ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[Weatherlover12]

Hello,
I am new to this page and the blog. I just wanted to say that Danny is slacking now but its to early to say its going to die out. I believe we should not write this storm off.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I am wondering if the slower forward speed will allow Danny to spin up more in it's own warm environment and lead to the strengthening that the NHC saw happening in a couple days on it's earlier report from this morning? Or is forward speed dropping because it is feeling some higher shear out in front of it?

[wxman57]

Danny does not appear to be strengthening, to me. It's struggling. Reminds me of last year. Disturbances in the MDR would be forecast to strengthen, maybe even become hurricanes, and they'd struggle to survive all the way across.

[NDG]

What a difference nearly 24 hrs can make.
The third image is the latest visible in around Danny, with the sun setting you can clearly see the Saharan Dust Danny is starting to come across, shown in the light grey shading of the visible. I am starting to even doubt that Danny might even become a hurricane before reaching the Windward & or Leeward Islands if Friday comes and Danny has not become a hurricane yet.





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[Hammy]

Danny does not appear to be strengthening, to me. It's struggling. Reminds me of last year. Disturbances in the MDR would be forecast to strengthen, maybe even become hurricanes, and they'd struggle to survive all the way across.

What are the chances of this going north of the Islands (or at least making it out of the Caribbean if it goes through the Antilles) and strengthening over open water afterwards similar to 2011-12 and last year?

[TheStormExpert]

Personally I don't know why the NHC was forecasting a 105mph Cat.2 hurricane at peak in the MDR anyways. Not to pick on them but conditions are clearly not favorable in the MDR to support anything more than a moderate TS it seems. North of 20N is where it may have a better chance IF it can survive all this.

[bahamaswx]

Personally I don't know why the NHC was forecasting a 105mph Cat.2 hurricane at peak in the MDR anyways. Not to pick on them but conditions are clearly not favorable in the MDR to support anything more than a moderate TS it seems. North of 20N is where it may have a better chance IF it can survive all this.

hindsight is 20/20

[wxman57]

Danny does not appear to be strengthening, to me. It's struggling. Reminds me of last year. Disturbances in the MDR would be forecast to strengthen, maybe even become hurricanes, and they'd struggle to survive all the way across.

What are the chances of this going north of the Islands (or at least making it out of the Caribbean if it goes through the Antilles) and strengthening over open water afterwards similar to 2011-12 and last year?

I think that there is a good chance it can track north of the islands, particularly if it doesn't dissipate before it gets there. If itmakes it far enough north then it may have a good chance of becoming a hurricane, perhaps a strong one (Bermuda area). However, I would not forecast it to become a hurricane over the next 3-5 days.

[bahamaswx]

Got another red burst over the LLC beginning to show on IR again. We'll see how long this one lasts.

[TheStormExpert]

@RyanMaue: NASA GEOS-5 dust extinction shows TS #Danny eaten by Saharan Air Layer (SAL). Soon more favorable conditions http://t.co/w0MKLCh6lU

[HurricaneRyan]

At least a minimal hurricane would be interesting.

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion raising a bit of awareness regarding Danny..


WPC/NHC FORECAST POINTS SHOW DANNY PUSHING NEAR HISPANOLA AROUND
8/25-26. DEEP SOUTH TX RESIDENTS SHOULD CHECK IN WITH THE LATEST
STATEMENTS/OUTLOOKS FROM NHC CONCERNING THE PROGRESS OF SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Well this system will go down as the biggest troller ever lol. Most of us were hyped about it and now I think it has calmed down quite a bit.

[ozonepete]

Well this system will go down as the biggest troller ever lol. Most of us were hyped about it and now I think it has calmed down quite a bit.

It's too far out from land to be anything more than an amusement right now.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Well this system will go down as the biggest troller ever lol. Most of us were hyped about it and now I think it has calmed down quite a bit.

It's too far out from land to be anything more than an amusement right now.

It amused quite a bit of us yesterday and before that lol. Very slow year and keeps trending weaker and weaker so yeah a trolling system.

[Hammy]

http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc15/ATL/04L.DANNY/tc_ssmis/color/2degreeticks/20150819.2105.f19.x.colorpct_91h_91v.04LDANNY.45kts-1000mb-114N-415W.92pc.jpg

Danny trying to form a very small, tight inner core.

[perk]

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion raising a bit of awareness regarding Danny..


WPC/NHC FORECAST POINTS SHOW DANNY PUSHING NEAR HISPANOLA AROUND
8/25-26. DEEP SOUTH TX RESIDENTS SHOULD CHECK IN WITH THE LATEST
STATEMENTS/OUTLOOKS FROM NHC CONCERNING THE PROGRESS OF SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

Nothing wrong with being proactive.

[NDG]

I just went back through the last 10 days, the windshear axis across the eastern Caribbean has been present just about every day, I never bought the idea from the models that the shear axis is going to move out of the way as Danny approaches the Islands.

[TheStormExpert]

http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc15/ATL/04L.DANNY/tc_ssmis/color/2degreeticks/20150819.2105.f19.x.colorpct_91h_91v.04LDANNY.45kts-1000mb-114N-415W.92pc.jpg

Danny trying to form a very small, tight inner core.

Wonder if this is the start of it tightening up and becoming a smaller system?

[Frank2]

The TCD was about as conservative as it could be (I think we're related)...