ATL: DANNY - Models

[blp]

Question: How do you get the high resolution for the Euro on Tropical Tidbits? All I get is 1010 as the initialization which obviously is not correct. I am wondering if Euro is not handling the current strength well.

I think it's only available on pay sites since the model itself isn't a free to the public one.

Thanks I figured that might be the case but did not know if Levi had an alternate site.

The vorticity was too weak IMO on the Euro. This thing is structurally very well organized at the lower levels.

[Stormcenter]

If it were Oct. or even Sept. I buy into the trough but not in Aug.
Anyway not ever feeling warm and fuzzy about anything the GFS has to say these days.

Think the gfs has had it right all along track wise. That's why it was showing such a sharp turn to the north yesterday up into florida, strong trough dropping down. Just has to figure out the timing now but recurve looking pretty likely if it doesn't fall part first like the euro shows.

PT how about that much needed rain today from that small disturbance that moved inland that was in the gulf yesterday. More rain than we've seen in a month.

[Blown Away]

18Z GUIDANCE:




Danny being maintained as TS/Hurricane for next 7 days.

Andrew & Frances Significant Land Impact Analogs.

[chaser1]

By hour 216 which is way out in the future, the ECMWF and GFS really disagree with the ECMWF pulling out the weakness over the Western Atlantic and building in the ridge:

GFS:


ECMWF:

Well, for what its worth.... the 192 hour CMC is also on board with the EURO indicating building heights in the far W. Atlantic, with an even larger 594 High AND also further to the West as well (here is link: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_33.png). The 500mb map CMC forecast at 216 hours shows that same 594 High as a "banana shaped" east/west ridge just east of N. Florida/Carolina's. Meanwhile, the Westerlies appear to have become much more zonal and are farther to the north. Kind of a scary pattern for the Southeast U.S. if something was lurking in the Southern Bahama's or north of Puerto Rico/Hispanola.

Wait a minute......, then again our crazy uncle to the north is also hardly even recognizing Danny at the present, and furthermore is showing a 998mb Tropical Storm in 78 hours a few hundred miles east of the North Carolina coastline; UGH...... never mind, LOL

[Stormcenter]

Don't ever like to see anything organized around the Bahamas in Aug.

[stormlover2013]

I think the GFS is struggling rightnow, if the EURO pattern stick to what it shows right now pattern wise something gets in gulf

[Hammy]

Quite a difference from yesterday with the intensity guidance. As far as ridging which models tend to handle the steering ridges/troughs better?

[PTrackerLA]

Think the gfs has had it right all along track wise. That's why it was showing such a sharp turn to the north yesterday up into florida, strong trough dropping down. Just has to figure out the timing now but recurve looking pretty likely if it doesn't fall part first like the euro shows.

PT how about that much needed rain today from that small disturbance that moved inland that was in the gulf yesterday. More rain than we've seen in a month.

The rain was wonderful we've quickly snapped out of that brutal heatwave and short-term drought! I'm beginning to think that the weaker model runs may play out and we may have to watch the remnants or what is coming behind Danny for the GOM according to 12z Euro.

[stormlover2013]

I agree tracker and which euro could be wrong who knows but I just don't see this being a fish storm if it holds together

[Recurve]

I know it's early and the analogues are not reliable forecasters, but still....very eerie anytime you see Andrew in a list of analogues. Coming up on the anniversary in five days.

Disclaimer: I am not a professional and anything I post should be taken with a tablespoon of salt. Always refer to official forecasts when making decisions.

[TheStormExpert]

18z GFS should be interesting to see if the GFS come back to reality like the Euro is showing.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro at 240 hours shows the system in the FL straits, but not that strong, the Bermuda High is flexing it's muscle as well:

[PTrackerLA]

18z GFS a bit further south and about 9mb weaker than the 12z thru 102 hours. Looks like it may be trending towards the Euro.

[Siker]

Negligible strengthening through 4 days from the GFS:

[PTrackerLA]

[SFLcane]

Into the Caribbean it is...

[stormlover2013]

Yep shift soft but prob will keep flip flopping

[SFLcane]

Luis a visit from Danny...drought

[perk]

Luis a visit from Danny...drought

That's quite a bit further south than the 12oz run.

[TheStormExpert]

Luis a visit from Danny...drought

And strengthening to strong TS.