ATL: DANNY - Models

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TheStormExpert

#501 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 19, 2015 5:35 pm

:uarrow: The 18z GFS also looks to have two weaker friends behind it! :lol:
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perk
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#502 Postby perk » Wed Aug 19, 2015 5:39 pm

Danny is just north of Haiti at hour 186.
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Siker
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#503 Postby Siker » Wed Aug 19, 2015 5:43 pm

Instantweathermaps has terrible resolution but runs so much more quickly than others.

228 hours, in the Florida Straits headed WNW.
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TheStormExpert

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#504 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 19, 2015 5:46 pm

Siker wrote:Instantweathermaps has terrible resolution but runs so much more quickly than others.

228 hours, in the Florida Straits headed WNW.

With such a forecasted small system I wonder if this is why the Euro is having trouble doing much with it? Hmmm...
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stormlover2013

Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#505 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Aug 19, 2015 5:50 pm

lol gfs is having so many problems lol, flip flop flip flop
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#506 Postby Siker » Wed Aug 19, 2015 5:54 pm

Panama City landfall at 288 hours.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#507 Postby perk » Wed Aug 19, 2015 5:54 pm

Hour 234 south of the Florida Straits moving WNW.
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#508 Postby Hammy » Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:03 pm

GFS sticking to it's guns intensity-wise, gotta give it credit for intensity consistency at least :lol:
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#509 Postby N2FSU » Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:04 pm

Image

trending towards Euro with a more westerly track?
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#510 Postby perk » Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:08 pm

Hammy wrote:GFS sticking to it's guns intensity-wise, gotta give it credit for intensity consistency at least :lol:


But not track wise.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#511 Postby perk » Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:09 pm

N2FSU wrote:Image

trending towards Euro with a more westerly track?


That's what i call a sizeable shift to the west.
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stormlover2013

Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#512 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:13 pm

Fish to the panhandle!!!! Lol atleast we can still watch and have something to do
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#513 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:14 pm

This is the problem you'll get when you have a model running 4 times a day and 16 days out. Massive flip flopping.
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#514 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:28 pm

18Z GFS going now with the Euro is far as the 500MB pattern in the long-range. No longer does it show the big trough along the Eastern seaboard of the U.S. Look how different it is from the 12Z run. Also, not sure anybody in South Florida wants to see a system in the SE Bahamas with this type of pattern this time of year.

Image
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stormlover2013

Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#515 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:31 pm

one run, will keep flip flopping or go poof gone like euro, but still long time to watch
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#516 Postby ronjon » Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:32 pm

Trending a little ominously for Fl and GOMers but still a long ways off. We get inside 5 days, then I'll start to worry.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#517 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:38 pm

ronjon wrote:Trending a little ominously for Fl and GOMers but still a long ways off. We get inside 5 days, then I'll start to worry.


inside 5 days with euro and gfs agreement but euro always takes priority until further notice...been that way for several years
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stormlover2013

Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#518 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:42 pm

euro run still scary though in terms of pattern with what its showing with that ridge because if danny does make it through there into the gom watch out
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CYCLONE MIKE
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#519 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:47 pm

Gfs is really struggling, just flopping and thrashing around like a fish out of water right now. Troughs, dry air, shear, high pressure really putting it to the test, doesn't know how to resolve things. Not even sure if can be trusted 5 days out right now.
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#520 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:49 pm

Euro and GFS basically show the same pattern and have Danny or whatever is left of it at the same area in 8-10 days. Pretty darn good agreement!
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