ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

TXNT24 KNES 200024
TCSNTL

A. 04L (DANNY)

B. 19/2345Z

C. 11.9N

D. 42.3W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED CONVECTION DURING PAST 6HRS WITH DT=3.0
BASED ON CURRENT BANDING OF 6/10. MET=3.0 ON SLOW CURVE AND PAT=3.0. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON

[TheStormExpert]

New Video Discussion on Danny from Tropical Tidbit's Levi Cowan.

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits
Wednesday evening update on Tropical Storm Danny: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... trengthen/ …

[cycloneye]

AL, 04, 2015082000, , BEST, 0, 119N, 423W, 45, 1000, TS

[NDG]

Very interesting WindSat pass from earlier this afternoon, if it wasn't for the dry air intrussion Danny would had been close to a hurricane by now.

[gatorcane]

This burst of convection firing right now is important for it to retain. Looking around the cyclone, it seems all that leftover convection "debris clouds" are getting eaten away by dry air. Wouldn't surprise me if we wake up tomorrow and just see a little blob of convection over the LLC with nothing around it, a small little cyclone that the ECMWF has been showing for many runs now.

[Gustywind]

Increasing numbers for Danny up to 3.0

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
19/2345 UTC 11.9N 42.3W T3.0/3.0 DANNY
19/1745 UTC 11.6N 41.4W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
19/1145 UTC 11.0N 40.6W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
19/0545 UTC 11.3N 39.2W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
18/2345 UTC 11.0N 38.3W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
18/1745 UTC 11.1N 37.0W T2.0/2.0 04L
18/1145 UTC 10.2N 35.9W T2.0/2.0 96L
18/0545 UTC 9.5N 34.4W T1.5/1.5 96L
18/0000 UTC 9.3N 33.2W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/1745 UTC 9.8N 32.8W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/1145 UTC 9.6N 31.0W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/0545 UTC 9.8N 29.9W T1.0/1.0 96L

[Weatherboy1]

Seems to me Danny is just going through normal pulsing up and down in intensity. Also interesting that as more time passes, models seem to be shifting back toward the west rather than a recurve track. I wouldn't write this one off yet.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Danny is really starting to fire convection up around the center but thing is dry air is killing it even as we speak. All the convection outside of the core is going "poof". To me the window for Danny is closing not opening.

[NDG]

I wouldn't be surprised if the NHC's intensity forecast comes down on the next update per the latest models' intensity forecast.

[SouthDadeFish]

Convective structure looking really good this evening. Also looks like a much smaller system, similar to what the models were depicting.

[WPBWeather]

this is for sure, one of the previous posts is correct, as we've exhausted every scenario

[Hammy]

Don't look now but it looks like the convection is starting to decrease again, same time as yesterday. Makes sense that NHC didn't raise the intensity despite the increased T-numbers, they are probably waiting for persistence. The western and northern edges of the outflow envelope seem to be flowing from the southwest now, instead of southeast, so I think the upper high may be starting to be left behind. The banding to the south and east near the center does seem to be improving though.

[toad strangler]

I wouldn't be surprised if the NHC's intensity forecast comes down on the next update per the latest models' intensity forecast.

Intensity forecasting is still the wild wild west and it's not something I ever really pay much attention to when looking at modeling unless there is a immediate threat of landfall. I understand that intensity can effect track in and of itself but why be more frustrated than need be when engaged in watching a long tracker.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Convection is about to decrease around the center here soon. I can already see it trending that way. This storm is trying hard but just can not fight off all that desert air.

[hurricaneCW]

Convection is about to decrease around the center here soon. I can already see it trending that way. This storm is trying hard but just can not fight off all that desert air.

It looks like it's doing alright to me. As long as the circulation remains impressive than anything is possible.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Convection is about to decrease around the center here soon. I can already see it trending that way. This storm is trying hard but just can not fight off all that desert air.

It looks like it's doing alright to me. As long as the circulation remains impressive than anything is possible.

Looks like it is encountering more dry air to me. I could be wrong because I am no MET (yes I say that a lot). Just not impressed by current convection trends and it has to be because of dry air.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT

WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
5:51 PM ECT WED, AUG 19, 2015

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

...DANNY MOVING MORE SLOWLY WESTWARD...

AT 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 42.0 WEST. DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND DANNY COULD STILL BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM) FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK, DANNY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A PATH THAT WILL BRING IT IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS EARLY MONDAY. BASED ON LATEST ADVISORY, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND PATH OF DANNY, AS A RESULT RESIDENTS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA, THE REST OF THE LEEWARDS AND BVI ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO CONTINUE PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO FUTURE ADVISORIES.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST.

CLICK HERE FOR MORE INFORMATION

FORECASTER KEITHLEY MEADE

[Siker]

Much of that blue (on AVN), outer convection may dissipate by morning; we may be witnessing Danny changing his overall size as he develops a new shape and in the process sheds his outer structure.

[Bocadude85]

Convection is about to decrease around the center here soon. I can already see it trending that way. This storm is trying hard but just can not fight off all that desert air.

It looks like it's doing alright to me. As long as the circulation remains impressive than anything is possible.

Looks like it is encountering more dry air to me. I could be wrong because I am no MET (yes I say that a lot). Just not impressed by current convection trends and it has to be because of dry air.

Looks like the convection is maintaining to me. New convection is firing off to the south also.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gif

[NCSTORMMAN]

I see the new convection but my question is for how long.

Dry air being pushed toward the storm from the north. Look to the northwest of the storm where the dry air is. Currently on pace to meet up with Danny.