Hot off the press image, convection remains minimal close to it's core.

[HURRICANELONNY]

How many times in the past did the NHC say slow strengthening only to dissipate. Not even close to an exact science but it's the best we got. Sal is beating it but still holding on. If there was shear and sal it would be toast by now. So if it could shake off some Sal maybe Danny has a chance. Just my thought. Not official.

I hope I lose big time. But looking at sat. it doesn't look good right now.

[Hammy]

Outflow may be improving, the stationary high cloud line is being pushed back a bit by the outflow.

[Blown Away]

[NCSTORMMAN]

Looks to be strengthening to me not weakening and has improved since my earlier doom statement lol. I am a career politician and flip flop like those models do. You can call me Donald Clinton lol.

[chaser1]

Last year the GFS has real issues with not recognizing the dry conditions in the deep tropics. I'm starting to think this remains weak and south. Also note latest convective burst is done, can't seem to maintain convection.

Live loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Actually I was more impressed by the anti-cyclone look of the cirrus. Dry air is at its worst when accompanied by shear that can penetrate the storms envelope.

Xironman, I couldn't agree more. Looking at the upper Cirrus screaming to the SW, a couple hundred miles southeast of the storm... plus soon moving toward DMAX, and I'm thinking Danny is gonna take on a pretty impressive appearance later today/evening. I certainly cant ignore the obvious lack of convection and visible affects that ingested dryer air has had on convective banding to form, but I do think that for the near term we are going to see an increase in convection and an overall healthier appearance. Next few days will probably exhibit the tug of war between Danny remaining insulated under its protective upper high and drying out due to Saharan intrusion. Tonight/tomorrow might be where Danny reaches its peak (a bit sooner than NHC is presently projecting)

[tatertawt24]

Really messy.

[ozonepete]

Remember this is a very young tropical cyclone in the early stages of development. Even in the best conditions they pulse up and down and the convection pops up and dies down in various clusters around and/or over the center. The one negative, possible significant dry air entrainment at mid-levels, has not happened so far and isn't happening now. So there's no reason to pronounce it dead every time the convection wanes, especially during DMIN.

As far as what will happen as it nears the islands, to bet against the NHC this far out is to lose 99 out of 100 times.

[ozonepete]

Btw, chaser1 and xironman, good discussion. You guys make storm2k look good!

[tatertawt24]

Remember this is a very young tropical cyclone in the early stages of development. Even in the best conditions they pulse up and down and the convection pops up and dies down in various clusters around and/or over the center. The one negative, possible dry air entrainment at mid-levels, has not happened so far and isn't happening now. So there's no reason to pronounce it dead every time the convection wanes, especially during DMIN.

As far as what will happen as it nears the islands, to bet against the NHC this far out is to lose 99 out of 100 times.

True -- the fear I have is that during these down cycles, he's going to enter a hostile environment and never be able to recover, since he got hit at a weak point.

[Raebie]

Thank you! I kept thinking it was pretty early in the storm's development to call things one way or another.

[Hammy]

Hurricane center mentions that the system is further embedded within the ITCZ, is this limiting convection by inhibiting convergence, on top of the dry air?

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 192032
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 PM AST WED AUG 19 2015

...DANNY MOVING MORE SLOWLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 42.0W
ABOUT 1325 MI...2130 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danny was
located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 42.0 West. Danny is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a west-
northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected
during the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Danny
could still become a hurricane by Friday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[NCSTORMMAN]

Well I thought Danny was looking better the last few hours but I guess the NHC sees that it is going to bust on initial forecast of 100 MPH and probably badly.

[chaser1]

Really messy.

Resolution has a way of changing perspectives
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html